ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

The whole strung out look that the gfs has is quite dangerous. It would cause tremendous flooding for everyone on the east coast as tropical air rides along almost a stationary front as the cut off low moves slowly eastward.

[KWT]

Looking at the models Florida could luck out if you don't believe the GFS.

Way way way way way too early to make that sort of call, I've been keen to throw my hat on a call when I confident like Danielle but this one will probably see the models shift about for a long time yet to be honest, indeed the ECM/CMC also both aim for Florida but aren't all that strong.

[Evil Jeremy]

lol, my bad then.

Looking at the models Florida could luck out if you don't believe the GFS.

The models will continue to flip flop, especially with a weak system such as 95L. I am not worried yet, but still cautious, and will be until this storm doesn't make landfall here.

[vacanechaser]

ECM/CMC also both aim for Florida but aren't all that strong.

true, but the models are showing a very large area of lower pressure.. seems to stretch it out... the storm could be anywhere in that area at the time and very well could be much much stronger...

[Aric Dunn]

What I find Curious is that the two Global models most relied upon have been showing a track across the eastern Gulf while the others are either missing what seems to be a very strong trough for this time of year. there are a couple exceptions like the CMC and the nogaps recently but they very slow in the timing of development and turning. Considering the system is likely going be a TC later today. I am favoring the Euro and GFS as for once they are nearly identical in track and intensity but the timings are a little off.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[AdamFirst]

Looks like a TD, smells like a TD. Will recon verify?

[Vortex]

I suspect theyll find close to a TS...should have matthew later today

[Aric Dunn]

With a couple semi reliable surface observations showing a nearly west wind. I would say we have a TD right now.

[cycloneye]

Plane found SW winds at 235 degrees and WSW at 240 degrees..

[HURAKAN]

next message should really nail this

[Recurve]

Wow, sure looks like it's getting together, curved inflow bands and all. Anyone have a center position estimate?

[HURAKAN]

141830 1318N 07519W 9905 00155 0084 +230 +135 259007 008 006 003 03

259 is good in my book

[tolakram]

Flagged though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Some of the models have thios going into the BOC.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_95.gif

GFDL/HWRF 06z aren't really showing much development. The models have indeed shifted somewhat west quite possibly bringing this over central america for a while. Some serious mudslides and flooding if those models pan out.

I agree, but this is going to bring some horrible rains to CA, and yes, there's a very good chance that it will also die there.

[HURAKAN]

Flagged though.

The wind my be flagged, but not the direction

[cycloneye]

For those who dont know the wind directions,here they are.

Code: Select all

Cardinal Direction Degree Direction
 
N
 348.75 - 11.25
 
NNE
 11.25 - 33.75
 
NE
 33.75 - 56.25
 
ENE
 56.25 - 78.75
 
E
 78.75 - 101.25
 
ESE
 101.25 - 123.75
 
SE
 123.75 - 146.25
 
SSE
 146.25 - 168.75
 
S
 168.75 - 191.25
 
SSW
 191.25 - 213.75
 
SW
 213.75 - 236.25
 
WSW
 236.25 - 258.75
 
W
 258.75 - 281.25
 
WNW
 281.25 - 303.75
 
NW
 303.75 - 326.25
 
NNW
 326.25 - 348.75
 


[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

recon found some west winds but the rest of the set does not look consistent. The fast motion may be keeping the south side to remain weak. with only light variable winds so far.

[HURAKAN]

well, to be fair, they descended into the clearing near the center. They haven't measured anything else at that level