ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneman]

hats off to the GFS? the NAM should be getting credit.....I have been watching the GFS for weeks now....never did it suggest formation until further down the road....and that wasnt until just recently...

lets keep it in perspective....

Thats not true, the GFS did develop this orginally further east, then it backed off and has since a few days ago started to develop it stronger again in central Caribbean...

Also lets first see this develop before we give any models credit, could well take till the W.Caribbean because its pretty rare to get development east of 70W at this time of year...

we agree to disagree then.... I dont feel like pulling archived GFS runs....I have been watching every run of the "koolaide drinking GFS" for weeks now....

I believe they have outperformed the Euro this years. Don't have the stats to back it up, just going on memory which isn't always a good thing Does anyone having any model verification for this year thus far?

[caneseddy]

If the GFS is to be believed, it wil lgo NE over Cuba out into the Bahamas
Canadian has it brushing southern tip of Florida
Euro has a monster storm paralleling the west coast of Fl

In other words, too soon to tell; first we have to worry about CA and what effect, or any, they may receive

[Vortex]

H+84..weakness developing to the NW....




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[caneseddy]

H+84..weakness developing to the NW....




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Almost same position where Mitch was in 1998

[Vortex]

sure is...BUT no strong ridging to the NE to bury it over CA for a few days...

[Aquawind]

And then heading over the highest THP in the basin.. ugh

[boca]

If the Nam is to be believed 95L would be cutting across the Yucatan say it went to 96hrs when you loop it.

[ospreygrad]

so what think that 95l will affect southern part fl or do it look like north fl and north gulf issue?? what models show

Too early to speculate about precisely which areas 95L will impact. By this weekend, we should have some better indications of who will be greatly impacted by this developing cyclone, other than the obvious potential effects down in areas of the Caribbean. It will all depend on the timing of the developing trough across the Central and Eastern CONUS and the location and intensity of 95L once it reaches the NW Caribbean Sea by early next week.

Just pay close attention to the trends in the model runs and look for consistency. All interests in the Central, Western and Northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week should remain vigilant. And going into next week, people in my view from the Northeast Gulf Coast, the entire Florida peninsula and even the SE Atlantic Coast will need to prepare to be on alert.

[cycloneye]

12z NAM has a powerful hurricane north of Honduras.

Loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

Powerful hurricane and NAM should never be used in the same sentence...LOL

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS about to roll

[BigB0882]

What worries me most is that all season long we have seen the trend for tracks to slowly but surely progress West. That tells me that models have been overdoing troughs all year long. I think that could very well happen again but hopefully they will nail this one down perfectly and everyone in the cone will have ample warning. I say watch this close no matter where you are along the coast, things change quickly! If this does hit FL then the models latched on early and made a great call but only time will tell.

[Aquawind]

Don't put your bets down yet.. we need a LLC! Well you can count and shuffle your chips because I doubt the casino is closing..and gambing addiction is rampant..

[Dean4Storms]

Man, we don't need this here in the Panhandle. My concern level just stepped up to Code Pink after seeing that ECM run!!

[caneseddy]

12Z Gfs up to 66 hours has our system moving west towards Central America

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal066.gif

[HurrMark]

12Z Gfs up to 66 hours has our system moving west towards Central America

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal066.gif

Looks like it just plows right into CA and dissipates...

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z Gfs up to 66 hours has our system moving west towards Central America

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal066.gif

So GFS has backed off of the GOM hit?
sorry my system can't pull up the link right now...

[SFLcane]

12Z Gfs up to 66 hours has our system moving west towards Central America

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal066.gif

Looks like it just plows right into CA and dissipates...

Nope still there at 114hrs....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_114m.gif

[caneseddy]

12 GFS up to 132 hours

at 90 has the system right off coast of Nicaragua
at 96 hours...has it just inland in Nicaragua
at 102 hours has it well inside CA around the Honduras and Nicaragua border
at 108 hours, it emerges off of the north coast of Honduras
at 114 hours...moving slowly west in the Gulf of Honduras
at 120 hours, moving north parallel to Belize
at 126 hours, moves back east closer to Honduras
at 132, just drifting in the Gulf of Honduras

[jlauderdal]

12Z Gfs up to 66 hours has our system moving west towards Central America

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal066.gif

Looks like it just plows right into CA and dissipates...

well it also has three lows right on top of each other, maybe it doesnt have a good handle on this run, just sayin