ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

I also agree Ron....

[Vortex]

Where's rock....

[MWatkins]

MW,

what’s your take on the 12Z GFS….you break these down well.

Gosh, Vortex, thanks for asking...guess I have to answer now

I think it's having trouble with a relatively complicated pattern. It's been wanting to develop a 2nd cyclone for days now, and somehow the eastern most system eats what will be Matthew in the extended.

Also, the land interaction problem keeps cropping up, and as a result it's a weaker system for longer. Also, the difference in the low over the central US is quite pronounced from previous runs in the extended period...carving out less of a path for 95L, but then making an opening for the system behind 95l.

This is going to be a pattern event. Strong high in the SW Atlantic, you have to look for a low to form on the SW side to balance that out. The GFS is getting the idea, and is showing a pattern favorable for a hurricane in the NW Caribbean/SE Gulf in the next 10 days. The GFS is simply having issues with the details of that pattern storm in terms of how it evolves.

With the favorable MJO moving in with this paticular pattern set up...I feel confident we will be dealing with something coming north out of the Caribbean next week...and I think the GFS will sort this out by the weekend.

MW

[Vortex]

MW,

what’s your take on the 12Z GFS….you break these down well.

Gosh, Vortex, thanks for asking...guess I have to answer now

I think it's having trouble with a relatively complicated pattern. It's been wanting to develop a 2nd cyclone for days now, and somehow the eastern most system eats what will be Matthew in the extended.

Also, the land interaction problem keeps cropping up, and as a result it's a weaker system for longer. Also, the difference in the low over the central US is quite pronounced from previous runs in the extended period...carving out less of a path for 95L, but then making an opening for the system behind 95l.

This is going to be a pattern event. Strong high in the SW Atlantic, you have to look for a low to form on the SW side to balance that out. The GFS is getting the idea, and is showing a pattern favorable for a hurricane in the NW Caribbean/SE Gulf in the next 10 days. The GFS is simply having issues with the details of that pattern storm in terms of how it evolves.

With the favorable MJO moving in with this paticular pattern set up...I feel confident we will be dealing with something coming north out of the Caribbean next week...and I think the GFS will sort this out by the weekend.

MW

Thanks Mike…always the voice of reason

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS has a 989mb storm brushing Miami in 288 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[hurricaneCW]

This is extremely complex and there's been a lot of time invested in this system, so I do hope we have something to show for it. The gfs is completely loopy, There's zero consistency, it's all over the place. I'm sticking with the other models and say that the storm will either make landfall or stay just offshore CA, head NW either into the Yucatan or just to the east of it, and then head NNW/N and then NE into the Northeastern gulf from east of Louisiana to Florida.

[KWT]

The GFS really is keen on this 2nd system, It does make a certain amount of synoptic sense that in a very favourable set-up something else may try and take advantage of a flabbier low if it spends lots of time overland and weakens but any such feature almost certainly be a satelite feature much like what Alpha was with Wilma back in 2005.

GFS just seems to have lot the plot on its 12z, not by the storm being there, thats possible, but by just how strong it makes that 2nd system.

Models are gonna have a horrid time this week!

[ronjon]

IH, the NOGAPs & CMC seem like a lot more reasonable runs given the time of year. They also line up well with the Euro ensemble run. Interesting to see what the operational ECM shows today.

I agree Ron....this situation is so complex...remember the days of the simple ridge and weakness placement?

yeah, this is potentially evolving into a Charley like situation with the position of the trough and cut-off low. I remember what a big difference 50-100 miles made on that storm, and that was the error in the short range guidance. The models do a much poorer job in the long range with rapidly changing synoptics or positions of cut-off lows. They tend to move out the cut-offs too fast. We also usually only see cut-offs in the winter and spring, not late September. The GFS appears to be suffering from convective feedback issues with the second low pressure system too. Not much clarity for now.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian

[Wx_Warrior]

I would even buy the idea this system says far south.

[Vortex]

Are we getting any additional data from the PREDICT team into the models?

[Vortex]

Regardless this looks to be one heck of a large storm in the making....

[KWT]

CMC looks very Opal like actually, we are getting close to the time of year now where even that far south a decent upper trough will have enough strength to lift it out at the first time of asking...BUT with a cutoff low things do get much more convolted!

Good for discussion though!

[ronjon]

HPCs take. Like to know the details of their NHC conference call.

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONING
TYPHOON MALAKAS HELPING TO DEEPEN TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
NEAR 140W...BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...AND
DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 UNITED
STATES. DAY-TO-DAY AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
FLEETING...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHOWN THE
BEST CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. PROBLEMS LIE WITH HOW
MUCH ENERGY DIVES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY...AND
WHETHER OR NOT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARING THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LURE THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
CONVERGED... SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL VARY QUITE A BIT CONSIDERING
THE MOST RECENT 90 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /INVEST
95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN
CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE DETAILS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
NHC AT 16Z. STAY TUNED.

[Wx_Warrior]

Good ol' CMC

[Dean4Storms]

One thing about that GFS run, you'd have TS force winds clear up to the Carolina's with the pressure gradient with the low near Miami!

[jlauderdal]

The GFS really is keen on this 2nd system, It does make a certain amount of synoptic sense that in a very favourable set-up something else may try and take advantage of a flabbier low if it spends lots of time overland and weakens but any such feature almost certainly be a satelite feature much like what Alpha was with Wilma back in 2005.

GFS just seems to have lot the plot on its 12z, not by the storm being there, thats possible, but by just how strong it makes that 2nd system.

Models are gonna have a horrid time this week!

plenty of juice to work with but i would be surprised two see two systems coexist in such close proximty, i suppose if 95 were to diminish than the system to the east could become dominant, it could work but higher confidence of course if the gfs can get to a one system solution

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

very weak system ..120 hours

[caneseddy]

12z Euro

very weak system ..120 hours

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

Interesting that the cut-off low is more eastern than it was on the 00z run; if you recall the 00z run had it over central MO and now it has it a bit east closer to Memphis

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 221835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100922 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100922  1800   100923  0600   100923  1800   100924  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  71.3W   13.0N  73.3W   13.4N  75.6W   13.9N  77.6W
BAMD    12.6N  71.3W   12.8N  73.7W   12.9N  76.2W   13.0N  78.8W
BAMM    12.6N  71.3W   12.9N  73.4W   13.2N  75.7W   13.5N  78.0W
LBAR    12.6N  71.3W   13.0N  74.7W   13.6N  78.4W   14.1N  82.0W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          39KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          39KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100924  1800   100925  1800   100926  1800   100927  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N  79.7W   15.9N  84.0W   17.6N  88.0W   18.3N  90.7W
BAMD    13.2N  81.2W   14.3N  85.4W   16.2N  88.1W   17.7N  89.4W
BAMM    14.0N  80.2W   15.2N  84.7W   17.0N  88.5W   17.7N  90.8W
LBAR    14.7N  85.6W   16.4N  92.0W   11.8N  93.7W   13.4N  93.7W
SHIP        68KTS          93KTS         109KTS         116KTS
DSHP        68KTS          56KTS          51KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.6N LONCUR =  71.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  67.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  12.2N LONM24 =  64.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM