ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[BigB0882]

I mean lets get real....this low is going to dig all the way to the coast?

If it does then I will have some crow to eat. I don't see it happening. I have been waiting for the models to back off on it and then this run they pull it nearly to the coast! Something is crazy with that. How often does that happen in September, I wonder if anyone would know...

[SouthFLTropics]

Look at the 850mb vort, it seems like the gfs creates a storm behind 95L and it wins out (that is what causes the shift to the NE):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

So am I looking at that right...We got some Fujiwara going on in the caribbean and Matthew swirls into Nicole and then Nicole makes a run on Florida? Once again the GFS spits out the twins...

SFT

[cycloneye]

Note=Remember to post the long range runs at the thread at Talking Tropics forum.95L/ Matthew is over at 00z GFS.

[ROCK]

that cut off is there at 96hr - 252hr...thats like 6 days!!.......

[paintplaye]

Look at the 850mb vort, it seems like the gfs creates a storm behind 95L and it wins out (that is what causes the shift to the NE):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

So am I looking at that right...We got some Fujiwara going on in the caribbean and Matthew swirls into Nicole and then Nicole makes a run on Florida? Once again the GFS spits out the twins...

SFT

doubtful. It looks like the gfs creates two separate 850mb vorts and the one to the NE wins. Doesn't seem right to me.

[South Texas Storms]

im not buying the gfs right now!

[ROCK]

NOGAPS at 120hr....ULL is displaced to the east...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

It is interesting to note the NW and due north movement of the GFS tonight, instead of the prolonged NE movement of prior runs..where does this turn occur? All depends on the movement of the cut off low..If anyone tells you they are confident right now they are lying.

I've been watching the pros on this one and confidence is low right now.

On that note...good night ya'll!

[BigB0882]

Do cut off lows create a lot of rain? Would that be some kind of epic flooding if it sat in the same area for 6 days?! That seems so...unlikely...

[lester]

im not buying the gfs right now!

Why? It's been eerily consistent with a florida hit for quite some time.

[ROCK]

Do cut off lows create a lot of rain? Would that be some kind of epic flooding if it sat in the same area for 6 days?! That seems so...unlikely...

for the Carolinas maybe...east side of it...again depends if its far enough east as the NOGAPS is showing....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

NOGAPS always hangs up at 120hr...sheesh...

[Steve H.]

I agree Ivanhater. Too early to tell right now. Nite.

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS always hangs up at 120hr...sheesh...

What happened at 120?

[paintplaye]

NOGAPS always hangs up at 120hr...sheesh...

What happened at 120?

I think he meant it isn't going to hour 126 and so forth.

[TwisterFanatic]

Do cut off lows create a lot of rain? Would that be some kind of epic flooding if it sat in the same area for 6 days?! That seems so...unlikely...

Usually they just cause cloudy, cooler weather and some showers..

[FLpanhandle91]

Um... convection blowup right around LLC. TD seems imminent by 8 AM at the LATEST

[ROCK]

NOGAPS always hangs up at 120hr...sheesh...

What happened at 120?

Luis it usually goes out to 180hr....but takes for ever for the last 60hrs of the run...

[ROCK]

NOGAPS says ULL be gone with you and shoots it out the NE.....at 180hr...

our friend 95 stays around Cancun at 180hr...this is WAY different than the GFS...when I say WAY I mean WAY....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

see that look more plausible than having a cut off low hang around for 6 days over Arkansas...JMO of course...