ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[I Scream Cone]

Well, I'm in Miami, and because run after run we have been in the path to some degree, I will be finalizing any preparations within the week. Wilma was a 2 when it came across us, and it gave me a broken windshield, lots of downed trees, and no power for 2 weeks! Prepare I will.

[ronjon]

06Z GFS - heads N-NW fron western cuba into SW FL, then moves E-NE to Vero Beach, then moves N-NW up the spine of the state.

[KWT]

Yeah ronjon its quite alot like the 00z ECM but a stronger system.

Still too early to know this one and so even though Florida is looking more and more likely, we can't know how strong this will be just yet, we could have anything from a tight 3/4 type hurricane, or a loose Mitch/Isadore after they spent days overland...

[ronjon]

Yeah ronjon its quite alot like the 00z ECM but a stronger system.

Still too early to know this one and so even though Florida is looking more and more likely, we can't know how strong this will be just yet, we could have anything from a tight 3/4 type hurricane, or a loose Mitch/Isadore after they spent days overland...

Yeah KWT lots of variables in play - did you see the 00Z GFDL run - rather scary. Potential CA land interaction and the position and movement of the cutoff low. Appears that the Euro digs a deep trough that shears out the system while the GFS is holding strong to its cutoff low. If the low cuts off, it appears the atlantic ridge will strengthen and prevent NE movement out to sea. Thats why GFS wants to take the system N or N-NW past FL.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 230811
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...


THE FORECAST FOR WED-THU CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIFT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTO FLORIDA ON THU. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MORE THAN 10 DAYS AND
HAVE SEEN ALL KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
NO WAY TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL OR SOLUTION WHEN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET. OFTEN THESE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS HANG OUT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR AWHILE BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND KEEP POPS AT 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY

[GCANE]

The forecast for the cutoff low at 150 hrs over the MS-valley is showing a very strong and wide PV signature at the 340K potential-temp level.

[HURRICANELONNY]

We don't even have a depression ROCK. and your going to feed him some crow. That's like dolphins winning against the Jets 30-10 at half. I go to collect my bet money.

[cycloneye]

Remember peeps that we have a main discussion thread for 95L.

[ROCK]

the GFDL had a few scary looking runs this year....that last one was pretty scary....probably change though today...we shall see...

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 231206
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1206 UTC THU SEP 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100923 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100923  1200   100924  0000   100924  1200   100925  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  74.8W   14.2N  77.1W   14.7N  79.5W   15.5N  82.0W
BAMD    13.5N  74.8W   13.7N  77.3W   13.9N  79.9W   14.3N  82.4W
BAMM    13.5N  74.8W   13.9N  77.1W   14.3N  79.7W   14.9N  82.2W
LBAR    13.5N  74.8W   14.0N  77.8W   14.7N  80.9W   15.4N  84.0W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          43KTS          53KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          43KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100925  1200   100926  1200   100927  1200   100928  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.1N  84.6W   17.7N  88.9W   18.8N  91.9W   17.9N  93.9W
BAMD    14.9N  84.7W   16.3N  88.0W   17.7N  90.0W   17.7N  91.5W
BAMM    15.6N  84.6W   17.2N  88.6W   18.4N  91.4W   17.7N  93.3W
LBAR    16.2N  87.0W   18.6N  91.7W   20.8N  93.9W   15.4N  93.4W
SHIP        65KTS          86KTS         100KTS         103KTS
DSHP        65KTS          86KTS          39KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  74.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  72.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  12.5N LONM24 =  69.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[SFLcane]

Damn.. the GFDL blows this up into a major hurricane 937mb 134kts.

Into central america on the 06z GFDL without much development. Hopefully it fizzles.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF brushes Nicaragua/Honduras, goes thru Yucatan and emerges in GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

06z GFDL makes it a 55-60kts TS and heads just inland into Honduras and then emrges back into the Caribbean briefly before making landfall in Belize where it weakens probably into a wave and a broad circulation starts to develop and head back east from the leftovers.

If this one gets a little further north and not quite as far west, it'd be a totally different looking run IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

[/quote]

Into central america on the 06z GFDL without much development. Hopefully it fizzles.[/quote]


But notice at the end of the run it leaves a closed LLC close to the coast and appears to be moving ENE headed back toward water. If this occurs there would be a real chance it misses getting picked up by the trough which if it does get picked up by the trough will likely be sheared and not a very deep system. If it misses the trough and sits down there in the western Carib. the ridge rebuilds and we could be seeing a monster in the southern Gulf later!!!

[AdamFirst]

We don't even have a depression ROCK. and your going to feed him some crow. That's like dolphins winning against the Jets 30-10 at half. I go to collect my bet money.

I hope this prediction comes true!

[SFLcane]

12z model plots

[KWT]

Models seem to be shifting a little further west with the cutoff low/trough feature not quite as strong as expected and so its increasingly likely to spend time over the Yucatan and really weaken if it does try to develop too much before any LF. Either way the energy is going to eventually get lifted out, its just a case of where that happens really.

HWRF looks too far north to me, its had this problem numerous times recently.

[HURAKAN]

12z

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS Ensemble Loop........The GFS is really having a difficult time with the Cut off low IMO and it is throwing the evolution of 95L all over the place. I think the UL Cut off Low scenario by the GFS is WAY overdone. I cannot ever remember a Tropical Cyclone this time of year sitting around like this, would be a first for almost October!!!

A Carib. Dance.........


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _Loop.html

[redfish1]

Models seem to be shifting a little further west with the cutoff low/trough feature not quite as strong as expected and so its increasingly likely to spend time over the Yucatan and really weaken if it does try to develop too much before any LF. Either way the energy is going to eventually get lifted out, its just a case of where that happens really.

HWRF looks too far north to me, its had this problem numerous times recently.

could Texas come back into the discussion?