EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Depression
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 201000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 107.4W TO 22.2N 109.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211000Z.
//
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- HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
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- HURAKAN
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862
ABPZ20 KNHC 201142
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 20 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD COOLER WATERS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABPZ20 KNHC 201142
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 20 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD COOLER WATERS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Its not looking too bad right now to be honest, decent convection is present with this system. If it does develop there isn't going to be much from this system...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- HURAKAN
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Code: Select all
430
WHXX01 KMIA 201309
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1309 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100920 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100920 1200 100921 0000 100921 1200 100922 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 108.3W 20.5N 109.1W 21.0N 109.9W 21.5N 110.7W
BAMD 19.6N 108.3W 20.8N 110.1W 21.6N 111.8W 22.4N 113.3W
BAMM 19.6N 108.3W 21.0N 109.5W 22.0N 110.8W 23.0N 111.9W
LBAR 19.6N 108.3W 20.7N 109.5W 22.0N 110.7W 23.3N 112.0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 29KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100922 1200 100923 1200 100924 1200 100925 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 111.4W 23.9N 113.1W 26.0N 115.6W 27.7N 118.5W
BAMD 23.2N 114.5W 25.2N 115.5W 27.3N 117.1W 28.9N 118.9W
BAMM 24.1N 112.7W 27.0N 112.5W 29.3N 112.5W 29.8N 113.3W
LBAR 24.8N 113.0W 29.2N 112.3W 34.7N 107.4W 39.5N 101.9W
SHIP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 107.2W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 106.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Models aren't really all that keen, which isn't all that surprising given where it is...may get a quick fire TD/TS out of this but anything that does get going is short lived.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Kingarabian
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- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 20 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD COOLER
WATERS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Code: Select all
662
WHXX01 KMIA 201902
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC MON SEP 20 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962010) 20100920 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100920 1800 100921 0600 100921 1800 100922 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 108.6W 20.9N 109.1W 21.6N 109.8W 22.3N 110.3W
BAMD 20.1N 108.6W 21.2N 110.0W 22.1N 111.4W 23.1N 112.6W
BAMM 20.1N 108.6W 21.3N 109.4W 22.5N 110.3W 23.6N 111.1W
LBAR 20.1N 108.6W 21.2N 109.3W 22.5N 110.4W 23.9N 111.5W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 34KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100922 1800 100923 1800 100924 1800 100925 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 110.9W 25.6N 111.8W 27.7N 113.8W 29.1N 116.7W
BAMD 24.3N 113.2W 26.6N 113.0W 28.4N 114.0W 29.1N 115.7W
BAMM 25.2N 111.4W 28.3N 110.1W 30.1N 110.8W 31.2N 112.6W
LBAR 25.6N 112.3W 30.7N 111.0W 36.4N 106.7W 39.3N 104.3W
SHIP 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 27KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 107.9W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 106.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Last edited by HURAKAN on Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
EP, 96, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1086W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
up to 35 knots but still says invest
up to 35 knots but still says invest
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- HURAKAN
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Re:
pepeavilenho wrote:Guys! Do we have any news from the Best Trak, Dvorak, or ATCF?
I'm really interested in this system, also is close to Baja California
Remains just a disturbance and continues exposed, so development in the short term is unlikely.
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