ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[USTropics]

I have no bias towards any of the models, but I'm with rock on this one. I have a really hard time seeing this stalling out off the coast of Yucatan/over Yucatan/or in the Yucatan channel for that period of time. It goes against the time evolution of the other models.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.7N 73.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2010 13.7N 73.7W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2010 14.6N 75.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2010 14.8N 79.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2010 16.1N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2010 16.8N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2010 17.5N 87.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2010 18.2N 89.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2010 18.7N 91.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2010 18.4N 92.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Vortex]

Imo, with both the Euro/Gfs both on board with significant troughing along the eastern seaboard a NNE/NE movement looks good at some point…Where that takes place will be key to any potential landfall. Also, the intensity is up in the air..A difference of just 50-100 miles could make a HUGE difference in what were dealing with…

[BigA]

Wow, UKMET runs it right through the Yucatan, probably all the way to the BOC if extrapolated. Looks like something of a leftward outlier.

[Vortex]

Digesting all the guidance, looking at the forecasted synoptics and looking for some consistency I think the euro looks best at this point.


*Also notice TCVN

[ospreygrad]

Digesting all the guidance, looking at the forecasted synoptics and looking for some consistency I think the euro looks best at this point.


*Also notice TCVN

Since the Euro jumped on board with the GFS the past several model runs, I have also leaned toward it as well Vortex.

[Blown Away]

Digesting all the guidance, looking at the forecasted synoptics and looking for some consistency I think the euro looks best at this point.


*Also notice TCVN

During 2010 when the NHC is issuing advisories they have hugged the TVCN. IMO, the TVCN will give you a general idea where the NHC thinks a system is going.

[ronjon]

The operational GFS is south and west of its ensemble mean. Seven of the 20 member GFS ensemble group take the system north up the eastern GOM into the big bend region of FL.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201095_ensmodel.html#a_topad

[Blown Away]

Once reaching the NW Caribbean some models bend back towards the NE and then turn north. It will be interesting to see how that plays out, maybe it loops or gets tugged NE a little but not enough to recurve?? This will be a fun system to track hopefully it won't be a disaster for somebody!

[ROCK]

The operational GFS is south and west of its ensemble mean. Seven of the 20 member GFS ensemble group take the system north up the eastern GOM into the big bend region of FL.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201095_ensmodel.html#a_topad

are you saying the operational is south and west because 7 out of 20 ensembles take it EGOM? thats not even 50%...

[ronjon]

The operational GFS is south and west of its ensemble mean. Seven of the 20 member GFS ensemble group take the system north up the eastern GOM into the big bend region of FL.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201095_ensmodel.html#a_topad

are you saying the operational is south and west because 7 out of 20 ensembles take it EGOM? thats not even 50%...

Naw, rock look at the white line on the plot - thats the operational run compared to the 20 members.

[ROCK]

UKMET might be on to something...though a left outlier for sure but so is the CMC.....hmmmm dont know what to make of it right now. Might have to bring more of the GOM into play after 144hr if it misses the connection.....dare I say west of NO....

[Vortex]

UKMET seems to have a left bias…It also had Igor near 20/65 with Igor on several runs …Well left of the overall guidance.

[djmikey]

UKMET might be on to something...though a left outlier for sure but so is the CMC.....hmmmm dont know what to make of it right now. Might have to bring more of the GOM into play after 144hr if it misses the connection.....dare I say west of NO....

Finally! So west of NO IS still in play. Correct?

[Blown Away]

UKMET might be on to something...though a left outlier for sure but so is the CMC.....hmmmm dont know what to make of it right now. Might have to bring more of the GOM into play after 144hr if it misses the connection.....dare I say west of NO....

I don't think daring the ROCK to say a system will go west of NO is much of a dare.

[ConvergenceZone]

UKMET might be on to something...though a left outlier for sure but so is the CMC.....hmmmm dont know what to make of it right now. Might have to bring more of the GOM into play after 144hr if it misses the connection.....dare I say west of NO....

Finally! So west of NO IS still in play. Correct?

Personally, I still think the whole gulf is in play.

[hurricaneCW]

Is it safe to say that the track won't end up like Karl and just flow through the Yucatan into mainland Mexico? Most of the models do indicate a landfall in CA but then they kind of lift it out north.

A strong cut off low and trough over the eastern U.S. would definitely draw the storm to the north. The latest gfs runs are ugly for the eastern seaboard. A ton of moisture, anywhere from 4-6 inches of rain if not more up and down the east coast. At least that would clear out the drought but we could be dealing with a Floyd like situation where we get a drought and then big time flooding.

[Portastorm]

UKMET might be on to something...though a left outlier for sure but so is the CMC.....hmmmm dont know what to make of it right now. Might have to bring more of the GOM into play after 144hr if it misses the connection.....dare I say west of NO....

ROCK, stop the shameless pandering ... you're embarrassing us WGOMers!

This is not our storm. Keep repeating that.

[USTropics]

Guessing at this point what areas in the GOM may be impacted is just that, pure speculation. The model runs have pretty much been every where with this system over the past 2-3 days. I think, at this point, I would be more attuned to seeing how quickly/if it develops and what kind of interaction it will have with Nicaragua (it's still possible it moves inland and dissipates, although not likely imo).

[ROCK]

UKMET might be on to something...though a left outlier for sure but so is the CMC.....hmmmm dont know what to make of it right now. Might have to bring more of the GOM into play after 144hr if it misses the connection.....dare I say west of NO....

ROCK, stop the shameless pandering ... you're embarrassing us WGOMers!

This is not our storm. Keep repeating that.

nah, like getting a RISE out of the board.....