ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ROCK]

Supposed to be lows in the 60's here in SETX next week!

upper 60's....but yeah technically speaking.....

[TwisterFanatic]

fwiw, There is supposed to be lows in the mid 40's here in Oklahoma. So maybe the trough isn't being overdone.

[Vortex]

Just remember we are dealing with a cut off low and models are notoriously bad at handling these patterns even in the short term much less the long term. I have a hard time seeing the models pick an area for landfall this early and stick to it with the complex evolution at play...just my 2 cents.

Well said, a month from now this latest GFS run might be a shoe-in....but late september/early october might be overdone...and IF it lifts out then we start back at square 1.....For now we can only go on the best guidance we have

[Comanche]

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

Sep 15th, post Ike, Very nice cool shot indeed. Low of 64, high of 81. 62/79 on the 16th.

[SFLcane]

Just remember we are dealing with a cut off low and models are notoriously bad at handling these patterns even in the short term much less the long term. I have a hard time seeing the models pick an area for landfall this early and stick to it with the complex evolution at play...just my 2 cents.

Well said, a month from now this latest GFS run might be a shoe-in....but late september/early october might be overdone...and IF it lifts out then we start back at square 1.....For now we can only go on the best guidance we have

The GFS though has been rather persistent with this deep trof run after run.

[Vortex]

We dropped into the 50's post wilma....it was very chilly for late october by south florida standards...With no power for 8 days it wasnt bad at all temp wise

[Vortex]

00Z canadian landfall in 72 exactly where GFS/ECM have it




http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_072.jpg

[Vortex]

Near belize 8am Sunday



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg

[Vortex]

H120 turning N, east side of yucatan


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_120.jpg

[Ivanhater]

Canadian and Nogaps heading North off the tip of the Yucatan

[Vortex]

H144 slowly north...very powerful cutoff low....long range will probablly take this nne/ne



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

[ROCK]

I see the CMC is liking twins also....also there really is no stalling as the GFS was showing....for day and days

[lonelymike]

Dunno GFS did a pretty good job predicting the formation of this invest. I wouldn't be so quick to bash it about predicting the trough/cutoff low/cold front just yet.

[Vortex]

Canadian and Nogaps heading North off the tip of the Yucatan

sure is......



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Wx_Warrior]

Took GFS weeks to jump on board with Karl...

[ROCK]

NOGAPS at 180hr and CMC at 144hr are in close agreement...at 180 the GFS has 95 sitting in the gulf of Honduras for a few days....

[lonelymike]

NOGAPS at 180hr and CMC at 180hr are in good agreement...at 180 the GFS has 95 sitting in the gulf of Honduras for a few days....

That's like saying Moe and Curley are Einstein twins

[ROCK]

NOGAPS at 180hr and CMC at 180hr are in good agreement...at 180 the GFS has 95 sitting in the gulf of Honduras for a few days....

That's like saying Moe and Curley are Einstein twins

I had to edit that....getting late....who are the Einstein twins?

[lonelymike]

Albert and his little known brother Iglasius.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian..Pensacola