ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ROCK]

last nights 0z CMC long range didnt have the cut off low that is now in the picture.....should be updating shortly...

[Vortex]

00Z canadian long range at h168 heading NE



http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[ROCK]

right on cue...Pensacola huh?....hmmm I wonder where I have heard that before Ivan....

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's see if the man JB nails this one...night all!!!

[Vortex]

h192 bk nw


http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[Vortex]

H216 landfall pcola..Hello Ivan......






http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[Vortex]

240 due west to LA


long range looks whacked



http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[Ivanhater]

H216 landfall pcola..Hello Ivan......






http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

I hate cut- off lows..they make forecasts, especially tropical ones extremely difficult!

Canadian is a bit more realistic with the trough lifting out and not digging extremely far south....long few days ahead for the Gulf

[lonelymike]

H216 landfall pcola..Hello Ivan......






http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

Doesn't look to be handling the cutoff very well. At least it has come east from NO since the last run. It's now the left outlier. Which is good since Ivan won't have to chain himself to the Floribama

[ROCK]

240 due west to LA


long range looks whacked



http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

ok whos going to dare me on west of NO??

the cut off low look to exit fairly quickly in this run...the void fills and we get the high pushing 95 back NW....interesting...

[ROCK]

H216 landfall pcola..Hello Ivan......






http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

I hate cut- off lows..they make forecasts, especially tropical ones extremely difficult!

Canadian is a bit more realistic with the trough lifting out and not digging extremely far south....long few days ahead for the Gulf

agree...it also does stall 95 in the GOH for days and days ala GFS.....

[Ivanhater]

Here is a post from JCONSOR (Pro met from eastern and s2k)

One thing to note, though - the ECMWF does rebuild a zonally oriented ridge over China, Taiwan and the far western Pacific by day 7-10. This suggests the ridging over the SE US, W Atlantic and eastern Gulf would likely rebuild by late next week."

[WeatherEmperor]

240 due west to LA


long range looks whacked



http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

ok whos going to dare me on west of NO??

the cut off low look to exit fairly quickly in this run...the void fills and we get the high pushing 95 back NW....interesting...

I will take that challenge. I ain't going west of 90W. Quote me on that and put it on the tabloids front page, back page, middle page, whatever page you wanna put it. No way it's happening.....

[ROCK]

240 due west to LA


long range looks whacked



http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

ok whos going to dare me on west of NO??

the cut off low look to exit fairly quickly in this run...the void fills and we get the high pushing 95 back NW....interesting...

I will take that challenge. I ain't going west of 90W. Quote me on that and put it on the tabloids front page, back page, middle page, whatever page you wanna put it. No way it's happening.....

smiley faces mean I was joking....as typing in jest....but I will quote you though for my records and put it in your file....

[Vortex]

Here is a post from JCONSOR (Pro met from eastern and s2k)

One thing to note, though - the ECMWF does rebuild a zonally oriented ridge over China, Taiwan and the far western Pacific by day 7-10. This suggests the ridging over the SE US, W Atlantic and eastern Gulf would likely rebuild by late next week."

Those teleconnections look right on....as is usual timing is everything or close to it.

[southerngale]

0z EURO 192 hours





216 hours

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro agrees sorta with GFS-but looks more like a Noreaster headed up the east coast

NONtropical

[ronjon]

06z GFS - Hurricane King or Donna type track.

[ronjon]

[GCANE]

The 06Z GFS is still persistant with the MS_Valley cutoff low.

All NCEP ensemble members are making the sharp right-hand turn.

When is another matter, depends a lot on both strength and timing of the cut-off low and 95L.

Still a chance this could run into Central America before making the turn.