ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[lester]

Maybe some of the folks that are more experts can answer this...What feature suppose to pull up this invest? Because if you look at the due west movement, you would swear it would go right into CA, and emerge right into the pacific ocean...Wouln't it have to turn northwest soon to even make it close to the Yucatan? I know I've heard the mention of a trough digging down, but the trough isn't going to dig way down ito the carib and change the direction of this thing is it? What's going to change the direction?

An epic, unseasonal trough is supposed to pick it up apparently.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Once this gets past SA it should have the inflow it needs to start wrapping up. You can see the southern inflow channel starting to develop now. It will interesting to see what happens in the morning with the first visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Evening Brian,
try to find you earlier today. Like all of us we think this feel that, but no one knows, could be a close cal for us.

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe some of the folks that are more experts can answer this...What feature suppose to pull up this invest? Because if you look at the due west movement, you would swear it would go right into CA, and emerge right into the pacific ocean...Wouln't it have to turn northwest soon to even make it close to the Yucatan? I know I've heard the mention of a trough digging down, but the trough isn't going to dig way down ito the carib and change the direction of this thing is it? What's going to change the direction?

An epic, unseasonal trough is supposed to pick it up apparently.

Actually a couple things, it will reach the SW periphery of the ridge at the same time the ridge begins weakening as the CONUS trough digs. This is why the abrupt slowing and then stall. Once the trough creates a weakness over the Gulf it should move northward, how far this trough digs and how far east it advances will likely determine the ultimate path of 95L by then!

[Ptarmigan]

Too early to tell and it is certainly possible it may go west of 90. Statistically speaking, Upper Texas Coast is not out of the woods yet, even though chance goes down.

Total
15 Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Hurricanes (Non-Major)
1882 Hurricane 3
1886 Hurricane 10
1963 Cindy
1989 Jerry

Major Hurricanes
1875 Indianola Hurricane
1941 Hurricane 2
1949 Hurricane 10
2005 Rita

Latest Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Storm 5 (1938) October 17, 1938

Latest Hurricane
Jerry (1989) October 15, 1989

Latest Major Hurricane
Hurricane 10 (1949) October 4, 1949

Probability For Landfall On and After September 15th on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 9.3 years
1 Hurricane=Every 17.5 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 35 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 86.5 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 306.3 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 1225 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 804.4 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 5,359,4 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 42,875 years

I am not declaring 95L to be written off yet. Anything can change between now and this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Slowly organizing.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just a gut feeling but I think by late tomorrow afternoon we will be looking at a system that will be getting its act together quite well. The rotation is there but it is lacking the convection. When it clears the SA coast...Watch out!

SFT

[canes04]

It sure is Luis. I'm going with a TD tomorrow afternoon and Matt tomorrow night.
This has the E GOM written all over it and if it avoids CA and goes threw the channel look out!

[ROCK]

reminds me of WPAC storms in their infantcy.....CA is going to help it tighten up also when it gets close enough....

[Aric Dunn]

it looks as though we a quickly organizing system this evening. The limited surface observations radar and satellite indicate a much more defined surface circ than earlier. tomorrow seems like we could see a TD in the evening. The developing center seems to be near 13n 72.5 west.

[Ptarmigan]

reminds me of WPAC storms in their infantcy.....CA is going to help it tighten up also when it gets close enough....

It does. Lot of WPAC storms come from monsoonal troughs.

[Vortex]

I think TD at 11am and matthew tomorrow evening...

[CDO62]

Quite the transition from a few hours ago. Looks like hes got his act together this evening.

[tina25]

it looks as though we a quickly organizing system this evening. The limited surface observations radar and satellite indicate a much more defined surface circ than earlier. tomorrow seems like we could see a TD in the evening. The developing center seems to be near 13n 72.5 west.

Agreed. I think the percentage will go up to perhaps 70% at 2am and keep rising. By the 8pm update we will have a TD. Just my guess..

[MHurricanes]

It looks like residents from the Florida Panhandle south to the Florida Keys will need to be on the alert later next week. A worst-case scenario would be a major hurricane slamming into the Tampa-St. Pete area and plowing into Orlando 85 miles to the northeast.

How long has it been since the Tampa area took a direct hit from a hurricane?

[gatorcane]

if it organizes more quickly, it will go more poleward.......

[MHurricanes]

it looks as though we a quickly organizing system this evening. The limited surface observations radar and satellite indicate a much more defined surface circ than earlier. tomorrow seems like we could see a TD in the evening. The developing center seems to be near 13n 72.5 west.

I just checked the latest RGB floater image and those coordinates look right. It is definitely showing signs of an organizing circulation.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Watching this one intently. Maybe this will be the premonition storm. Mentally preparing now for actions we may need to take if it looks like it could be a biggie. A 3 we would stay. More than that, and we will head inland off the beach. Running through the plan in my head. Just ran out of bottled water, so will need to pick more up Friday, along with ensuring we have plenty of nonperishable food and a freezer full of ice. Batteries stocked up already. Got to plan on vehicle storage and the boat issue that could be a little nightmare since our dock is being repaired right now. ugh. I know it is early, but if this looks to be a real threat, it will be a madhouse here at the beach this weekend. I would rather get a jump on things...i.e. filling the gas tank. I want to stock up before the gouging starts.

[blp]

Evening Brian,
try to find you earlier today. Like all of us we think this feel that, but no one knows, could be a close cal for us.

To early to tell, once this gets defined which I think will start happening tonight and into the morning we will see the models come into better agreement. Looks like an October pattern setup with the models even though we are still in September. We still have almost a week to look at it so it will be interesting how this plays out. I will try to reach you tomorrow.

[lonelymike]

It looks like residents from the Florida Panhandle south to the Florida Keys will need to be on the alert later next week. A worst-case scenario would be a major hurricane slamming into the Tampa-St. Pete area and plowing into Orlando 85 miles to the northeast.

How long has it been since the Tampa area took a direct hit from a hurricane?

1926

[blp]

Vorticity increasing now right over our area of interest. Buckle up the ride is about to begin.