ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneman]

Hats off to the GFS this year that some like to rail against. None the less. It's concerning that both the GFS and Euro are showing Eastern Gulf/ Florida action. Still a long way off though so things can and probably will change. At least, we can hope.

[Ikester]

If it lifts north, then I think the eastern gulf has every reason to be concerned. With our (Houston) first cold front scheduled for this weekend, it is unlikely that any storm would make it to the western gulf.

[ColinDelia]

Ocean temps right around 86 Fahrenheit (30 C) the whole of the next 120 hours according to SHIPS output.
That gives a potential intensity around 170 knots which is the main reason SHIPS and LGEM go nuts. They did a not too dissimilar thing with ex-Gaston though with LGEM going from 30 knots to 110 knots in 120 hours.

The SHIPS/LGEM forecasts are a lot more reliable when we have a TC since the database used in construction of the coefficients didn't include storms which didn't become TCs.

If SHIPS verifies with an increase to 34 knots within 24 hours then this is more realistic. The NHC though only has 20% for even TC formation the next 48 hours. So I would think it is overdone. With the usual caveats (The Caribbean waters are warmer than the temps most of us take a warm bath in).

[btangy]

Be careful with the SHIPS output. It's really only valid for systems that start with a circulation at tropical depression strength since that's the data that it's trained on. For disturbances like this, there's obviously going to be a delay in the intensification while it organizes.

[Aquawind]

Well said Blob Patrol.. SHIPS does have the elements to overdue the intensity as it often does..still 120kts on the first run is whacked..

[KWT]

GFS evolution of this pattern looks very heavily dependant on another storm developing to the east of it and the system swinging itself round...if that doesn't happen then the GFS tracks don't happen either...

Personally I think the GFS in the last few runs has somewhat lost the plot with 95L but we will see...IF it looks like another system forms right next to it then who knows what is possible!

[ROCK]

Hats off to the GFS this year that some like to rail against. None the less. It's concerning that both the GFS and Euro are showing Eastern Gulf/ Florida action. Still a long way off though so things can and probably will change. At least, we can hope.

hats off to the GFS? the NAM should be getting credit.....I have been watching the GFS for weeks now....never did it suggest formation until further down the road....and that wasnt until just recently...

lets keep it in perspective....

[ROCK]

If it lifts north, then I think the eastern gulf has every reason to be concerned. With our (Houston) first cold front scheduled for this weekend, it is unlikely that any storm would make it to the western gulf.

cold front? you mean cool front. Highs still progged to be in the 90's....the CMC was showing central LA at 240hr....that is over 8 days from now....

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't pay much attention at all to the BAMS early model forecasts. Sure it has it hitting central america, but I remember on the last couple of canes that develdoped that the BAMs also pointed to the storms moving more South...So the BAM means nothing to me at this point.....I think they are way too far south....

[KWT]

hats off to the GFS? the NAM should be getting credit.....I have been watching the GFS for weeks now....never did it suggest formation until further down the road....and that wasnt until just recently...

lets keep it in perspective....

Thats not true, the GFS did develop this orginally further east, then it backed off and has since a few days ago started to develop it stronger again in central Caribbean...

Also lets first see this develop before we give any models credit, could well take till the W.Caribbean because its pretty rare to get development east of 70W at this time of year...

[jlauderdal]

Hats off to the GFS this year that some like to rail against. None the less. It's concerning that both the GFS and Euro are showing Eastern Gulf/ Florida action. Still a long way off though so things can and probably will change. At least, we can hope.

hats off to the GFS? the NAM should be getting credit.....I have been watching the GFS for weeks now....never did it suggest formation until further down the road....and that wasnt until just recently...

lets keep it in perspective....

vortex seconds the kudos to nam, vortex is a fort lauderdale NAM hugger

[KWT]

Be careful with the SHIPS output. It's really only valid for systems that start with a circulation at tropical depression strength since that's the data that it's trained on. For disturbances like this, there's obviously going to be a delay in the intensification while it organizes.

Yeah thats a very good point, still I do think its a useful tool to get a grasp of just how favourable conditions may end up becoming in the W.Caribbean...

[Vortex]

12Z NAM at 54


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Vortex]

H60

Very bullish



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Vortex]

H66 looks similar to the euro so far.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[hurricaneCW]

There's going to be too much of a ridge displacement and weakness building from the allowing this disturbance to keep going due west. Plus the globals all indicate that the storm will eventually move away from CA and head northward into the gulf.

[ROCK]

hats off to the GFS? the NAM should be getting credit.....I have been watching the GFS for weeks now....never did it suggest formation until further down the road....and that wasnt until just recently...

lets keep it in perspective....

Thats not true, the GFS did develop this orginally further east, then it backed off and has since a few days ago started to develop it stronger again in central Caribbean...

Also lets first see this develop before we give any models credit, could well take till the W.Caribbean because its pretty rare to get development east of 70W at this time of year...

we agree to disagree then.... I dont feel like pulling archived GFS runs....I have been watching every run of the "koolaide drinking GFS" for weeks now....

[Vortex]

H72 just NE of honduran coast..very similar to ECM last night


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[caneman]

Hats off to the GFS this year that some like to rail against. None the less. It's concerning that both the GFS and Euro are showing Eastern Gulf/ Florida action. Still a long way off though so things can and probably will change. At least, we can hope.

hats off to the GFS? the NAM should be getting credit.....I have been watching the GFS for weeks now....never did it suggest formation until further down the road....and that wasnt until just recently...

lets keep it in perspective....

Yes, NAM has also done well with formation.

[floridasun78]

so what think that 95l will affect southern part fl or do it look like north fl and north gulf issue?? what models show