KWT wrote:GFS run once again looks at odds with quite a few of the other models out there to be honest, I suspect the problem is the GFS buries it into CA and that causes the system to have to start all over again effectivly in the NW Caribbean by which time the combo of the upper shear and the 2nd system messes things up for this storm.
I think though the 2nd system the GFS is trying to produce is highly unlikely to develop, esp if 95L can gain just enough latitude to avoid heading inland...
The truth is though the models are not to be trusted at all with how this evolves for a long while yet...alot of factors will be at play, far more then the likes of say Danielle/Igor...
I agree.....actually based on Vorticity trends currently the area at 66 degrees west is looking nice...it has such an incredible environment ahead of it at about 68 I would say. Some shear is definitely causing some disruption but imo this area is coming together...I believe the NHC will reflect that and vorticity should increase in that area.
I wonder if this becomes Matthew, gets more powerful than the GFS sees and doesn't impact CA, what are track implications? I mean...it's not necessarily like the GFS is that far out because if it takes forever to get itself together it would bring it very close to October and in late September we can definitely see huge troughs with the La Nina pattern.
The game starts with how far north the LLC forms.
