ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

This is the first system this season where I don't have a "warm and fuzzy" feeling about for us in South Florida and the Eastern Gulf.
Getting into Late September/Early October and we are very wary of developments south and southwest of us which is where 95L is supposed to get his act together.
I see long nights ahead watching this one...........

I agree. My father and I in the panhandle of Florida are already checking recon almost hourly. The northwest Caribbean is pretty much a bathtub that can harbor monster storms on their way to the Gulf and a US landfall. We will see. I think we have a few days before we see a TS. LLC still seems weak and over the passed few IR loop frames, the convection has died down. It looks like it's kind of pullin a Karl right now. We all saw how fast Karl blew up once it got its act together up in the part of the Caribbean. Everyone along the Gulf coast should really keep this system on your mind. NHC giving it a 50% COD. I don't doubt if a system will form. I think it's more of a "when" question.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE
IGOR...THAT HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 125 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Vortmax1]

50% is still good.
It looks like a convective smear right now but it will continue developing slowly overnight I believe and we'll see how it looks at first visibles.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Once this system gets to say 75W the impact from SA begins to decrease and I feel the chances of this one developing into a decent storm really begin to increase quite markedly.

[hurricaneCW]

Hopefully it doesn't develop and once the disturbance makes landfall in CA that it just completely dissipates and we're all in the clear. I think there's a good chance of that happening, if a system stays inland for a while, it could get completely shredded and not develop at all, or it keeps heading west like the Ukmet states and it goes into mainland Mexico, never really having a chance to develop.

The U.S. has been very lucky and I believe there's a greater than normal chance of them continuing to get spared.

[alan1961]

Anyone else see a hint of turning in the area marked when
the loop is run.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

The U.S. has been very lucky and I believe there's a greater than normal chance of them continuing to get spared.

I have to strongly disagree with you. as to why you think there's a very good chance of the US being spared from this system.....There's no evidence that
suggests that it will completely dissipate over CA. If you look at the models,
most of them shove this right back over the open warm waters.... I think there's a very good chance that the US WON'T be spared, is probably more like it.

[cycloneye]

Alan, around there as 00z Best Track has it.

AL, 95, 2010092200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 652W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[SouthFLTropics]

If 95L indeed turns out to be Matthew and if by chance he were a major and would affect South Florida there would be some serious irony for my family. I am the proud father of two little boys. My oldest son is named after South Florida's most famous hurricane from 1992. My other sons name...You guessed it...Matthew.

When I think about the irony I start hearing the Twilight Zone music in my head! LOL

SFT

[alan1961]

Alan, around there as 00z Best Track has it.

AL, 95, 2010092200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 652W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

ok cyclone...i'll take the eyeglass off now

[emeraldislencguy]

going to key west oct 4-11
what do yall thk the weather will be like
giveme some ideas

[Florida1118]

going to key west oct 4-11
what do yall thk the weather will be like
giveme some ideas

Well at the beach, pretty good odds there will be rough surf. Thats all we could know this far out.

[gtalum]

going to key west oct 4-11
what do yall thk the weather will be like
giveme some ideas

Here, let me go get my crystal ball...

[alienstorm]

We have the first signs of banding on the western part of the developing system. We will see what tomorrow brings.

[jlauderdal]

going to key west oct 4-11
what do yall thk the weather will be like
giveme some ideas

if anyone on this board or anywhere could predict that far out they would be worth billions, its a 15-21 day forecast you are asking for, i say temps will be in the 80's with passing clouds, chance of showers...

[MHurricanes]

It'll almost certainly be a code orange soon but conditions don't look amazing just yet, workable for sure, but the real fun probably begins at 80W as is normal for these sorts of systems at this time of year...

Perhaps, I'm worried too much. I went through Charley, Francis, and Jeane. I hope our family will not see another of these hurricanes.

One is enough.

There is no excitement after the first one.

[MGC]

I dont see any evidence of cyclonic spin in the sat loop.....gonna have to wait a couple of days for this mess to get into the W Carb Sea......MGC

[SouthFLTropics]

Is recon scheduled to fly within the next few days? We gotta have more recon baby!!!



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SFT

[HURAKAN]

I dont see any evidence of cyclonic spin in the sat loop.....gonna have to wait a couple of days for this mess to get into the W Carb Sea......MGC

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

You don't see it or you don't want to see it? Speed up the loop!!