ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

Yeah its looking very Wilma-esque, though I'm banking on the models to change as its still fairly far out.....

[Florida1118]

Of All Hurricanes to Affect W. FL, most all came from the C or W Caribbean. This is all TCs from Sept.-Nov.

[gatorcane]

[IMG=http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/4671/septtonov.png][/IMG]

Of All Hurricanes to Affect W. FL, most all came from the C or W Caribbean. This is all TCs from Sept.-Nov.

That is correct, South Florida's month for hurricanes is October actually as most hurricanes have made landfall in this month than any other month, though September is the month where most major hurricanes have made landfall.

Looks like if this impacts us, would be still in September.

[Vortex]

Also, the 18Z GFS Ensembles keep it just NE of Honduras without a landfall then N towards Cuba/FL...That would be a worst case scenario as this system would likely become very powerful...


18Z GFS ensemble H120

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[GTStorm]

Topic has been up 12 hours and already 12 pages worth of posts.

Compare that to our recurves for indication of what drives interest on this board whether folks want to admit it or not.

[johngaltfla]

18Z GFS Ensemble H192 SW FL




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

Vortex, I did not need to see this. I've seen this movie before and it was called Charlie. We still have very warm SSTs and that does provide room for rapid strengthening should it hit that gasoline while moving north.

Nothing against my friends in CA but we really don't need this one...

[Dean4Storms]

Increasingly looking like a Florida future landfall with the pattern seen coming. Let's hope vertical shear is disruptive as it comes northward or I guess there is a possibility of dry air getting entrained.

[Vortex]

The 18Z ensembles are well right of the operational and faster more in line with the Nogaps and a tad slower than the Euro.

[johngaltfla]

Topic has been up 12 hours and already 12 pages worth of posts.

Compare that to our recurves for indication of what drives interest on this board whether folks want to admit it or not.

A lot of us remember 04-05....that's why. And this storm if it doesn't fizzle is going to hit someone.

[Blown Away]

18Z GFS Ensemble H192 SW FL
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

Looking at that Bermuda High it seems the system would move more N than NE as it approaches SFL.

[cycloneye]

Lets only discuss about the model runs here and reserve the main discussions about the systems future in terms of being favorable or not for the 95L discussion thread.

[Blown Away]

Topic has been up 12 hours and already 12 pages worth of posts.

Compare that to our recurves for indication of what drives interest on this board whether folks want to admit it or not.

I disagree, the folks that post regularly post comments for all the storms. There is much more uncertainty w/ 95L and that is what drives the comments. Their wasn't much uncertainty w/ the recurve storms, we all knew they would be recurves from the beginning and the comments were mostly on how beautiful the storms were. If 95L threatens land of course the board will be popping, but most of the folks here tonight are posting no matter where a storm is.

Sorry Luis, I'm done!!

[Vortex]

Does anyone know what the Florida State Superensemble indicated...

Source:Wikipedia

For those not familar with this model:


FSSE Florida State Superensemble is a model first used operationally in the 2005 hurricane season and has shown to verify well in tropical cyclone track forecasting. Little is publicly known about this model because the model is owned by a private company which charges for access to the data

[gatorcane]

Looks at that cut-off low the GFS is developing in the Southern plains....that would certainly induce northward motion out of the Western Caribbean....

[SouthFLTropics]

Topic has been up 12 hours and already 12 pages worth of posts.

Compare that to our recurves for indication of what drives interest on this board whether folks want to admit it or not.

I disagree, the folks that post regularly post comments for all the storms. There is much more uncertainty w/ 95L and that is what drives the comments. Their wasn't much uncertainty w/ the recurve storms, we all knew they would be recurves from the beginning and the comments were mostly on how beautiful the storms were. If 95L threatens land of course the board will be popping, but most of the folks here tonight are posting no matter where a storm is.

Sorry Luis, I'm done!!

I agree with this statement 100%...

Now as far as the models go I think the 00Z and the 12Z models about three days from now will give us a decent picture of the future of 95L (Matthew). It should be noted that the South Florida news media is already getting their feet wet and setting everyone up for hype mode.

SFT

[srainhoutx]

Topic has been up 12 hours and already 12 pages worth of posts.

Compare that to our recurves for indication of what drives interest on this board whether folks want to admit it or not.

A lot of us remember 04-05....that's why. And this storm if it doesn't fizzle is going to hit someone.

I have to agree. Now back to 95L...

[Vortex]

JMA model...while not really talked about much or seemingly respected does have the system near western cuba at H168. The point is there is a growing strong consensus from guidance that this storm may be very near western cuba in a week...

JMA H168:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[Vortex]

MM5 18Z



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Vortex]

KHRM 18Z


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Vortex]

18Z HWRF shows up well here. Notice NNE movement at end


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html