ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Local NWS says Cold Front is supposed to clear the area around Destin this weekend so that is somewhat encouraging news. Low is 59 Monday nite

59? Wow. I wish that was expected here. I'm gonna miss swimming, but also looking forward to cool weather.

As for 95L, I see nothing to worry WGOM'ers and feel like this will be a Central to East GOM threat. JMO and I am not a trained met nor do I play one on s2k.

Would not be surprised to see lows in our area in the 60's Monday morning and near 60 Tuesday morning especially over the Toledo Bend region. Much lower dewpoints as well.

To keep this on-topic, I also see no threat to the western Gulf from this developing system....season likely closing for Texas next week.

[KWT]

Ivanhater is right expect this to be all over the place in terms of models, what is growing into a good consensus is a landfall in CA before possibly emerging into the NW Caribbean...

Can't rule out the system just trundling westwards and being drawn over the YUcatan, if that happened wouldn't be much of a system left to hit Florida...meanwhile if it curves up a touch sooner and misses land totally, you probably have a 4/5 drifting close to the Yucatan as the ECM shows.

[Dean4Storms]

Local NWS says Cold Front is supposed to clear the area around Destin this weekend so that is somewhat encouraging news. Low is 59 Monday nite

59? Wow. I wish that was expected here. I'm gonna miss swimming, but also looking forward to cool weather.

As for 95L, I see nothing to worry WGOM'ers and feel like this will be a Central to East GOM threat. JMO and I am not a trained met nor do I play one on s2k.

No way it gets down to 59 in Destin Monday night. Maybe upper 60's, the Bay is still too warm for that low of a drop. Now niceville and FWB could see that.

[southerngale]

Would not be surprised to see lows in our area in the 60's Monday morning and near 60 Tuesday morning especially over the Toledo Bend region. Much lower dewpoints as well.

To keep this on-topic, I also see no threat to the western Gulf from this developing system....season likely closing for Texas next week.

Thanks for the update, Greg.

And thanks for keeping SE TX safe this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL gets into Nicaragua,but bounces back to Caribbean Sea at the end of run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

Would not be surprised to see lows in our area in the 60's Monday morning and near 60 Tuesday morning especially over the Toledo Bend region. Much lower dewpoints as well.

To keep this on-topic, I also see no threat to the western Gulf from this developing system....season likely closing for Texas next week.

Thanks for the update, Greg.

And thanks for keeping SE TX safe this hurricane season.

you have just jinxed us all!!

[Macrocane]

The track looks similar to that of Ida, makes landfall in Nicaragua and emerges in the Gulf of Honduras, what happens later is still too difficult to determine but certainly it may survive the Central America landfall if it tracks across the flattest terrain of the region.

[Frank Smith]

Would not be surprised to see lows in our area in the 60's Monday morning and near 60 Tuesday morning especially over the Toledo Bend region. Much lower dewpoints as well.

To keep this on-topic, I also see no threat to the western Gulf from this developing system....season likely closing for Texas next week.

I didn't realize the season closed for Texas so early.




*edited by sg to fix quote

[southerngale]

Would not be surprised to see lows in our area in the 60's Monday morning and near 60 Tuesday morning especially over the Toledo Bend region. Much lower dewpoints as well.

To keep this on-topic, I also see no threat to the western Gulf from this developing system....season likely closing for Texas next week.

Thanks for the update, Greg.

And thanks for keeping SE TX safe this hurricane season.

you have just jinxed us all!!

Noooo.... I meant so far. And notice Greg said "likely" which is very logical. I am not dumb enough to declare emphatically that Texas' season is over. I remember well what happened last time a Texan did that.


This is the models thread though, so.... any models showing Texas? heh

[Vortex]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H144..very similar to nogaps nearing western Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

[Vortex]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H180 upper keys/sfl


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 220043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC WED SEP 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100922 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100922  0000   100922  1200   100923  0000   100923  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  65.2W   12.5N  67.7W   12.9N  70.3W   13.0N  73.1W
BAMD    12.3N  65.2W   12.6N  67.3W   12.7N  69.5W   12.9N  71.8W
BAMM    12.3N  65.2W   12.7N  67.4W   13.0N  69.8W   13.3N  72.3W
LBAR    12.3N  65.2W   12.8N  67.8W   13.4N  70.6W   13.8N  73.8W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          55KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100924  0000   100925  0000   100926  0000   100927  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  75.7W   14.2N  80.6W   15.3N  85.3W   15.9N  87.5W
BAMD    13.0N  74.1W   13.8N  78.7W   15.5N  83.2W   17.3N  86.5W
BAMM    13.6N  74.9W   14.5N  80.1W   15.7N  85.5W   16.4N  89.0W
LBAR    14.3N  76.9W   15.5N  83.6W   14.0N  86.2W   14.8N  88.3W
SHIP        71KTS          97KTS         109KTS         115KTS
DSHP        71KTS          97KTS          69KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  65.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  62.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  60.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  170NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Vortex]

18Z GFS Ensemble H192 SW FL




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H144..very similar to nogaps nearing western Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

ugh ... and a trough right there to pick it up. :/

[Vortex]

18Z Euro Ensemble at H240



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H180 upper keys/sfl


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

At 180 hours? The operational showed 324 hours...something seems way off.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H180 upper keys/sfl


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

At 180 hours? The operational showed 324 hours...something seems way off.

Agreed Ivan, I was trying to figure that out myself...

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H144..very similar to nogaps nearing western Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

ugh ... and a trough right there to pick it up. :/

ugh...I know that does not look good for Southern FL

Though the good news is that we are still fairly far out and models can change.

[hurricaneCW]

18Z GFS Ensemble at H144..very similar to nogaps nearing western Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

ugh ... and a trough right there to pick it up. :/

ugh...I know that does not look good for Southern FL

Looks like a recurve, but not in a good way.

[Vortex]

00z BAMD now stays just north of Honduras..These little differences may be huge later on intensitywise.