ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

12Z nogaps aligns well with ECM...looks reasonable to me...

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]12z Nogaps has it moving due north through the Yucatan channel

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... t.gifquote]

N or NW? looks NW to me....

[Vortex]

The strength of that trough will be HUGE...Biloxi MS-Key West...IMO this is the target zone....using a compromise of the ECM/GFS

[ospreygrad]

12z Nogaps has it moving due north through the Yucatan channel

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... t.gifquote]

N or NW? looks NW to me....

Poleward.

[ROCK]

12z Nogaps has it moving due north through the Yucatan channel

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... t.gifquote]

N or NW? looks NW to me....

Poleward.

Poleward? so it could be either N or NW then....thanks...

[ROCK]

The strength of that trough will be HUGE...Biloxi MS-Key West...IMO this is the target zone....using a compromise of the ECM/GFS

its the cut off low that will be huge.....and where it sets up shop...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC goes thru NE Nicaragua and then makes landfall in Belize.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

The strength of that trough will be HUGE...Biloxi MS-Key West...IMO this is the target zone....using a compromise of the ECM/GFS

There appears to be two really uncertain areas with regards to this storm that will be vital. The first is how far inland if at all it plows itself before it gets back into water and the second is indeed how strong the trough gets.

Those two could be the difference between a TS hitting say Cuba and Bahamas and a cat 4-5 off the Yucatan heading towards Florida and maybe places further west...and of course there are many other outcomes inbetween those examples as well!

[ospreygrad]

The strength of that trough will be HUGE...Biloxi MS-Key West...IMO this is the target zone....using a compromise of the ECM/GFS

According to that NOGAPS run, the trough looks strong enough to pull the cyclone more on a N/N-NE heading right toward the NE Gulfof Mexico/Big Bend of FL.

But, I am sure more changes will come in future model runs. But, the trend in the long range is definitely pointing to the NE GOM - FL peninsula for now.

[ronjon]

Here's the big difference at 500 mb between the ECM and GFS. The GFS goes gonzo with a 564 dm cut-off low over Memphis at 156 hrs. While the Euro has an intense mid-level low much further north and east near western MD. The GFS also lingers the cut-off over the SE for 2-3 days while the Euro lifts out the trough toward the NE.

[KWT]

12z CMC goes thru NE Nicaragua and then makes landfall in Belize.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yep, would probably head NE from that point onwards as a large probably fairly slack system towards the SE states, how strong though is uncertain of course!

The 12z CMC though shows just how tight its going to be, the difference between it being just inland and decaying to a remnant low, and the system staying far enough offshore as it nearly stalls and becoming a major hurricane is very tight indeed.

[Vortex]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 12Z ECM targets between the FL panhandle and the Big bend region…The 00z run of the ECM had identical positions over the NW Caribbean the last 2 runs of the 00Z…solutions differed beyond the NW carribean.

[jlauderdal]

GFDL and HWRF comming in half an hour.Lets see what those two models have in their first runs for 95L.

they run off the gfs as you know, would discount anything they put out based on what we are seeing off the gfs right now

[Ivanhater]

We are not dealing with a deep trough digging through the Southeast. It will be a cut off low and from what I understand are hard to forecast movement. So I'm not sure if a cut off low can turn a tropical system NE or just induce a weakness in the Gulf for it to head north.

[otowntiger]

GFS really struggling with the synoptics - very strange run.

How do we know it's struggling? I mean isn't it possible that it's seeing some things in the current and/ or forecast synoptics that will cause it to be very weak and/or move in such a way as not to be a serious threat? It is not at all out of the ordinary for a tropical disturbance to not become a monster wreaking havoc, instead just bringing someone some gentle breezes accompanied by some sporadic rain.

[ROCK]

We are not dealing with a deep trough digging through the Southeast. It will be a cut off low and from what I understand are hard to forecast movement. So I'm not sure if a cut off low can turn a tropical system NE or just induce a weakness in the Gulf for it to head north.

agree....CMC stalls this over the Yucatan....you can see the cut off low in the NE.....is that enough to pull it NE.....I dont know....fun times....still not certain on any model run....

[ronjon]

GFS really struggling with the synoptics - very strange run.

How do we know it's struggling? I mean isn't it possible that it's seeing some things in the current and/ or forecast synoptics that will cause it to be very weak and/or move in such a way as not to be a serious threat? It is not at all out of the ordinary for a tropical disturbance to not intensify and wreak havoc, instead just bringing someone some gentle breezes accompanied by some sporadic rain.

When I make this comment I'm discussing the upper level environment not the strength of the tropical cyclone. What makes the GFS seem so strange is the position and strength of the cutoff low (must be a 2-3 standard deviation anomaly) compared to the other guidance (see my discussion above). I also find it somewhat spurious that the GFS devlops a second "tropical cyclone" to the east of 95L. I suppose it could come true but looks overdone to me.

[ospreygrad]

[Poleward.[/quote]

Poleward? so it could be either N or NW then....thanks... [/quote]

More due north, according to that particular model run to be more specific. Just wanted to clarify.

[Ivanhater]

[Poleward.

Poleward? so it could be either N or NW then....thanks... [/quote]

More due north, according to that particular model run to be more specific. Just wanted to clarify.[/quote]

Just took a look and it is moving NNW with the cut off low backing off to the NW which would imply a hit on north Gulf coast..just one run so nothing to over analyze really...

HWRF sends this NW about to go through the Yucatan channel....nothing very strong but that will likely change in future runs

[KWT]

Yeah Ronjon I find the 2nd TC a bit of a strange one, then again the GFS is good at spotting those features before the models and it has happened before...Wilma and Alpha is a good example!

THe HWRF looks too far north IMO, I'd expect it to be a decent way south of that postion at 120hrs or so....