ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[abajan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The outlook for Bermuda is considerably better than it has been for the last several days. Although Igor is still a big system, its winds have decreased significantly. Also, the island is yet to experience sustained tropical storm force winds but I expect that will happen later this morning:

[WeatherGuesser]

Just thinking out loud ..... a larger system moving at an increasing forward speed could mean less concentrated winds at any one point for very long. Still could be trouble for sure, but maybe less than a more compact system moving slower that would tend to scrub any one place more intensely.

[KWT]

Agreed with 75 kt - that has to be a record low for a storm with a pressure of 948mb.

Thats a stunningly low pressure for a system of that strength but I suppose that shows just how large Igor has become really...

[TampaFl]

Here is a Davis VP2 Plus weather station @ Smiths Parish, Bermuda. The site updates every 5-6 minutes. Notice how low the pressure is already & wind speeds already gusting to 45mph-50mph.


http://www.weatherlink.com/user/tomcoelho/index.php?view=summary&headers=1/


http://www.weatherlink.com/map.php?station=tomcoelho

[senorpepr]

The forecast (TAF) from Bermuda:


TAF TXKF 191152Z 1912/2012 09030G45KT 8000 -RA BKN014 OVC090
PROB40 TEMPO 1912/1915 09040G55KT 0800 +TSRA BKN008CB
PROB30 TEMPO 1912/1918 +FC BKN004CB
BECMG 1912/1915 09040G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1915/1918 09050G65KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1915/1918 09050G65KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1918/2010 VRB75G95KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1918/1920 12060G75KT
BECMG 2000/2003 VRB30KT
PROB30 TEMPO 2000/2004 VRB05KT
BECMG 2003/2005 25060G75KT
BECMG 2008/2010 29050G65KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2008/2010 29060G75KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 2010/2012 30040G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2010/2012 29050G65KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB=


BTW, PROB30 TMEPO 1912/1918 +FC BKN004CB translates to a 30% probability temporary condition between 12-18Z of a tornado (+FC). I think that's the first time I've seen a tornado forecast in a TAF...

[artist]

The forecast (TAF) from Bermuda:


TAF TXKF 191152Z 1912/2012 09030G45KT 8000 -RA BKN014 OVC090
PROB40 TEMPO 1912/1915 09040G55KT 0800 +TSRA BKN008CB
PROB30 TEMPO 1912/1918 +FC BKN004CB
BECMG 1912/1915 09040G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1915/1918 09050G65KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1915/1918 09050G65KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1918/2010 VRB75G95KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 1918/1920 12060G75KT
BECMG 2000/2003 VRB30KT
PROB30 TEMPO 2000/2004 VRB05KT
BECMG 2003/2005 25060G75KT
BECMG 2008/2010 29050G65KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2008/2010 29060G75KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB
BECMG 2010/2012 30040G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2010/2012 29050G65KT 0400 +TSRA BKN004CB=


BTW, PROB30 TMEPO 1912/1918 +FC BKN004CB translates to a 30% probability temporary condition between 12-18Z of a tornado (+FC). I think that's the first time I've seen a tornado forecast in a TAF...

yeah, the weather service there was saying they were seeing tornadic activity on radar.

[artist]

As you know Marc Guishard of the Bermuda Weather Service reported sightings of tonadic activity on their radar. This activity is believed to occur in the next 30 to 45 minutes in the Eastern parishes. Mr Guishard has indicated that the Causeway should be temporarily closed Sunday September 19, 2010 9:24 tim

[cycloneye]

The eye is now in view at the radar.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[HenkL]

Floating buoy 44903 (ARGOS 70822) measured 951 mb at 12Z, location 29°43'N 65°31'W.

[abajan]

Since 9 AM AST Bermuda has been recording sustained TS force winds. The question now is how long will sustained winds at or above this speed last: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TXKF.html

[lostinthetriangle]

Some good gusts now, and lots of rain beating on the windows! I live in the east end gusting to 60, the west end weather station reporting near 70 knots

[artist]

Some good gusts now, and lots of rain beating on the windows! I live in the east end gusting to 60, the west end weather station reporting near 70 knots

thanks for your update lost! Stay safe.

[TampaFl]

Here is a Davis VP2 Plus weather station @ Smiths Parish, Bermuda. The site updates every 5-6 minutes. Wind gusting to 64mph.
Map of station location is second link.


http://www.weatherlink.com/user/tomcoel ... headers=1/


http://www.weatherlink.com/map.php?station=tomcoelho

[JahJa]

lostinthetriangle and jahja -
how long have you all lived in Bermuda?
Were either of you there for Fabian?

I've lived here permanently just over a year now but I was between here and the UK all the time. I wasnt here for fabian but i saw the pictures of the devastation it caused and if you speak to locals now that is the storm that everyone always talks about.

I lost power earlier this morning luckily its back on now, but the question is for how long! It hasnt stopped raining since early this morning. I have a waterview where I live and the visability is near 0.

[artist]

lostinthetriangle and jahja -
how long have you all lived in Bermuda?
Were either of you there for Fabian?

I've lived here permanently just over a year now but I was between here and the UK all the time. I wasnt here for fabian but i saw the pictures of the devastation it caused and if you speak to locals now that is the storm that everyone always talks about.

I lost power earlier this morning luckily its back on now, but the question is for how long! It hasnt stopped raining since early this morning. I have a waterview where I live and the visability is near 0.

thanks for your update Jahja! From what I have been reading lot's have been experiencing temporary loss of power. I am so glad they have been able to get it back up for the most part, as they can.
Stay safe and know you all are in our thoughts and prayers.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I lost power earlier this morning luckily its back on now, but the question is for how long! It hasnt stopped raining since early this morning. I have a waterview where I live and the visability is near 0.

A waterview in Bermuda? Noway!!!LOL

GL

[Terry]

HERE is a live blog from Bermuda. He is updating about every 30 min. There are also photos.

[mettski]

Live Streaming Cam http://bernews.com/2010/09/watch-live-hurricane-igor-webcast/

[Terry]

Live stream via HurricaneTrack.com

[Stephanie]

I've lived here permanently just over a year now but I was between here and the UK all the time. I wasnt here for fabian but i saw the pictures of the devastation it caused and if you speak to locals now that is the storm that everyone always talks about.

I lost power earlier this morning luckily its back on now, but the question is for how long! It hasnt stopped raining since early this morning. I have a waterview where I live and the visability is near 0.

I'm glad that Igor is now a Cat 1 for Bermuda. I wish you and all of the islanders well.

Can you tell me if the Sonesta Beach Resort is still in Bermuda or was it closed due to Fabian? It was located on the southwestern part of the island. It was a beautiful resort. I stayed there in 1999 and after Fabian, I looked up it's website and it said that it was closed due to the damage sustained in that storm. I don't believe that it's there anymore and perhaps something else took it's place. It was right next to the Fairmont Southampton. I'm just curious.

Please continue to checkin with us here at storm2k to let us know how you are doing as power permits.