ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

As has been sad many times the globals are notorious for being conservative on intensity...if this is where the euro is for 2 days over some of the worlds highest heat content id bet a stronger storm...probablly much stronger

It's more than that..last few runs have a very stretched out system and most of the "weather" on the east side..The U.S would not see much of this is the Euro is correct.

your absoloutely right...seems a bit to early to have such a deep pattern....

[otowntiger]

It's not even tropical anymore..a stretched out low pressure from the Caribbean to the Carolinas

Oh well, not much excitement there, but hopefully it will bring us some much needed rain here in central Florida.

[Vortex]

probablly low to mid 60's along the se coast if that verified with strong cold air advection

[Ivanhater]

Florida could have a sunny day.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
209 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 25 2010 - 12Z WED SEP 29 2010

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONING
TYPHOON MALAKAS HELPING TO DEEPEN TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
NEAR 140W...BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...AND
DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 UNITED
STATES. DAY-TO-DAY AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
FLEETING...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHOWN THE
BEST CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. PROBLEMS LIE WITH HOW
MUCH ENERGY DIVES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY...AND
WHETHER OR NOT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARING THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LURE THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
CONVERGED... SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL VARY QUITE A BIT WHEN BROWSING
THE 110 00Z MULTI-MODEL/12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. RECENT
GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SPREAD WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SWINGS IN
THE GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY THAT LEANS TO A FARTHER EAST
SOLUTION... LEANED ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL IN THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FROM NEXT MONDAY ONWARD.

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /POSSIBLY
INVEST 95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR
WESTERN CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE POINTS AGREED UPON WITH NHC KEPT
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE MORNING ISSUANCE.

IT LOOKS WET ACROSS THE EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD DUE TO THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EVEN IN A GENERAL SENSE...THE
LOCATION AS TO WHERE IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/EAST WILL BE WETTEST
REMAINS UNCLEAR...THOUGH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RUNNING BY NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

ROTH/FRACASSO

[Comanche]

As has been sad many times the globals are notorious for being conservative on intensity...if this is where the euro is for 2 days over some of the worlds highest heat content id bet a stronger storm...probablly much stronger

Why? If TCHP was all that mattered, yes, but there are far too many other factors that must gel. This vert instability seems to be a limiting factor as well as other upper air enviro perfections.

I strongly doubt we actually see too much out of 95L in its current location almost on land, and rapid westward moving track of 23mph. Maybe a second system is the solution, east as the GFS showed.

[Blown Away]

this run reminds me of Hurricane King 1950 in terms of track...also a strong la nina year

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1950_ ... on_map.png

Hurricane King's track was during a La Nina year and the 1950 season looked very similar to what we have seen during 2010 (Eerie how similar the 2 seasons tracks compare). Some of the GFS ensembles move NE out of the NW Caribbean and then bend back NNW near Florida, which is a very rare track for this area.

[lonelymike]

Florida could have a sunny day.

Not that anyone up here in the Panhandle will complain. Should be fine weather for PT at 515 in the morning

[fci]

looking at the pattern should once again cross over cuba/Sfl or just east...thats some upper low...

Tell me about it...Looks like fall might be coming in like a lion. I may have to break out the winter coats soon!!!
SFT

Do you even own a winter coat?

[SouthFLTropics]

looking at the pattern should once again cross over cuba/Sfl or just east...thats some upper low...

Tell me about it...Looks like fall might be coming in like a lion. I may have to break out the winter coats soon!!!
SFT

Do you even own a winter coat?

I assure you that after last winter I do indeed own a winter coat. I was working nights all last winter and froze my rear off.

In regards to the models and the tracks I have to agree that 1950 seems to be a very good analogy to this year with Hurricane King coming to mind.

SFT

[fci]

I assure you that after last winter I do indeed own a winter coat. I was working nights all last winter and froze my rear off.

In regards to the models and the tracks I have to agree that 1950 seems to be a very good analogy to this year with Hurricane King coming to mind.

SFT

I crave the days that I consider wearing a winter coat down here; although the last couple of days the humidity dropped and that fresh breeze has eased the heat.

I don't know if we can compare many seasons to 1950. I just read up on it and it was bizarre with a storm that looped 3 times, hit Cedar Key twice. King was scary in that after it passed over Cuba it dropped 33 mb in pressure prior to cutting a swath through South Florida.

This season is shaping up to be unusual with what may be two distinct parts; the Cape Verde recurve season and the NW Carib season. Let's hope the second one is not so pronounced.

[ConvergenceZone]

It would be quite funny if absolutely nothing becomes of this wave and the models gradually turn away from development(like they have been on the intensity). For all we know, we might be looking at nothing next week....

[otowntiger]

It would be quite funny if absolutely nothing becomes of this wave and the models gradually turn away from development(like they have been on the intensity). For all we know, we might be looking at nothing next week....

In my opinion its starting to look that way. It seems that many times the ones we anticipate the most and the longest don't pan out. It's the surprise pop-ups that ocur much more locally that give us much more to deal with.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think a Storm/Hurricane will form in the Carribean in the next 2 weeks. That's all I know.

[Vortex]

NWS miami snipet:


EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS MOVES THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...PLEASE
REFER TO THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

[Florida1118]

NWS Tampa mentioned it also...snipet

"THE FIRST BIG CONCERN IS IF THIS
LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF AND
GFS WANT TO PUSH A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD FROM THE CARRIBEAN
HELPING TO KEEP THE EFFECTS OF THE OF THE MID LATITUDE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT CONCERN IS THE FORMATION OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE STATE. ECMWF IS
MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PUSHING EXCESS
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUES. REGARDLESS...SINCE THESE
FEATURES AND THEIR IMPACTS ARE IN THE TAIL-END OF THE MODEL
PACKAGES AND THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL NOT BITE ON THE
SOLUTIONS UNTIL THE SYSTEMS ACTUALLY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AND MODELS
BECOME MUCH MORE CONSISTENT."

[caneseddy]

18z ATCF model tracks

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... asts-photo

[Vortex]

NAM 18Z H36 developent underway


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[terrapintransit]

18z ATCF model tracks

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... asts-photo

That is so crazy how all the models turn extreme north right before land!

[Vortex]

H42 a little stronger



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif