ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[pgoss11]

How long will is stay on land in CA or will it miss landfall all together?

[SFLcane]

Thunderstorm activity has indeed increased quite a bit but at the same time it appears fairly linnear for the most part. Upper conditions look great could have a depression tonight.

[HURAKAN]

How long will is stay on land in CA or will it miss landfall all together?

That's the $1 million question!!

[KWT]

Yep it sure is Hurakan, the models seem to be increasingly keen on possibly it making it to Belize but frankly right now its just way too soon to call...wouldn't shock me to see this one getting close to hurricane status by then as well, esp if it can gain a little more latitude.

[HURAKAN]

the southern ship reported SW winds

[boca]

Some of the models have thios going into the BOC.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_95.gif

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[pgoss11]

This has the potential to be a very large system. So many uncertainties right now. Once it's declared we'll have more answers I think.

[KWT]

Yeah thats an impressive looking system Hurakan, few doubts in my mind that recon will find a depression...

[HURAKAN]

If the Dutch ship is correct, we could already have TD #15. RECON will confirm or deny.

[hurricaneCW]

So once again the U.S. could luck out with the system plowing into CA. I don't see how anything could survive if it spends a few days over land, there will probably not be too much left. I think the future is getting better and better for the U.S.

[SFLcane]

Some of the models have thios going into the BOC.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_95.gif

GFDL/HWRF 06z aren't really showing much development. The models have indeed shifted somewhat west quite possibly bringing this over central america for a while. Some serious mudslides and flooding if those models pan out.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know if Recon will reach the system in time for the 11AM advisory, but I am sure that a special advisory will be issued before 5PM if Recon confirms a TD.

[KWT]

So once again the U.S. could luck out with the system plowing into CA. I don't see how anything could survive if it spends a few days over land, there will probably not be too much left. I think the future is getting better and better for the U.S.

Opal is a great example though of how such a system could survive, esp if it becomes quite a broad system like the models are expecting...

[hurricaneCW]

Perhaps the one after this one will have a better chance since it'll be further north although it'll still have to deal with land masses so the strength will vary. I definitely think it's close to being a depression although it still looks a bit too linear for me.

[HURAKAN]

I don't know if Recon will reach the system in time for the 11AM advisory, but I am sure that a special advisory will be issued before 5PM if Recon confirms a TD.

They will be there b4 the 11 am advisory

[cycloneye]

Agree with HURAKAN. Plane will reach center before 11 AM as it will decend shortly.

[boca]

Looking at the models Florida could luck out if you don't believe the GFS.

[x-y-no]

I don't know if Recon will reach the system in time for the 11AM advisory, but I am sure that a special advisory will be issued before 5PM if Recon confirms a TD.

Recon will be there in plenty of time for 11am.

[hiflyer]

I don't know if Recon will reach the system in time for the 11AM advisory, but I am sure that a special advisory will be issued before 5PM if Recon confirms a TD.

Methinks it was exactly timed for the 11am. 3/4 of the way there already....getting 30-35kt surface winds from recon....little over 200 miles from the supposed 'center'....gonna be interesting.