ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[ospreygrad]

As we progress through the evening/overnight hours the convection should increase in coverage and intensity…The LLC will become better defined as SA has less of an impact on inflow from the south. 95 will begin to draw in deep tropical moisture from the SW Caribbean and Pacific.. We should see a marked increase in overall organization within the next 12-24 hours…

Yes sir, I concur!

[Ivanhater]

I think this becomes Matthew before hitting Central America ,but how it interacts with land and the cut- off low is above my pay grade

[Vortex]

I think this becomes Matthew before hitting Central America ,but how it interacts with land and the cut- off low is above my pay grade

I couldn't of said it better

[SoupBone]

I think this becomes Matthew before hitting Central America ,but how it interacts with land and the cut- off low is above my pay grade

I couldn't of said it better

It also goes to show you how complicated this thing is when seasoned board regulars don't have much to say. Pretty amazing setup, and a whole lot of waiting...

[gatorcane]

right, but I wouldn't focus on this invest if you looking for a landfalling U.S. system. It's the next invest that is supposed to develop east of this invest that becomes the main player for any kind of SE US/GOM threat....we'll have to wait another 5 days though based on what the models are saying...that is why model runs are at 240+ hours before any kind of US impact which of course may not happen given the models runs are so far out and anything could change.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree gator.
I'm thinking that we may not know until Monday whether or not we are even going to get a system at all out of all this mess.....

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami discussion, noting the 95L:

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS MOVES THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tolakram]

Evening poof in progress.

[Macrocane]

The upcoming days will be extremely interesting, the models are in pretty good agreement for the next 2-4 days but after that the very complex pattern is going to make things very intresting. It certainly bears watching not only because it may affect Central America, Cuba, Mexico and US but also because we are going to learn a lot from this scenario.

[pricetag56]

Look people the moral of the models is that the quiet period of no significant landfalls for the US is about to be over. So for all the Floridians who thought the season was over turn and not wait till there is a Wilma or Charley a few hours away.

[Blown Away]

The 1813z HPC is buying into a 18z GFS type track with 95L being near the Yucatan channel in 7 days

1813z HPC map link: (Click the Day buttons on top)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Look people the moral of the models is that the quiet period of no significant landfalls for the US is about to be over. So for all the Floridians who thought the season was over turn and not wait till there is a Wilma or Charley a few hours away.

I've seen statistical output from the models but never moral output.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

right, but I wouldn't focus on this invest if you looking for a landfalling U.S. system. It's the next invest that is supposed to develop east of this invest that becomes the main player for any kind of SE US/GOM threat....we'll have to wait another 5 days though based on what the models are saying...that is why model runs are at 240+ hours before any kind of US impact which of course may not happen given the models runs are so far out and anything could change.

The only model run that showed that solution that I'm aware of was the 12z GFS which has been replaced by the 18z showing 95L the entire way and much quicker then 244 hours.

[pricetag56]

Look people the moral of the models is that the quiet period of no significant landfalls for the US is about to be over. So for all the Floridians who thought the season was over turn and not wait till there is a Wilma or Charley a few hours away.

I've seen statistical output from the models but never moral output.

I hope u think I know that wise guy

[KWT]

The system is still too close to SA to really have a good shot at developing, but its quickly coming towards the western part of the land and soon the inflow improves quite markedly with a bigger fetch over water...

I reckon still a while to go, may get Matthew before land, may not...I personally think the models haven't got a good grasp at all on the finer details, though I think the idea that this one ends up near Florida is a likely solution...I've got my doubts it moves NE quite as much as some of the models are trying, doesn't seem all that likely based on history alone.

[MGC]

Going to have to wait and see what happens when 95L get into the western Carb. Sea. System tend to organize quickly there. Not much going on right now.....MGC

[KWT]

Yeah exactly you only need to look at what happened to the two hurricanes that formed in the W.Caribbean orginally and how badly they struggled till they got further west (those two being Alex and Karl!)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION AND NASA RESEARCH
MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[jlauderdal]

Look people the moral of the models is that the quiet period of no significant landfalls for the US is about to be over. So for all the Floridians who thought the season was over turn and not wait till there is a Wilma or Charley a few hours away.

floridians on this board all know sept/oct is primetime pal

[tshizzle]

looking worse and worse thankfully... storms down in that area scare the crap out of me as I never want to wishcast another storm after Wilma rocked me