WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1012 MALAKAS (1012)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 18.0N 144.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 18.6N 142.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 231200UTC 20.4N 140.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241200UTC 24.6N 140.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.1N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 43.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 144.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210654Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY
TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, TS 13W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION
INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY THOUGH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z
AND 220900Z.//
NNNN
Dvoraks:
489
TCNA21 RJTD 211200
CCAA 21120 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15179 11444 14244 230// 92905=
TPPN11 PGTW 211215
A. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 21/1132Z
C. 19.0N
D. 144.7E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON
LOG-10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT PT AND MET
AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE
TXPN28 KNES 210917
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 21/0832Z
C. 17.9N
D. 144.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING. MET IS 2.0 WITH PT OF 2.5.
FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=