ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

turning back nw...over key west




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like this could ride right up the spine of the state. That would be very bad for the Metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach population areas. They would be on the nasty side of things...

SFT

[Vortex]

just like the 18z ensemble...may make a run for the panhandle...

[ROCK]

its on a collision course with the cut off low.....oh man this is going fun to watch...

[Comanche]

Wow, chalk up another run of the GFS, hitting the peninsula...............again. Like Forest Gump getting to meet the president of the united states.....................again.

I suppose this too will be called as a bad run, just like all the previous ones.

[SouthFLTropics]

For just being an invest I think this may be the most interesting scenario that I have tracked in years. The entire evolution of this system and how the rest of the players affecting how it pans out is going to be fascinating...

SFT

[SFLcane]

panhandle...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

not happy about this. still too close for comfort. this far out, I would either want the bullseye on us (knowing it will change) or else have it be way way far away. i forsee a hassle in front of us.

[Vortex]

probablly ride the state of fl top to bottom...check out king 1950 amazing similarity...

[Ivanhater]

Rides due north right up the west coast and hits the panhandle...see how any small change in the cut off low means right up into the western Panhandle or east coast of Florida

[BigB0882]

If that cut off low is back off to the west then I suspect whatever 95l is by then will start to also track to the NW, wouldn't it? Eventually we will figure this out, haha

[ROCK]

Man at 252hr the cut off is still there.....wow..BTW- looks like the bend on this one.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_252l.gif

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

what is the pressure as it passes just to the west of tampa bay?

[JTD]

I would love to see specific evidence backed up by an analysis of the synoptics in play that 95L/Matthew is going to be west of say Pascagoula at the extreme western end of the envelope. To me it seems like this is going to hit somewhere on the Florida peninsula or FL west coast. Thinking it goes much further west than that seems to me to be very doubtful and ignoring the model evidence.

[ROCK]

I mean lets get real....this low is going to dig all the way to the coast?

[SouthFLTropics]

Whew...that was interesting to say the least. All I've got to say is that the folks at the NHC are gonna earn their paycheck with this one. I don't envy them one bit...Some tough calls and forecasts to make over the next week or so...

SFT

[paintplaye]

Look at the 850mb vort, it seems like the gfs creates a storm behind 95L and it wins out (that is what causes the shift to the NE):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Note=Remember to post the long range runs at the thread at Talking Tropics forum.95L/ Matthew is over at 00z GFS.

[Comanche]

I mean lets get real....this low is going to dig all the way to the coast?

not really, they put a virus in the software over the past several days, to trick everyone in to thinking there would be one.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

good grief, and good night.

sweet dreams everyone. -doubtful for me now!