ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ROCK]

well at least its not showing it moving out in 300+ hrs.....time wise it makes sense....it makes the connection and across FL up the EC....bad news if that verified...

[Ptarmigan]

Whatever the models predict, 95L is likely to develop. The question is where it goes.

[South Texas Storms]

do you guys think the models are over-doing this trough? it looks gigantic.

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]I would be shocked to see this this early

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]

that a serious trof....deep for this time of year...

[Vortex]

This would be some storm....Very large so it would effect many people....

[Ivanhater]

I would be shocked to see this this early

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]

that a serious trof....deep for this time of year...

Digging all the way to Central America!

[LaBreeze]

Whatever the models predict, 95L is likely to develop. The question is where it goes.

True, a lot depends on the strength of the High in the SE US and the incoming front. Timing is everything ~

[ROCK]

I would be shocked to see this this early

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]

that a serious trof....deep for this time of year...

Digging all the way to Central America!

no doubt bro....

[Vortex]

It appears more and more likely this will head NNE/NE ... FL may be the target...Way to early to call...Lets see how the rest of the overnight guidance handles the cutoff low.....

[Ivanhater]

Guess I need to bust out my winter coats according to the GFS

[South Texas Storms]

ivan do you think the trough will really be that strong? im having trouble buying it...

[ROCK]

agree.....get out the snow plows....

[Comanche]

:uarrow: agree.....get out the snow plows....

Well, to be fair oh mighty doubter, just remember what happened in Houston, post Ike. That was some cool trough and made the first couple of days quite nice. Sep 13/14 if I remember correctly.

[BigB0882]

Im just waiting for the westward trend to begin as the time frame gets closer. Troughs have been overdone all season long and I think this looks like it could be hugely overdone although anything is possible. I'm still going with SC Louisiana to the Big Bend of FL for landfall.

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps out to H120....just east of the yucatan...looks identical to the ecm.....



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[hurricaneCW]

I'm guessing the storm would be turning extra tropical after it passes by Florida, right? Still, the gfs has a strong, large system packed with moisture tearing up the eastern seaboard. Bye bye drought with that run. Yet I wonder how strong the system will really get, the gfs has it spinning offshore in the highest heat content in the basin for a couple of days.

[Wx_Warrior]

Supposed to be lows in the 60's here in SETX next week!

[ROCK]

:uarrow: agree.....get out the snow plows....

Well, to be fair oh mighty doubter, just remember what happened in Houston, post Ike. That was some cool trough and made the first couple of days quite nice. Sep 13/14 if I remember correctly.

Yeah I remember.... I had one good day of lower humidity...then back up into the low 90's....

I am doubting the trof...it clears the entire GOM, the Yucatan, all of FL, half of Cuba....into CA....welcome to winter boys!!!!

[Ivanhater]

Just remember we are dealing with a cut off low and models are notoriously bad at handling these patterns even in the short term much less the long term. I have a hard time seeing the models pick an area for landfall this early and stick to it with the complex evolution at play...just my 2 cents.

[hurricaneCW]

Im just waiting for the westward trend to begin as the time frame gets closer. Troughs have been overdone all season long and I think this looks like it could be hugely overdone although anything is possible. I'm still going with SC Louisiana to the Big Bend of FL for landfall.

Except that we're seeing more of a cut off low than an actual trough. There is huge unpredictability when it comes to cutoff lows, and if they are strong and persistent enough, they are more than capable of creating a huge weakness all the way into the Caribbean especially es we head toward the end of the month and into October.