ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

H144 Euro very similar to GFS heading NE south of western cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

SE-US or stays south..been "gutting" that feeling since day 1.

[SouthFLTropics]

H144 Euro very similar to GFS heading NE south of western cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

If that pans out it may clear us to the East...

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Very weak low..1004 mb

[wxman57]

I particularly like when the GFS takes the merged storm to North Carolina at about day 13-14 and then moves it back south then southwest to the southern Florida Peninsula, blocked by high pressure to the north. Not only that, it breaks up into 3 separate storms! Somehow I doubt that what the GFS is predicting will materialize past about 120-144 hrs.

[Vortex]

looking at the pattern should once again cross over cuba/Sfl or just east...thats some upper low...

[SouthFLTropics]

looking at the pattern should once again cross over cuba/Sfl or just east...thats some upper low...

Tell me about it...Looks like fall might be coming in like a lion. I may have to break out the winter coats soon!!!
SFT

[Wx_Warrior]

Agree wxman...gfs, well, is Good For Something.

[otowntiger]

Very weak low..1004 mb

Yes, I saw that. If the storm doesn't develop any more than that, all the discussion about track may prove to be a lot of hype over nothing.

[Vortex]

this run reminds me of Hurricane King 1950 in terms of track...also a strong la nina year

[Vortex]

Slowly NNE at 168




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[otowntiger]

Regardless this looks to be one heck of a large storm in the making....

yes according to that model large but fortunately not very powerful at all.

[Vortex]

notice how displaced the ridge is to the east...should ride right up the coast

[ROCK]

Where's rock....

Oh I am here.....guys got to work to pay the bills... .interesting runs and to me its seems the trof is not going to dig to Antartica after all..... We need to get into the short range runs before the models will get a better handle....the GFS is on the koolaide again...

[Ivanhater]

It's not even tropical anymore..a stretched out low pressure from the Caribbean to the Carolinas

[Vortex]

As has been sad many times the globals are notorious for being conservative on intensity...if this is where the euro is for 2 days over some of the worlds highest heat content id bet a stronger storm...probablly much stronger

[Vortex]

how about that set-up at the end of september...

[Ivanhater]

As has been sad many times the globals are notorious for being conservative on intensity...if this is where the euro is for 2 days over some of the worlds highest heat content id bet a stronger storm...probablly much stronger

It's more than that..last few runs have a very stretched out system and most of the "weather" on the east side..The U.S would not see much of this is the Euro is correct.

[Vortex]

and just a couple of runs ago we had close to a cat 4 indicated by the euro....

[Ivanhater]

It split the low