WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WPAC: MALAKAS (1012/13W) - Ex Typhoon
INVEST 90W is now up on NRL; ITOP (which is co-ordinating USAF recon in the WPAC this time) has this down as area number 22.
Doesn't look like much right now.
ITOP summary on this system:
ITOP22 has been a weak feature but has remained identifiable as
a vorticity cluster on models. This cluster is forecast to track
NW for the next 8 days before heading north to northeast in Days
8-10and looks to become more organized into a significant system
east of Guam by Day 5.
Doesn't look like much right now.
ITOP summary on this system:
ITOP22 has been a weak feature but has remained identifiable as
a vorticity cluster on models. This cluster is forecast to track
NW for the next 8 days before heading north to northeast in Days
8-10and looks to become more organized into a significant system
east of Guam by Day 5.
Last edited by Chacor on Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:56 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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ITOP discussion from 17/2300Z:
ITOP22 has been a weak feature but has remained identifiable as
a vorticity cluster on models. The cluster continues to track to
the NW on the ECMWF model and may become more organized into a
significant system east of Guam in 4 or 5 days. The disturbance
will continue to be tracked.
ITOP22 has been a weak feature but has remained identifiable as
a vorticity cluster on models. The cluster continues to track to
the NW on the ECMWF model and may become more organized into a
significant system east of Guam in 4 or 5 days. The disturbance
will continue to be tracked.
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Updated Significant Tropical Weather Advisory increases development chance to fair:
ABPW10 PGTW 181830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181830Z-190600ZSEP2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZSEP2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 181200Z, TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N
124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N 152.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181129Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED LLCC, YET FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS FAIR.//
ABPW10 PGTW 181830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181830Z-190600ZSEP2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZSEP2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 181200Z, TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N
124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N 152.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181129Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED LLCC, YET FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS FAIR.//
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (ITOP 022)
I wonder if this is the one ECMW has predicted to go up past mainland Japan?
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TCFA has been issued by JTWC.
WTPN22 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.6E TO 15.8N 145.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 182332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 151.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED INFLOW
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 182024Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS
STILL DISORGANIZED. ALSO, A 190004Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WEAK LLCC
WITH HIGHER GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.//
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 190308
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (EAST OF GUAM)
B. 19/0232Z
C. 14.1N
D. 151.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
GATES
WTPN22 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.6E TO 15.8N 145.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 182332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 151.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED INFLOW
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 182024Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS
STILL DISORGANIZED. ALSO, A 190004Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WEAK LLCC
WITH HIGHER GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.//
NNNN
TPPN11 PGTW 190308
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (EAST OF GUAM)
B. 19/0232Z
C. 14.1N
D. 151.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
GATES
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- Location: Tokyo, Japan
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This is the one the models have been picking up on for a week now, so no surprise really. Also good news is it looks to move off to the N the NE along with the trough aloft over honshu currently.
Although.... the sub-tropical ridge could build in again as saw with 12W and hold it to the S and towards Saipan. I got a new video coming out in a few min. (uploading yawn) talking about it.....
But JTWC has not canexed one system yet this season, there kind of on a role so defiantly watching this.
Although.... the sub-tropical ridge could build in again as saw with 12W and hold it to the S and towards Saipan. I got a new video coming out in a few min. (uploading yawn) talking about it.....
But JTWC has not canexed one system yet this season, there kind of on a role so defiantly watching this.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (ITOP 022)
at 13.6 150.8.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (ITOP 022)
14.4N 149.9E. probably be heading northward later on then drift NE.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 190757
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
557 PM CHST SUN SEP 19 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST OF GUAM. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
IS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N FROM 150E TO 160E. ELSEWHERE A TRADE- WIND
TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST AND NORTH OF YAP.
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100
MILES OF A LINE FROM 1.5N 137E TO 10N 157E.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS IS
DEFINITELY THE 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE FORECAST ROOM TONIGHT. IT
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. SINCE IT IS JUST BEGINNING TO PULL
ITSELF TOGETHER...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...WITH RAIN BEING
THE BIG STORY. THE NEXT FEW HOURS DO NOT LOOK SO BAD...SO WENT
WITH SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE CONVECTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AT THE MOMENT
BUT WILL ATTRIBUTE THAT TO CYCLING...A COMMON PHENOMENON WITH
NASCENT TROPICAL CYCLONES. EXPECT IT TO PICK UP AGAIN IN A FEW
HOURS. THIS ALSO AGREES WELL WITH THE GENERAL DIURNAL CYCLE SO
FOR ALL THOSE REASONS AFTER MIDNIGHT SEEMED TO BE THE BEST BET.
JUST COULD NOT FIND ANY WIND GRIDS THAT DEFINITELY SEEMED BETTER
THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS SO DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS AT ALL. IN
FACT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SEEMS GOOD BASED ON THE ASCAT OF 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE LATITUDES OF THE MARIANAS WATERS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY DOWN BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN THIS YEAR...VIRTUALLY ALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC AREAS BETWEEN THE CELLS OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
000
WWMY80 PGUM 191845
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
445 AM CHST MON SEP 20 2010
GUZ001>004-200800-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
445 AM CHST MON SEP 20 2010
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS REMAINS
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. AT 4 AM THE CENTER WAS ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE TO BE NEAR 17N AND 148E...ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GUAM AND 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANA
ISLANDS...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
SINCE THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN ITS BEGINNING STAGE...STRONG WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS OF FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS SUCH
AS PAGAN AND AGRIHAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Still pretty disorganized on IR:
Dvorak's 1.5 from PGTW (JTWC) and 1.0 from KNES.
TPPN11 PGTW 191809
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (EAST OF GUAM)
B. 19/1732Z
C. 16.8N
D. 148.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .30 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1237Z 16.5N 148.5E TRMM
GATES
TXPN28 KNES 191517
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 19/1432Z
C. 15.1N
D. 150.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...NO CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION (IF THERE IS EVEN A LLC).
CONVECTION IS DECENT BUT NOT MUCH BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
AREA...DISTANT BAND TO THE EAST IS .2 BUT DT IS 0.0 FOR NO CURVATURE OF
MAIN CLUSTER. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 0. FT BASED ON MET. SWIR AND MI DO NOT
HINT AT CIRCULATION BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT...AND WILL NOT WEAKEN SYSTEM
IN FIRST 24HRS OVERNIGHT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=
Not convincing on ASCAT:
FXPQ60 PGUM 190757
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
557 PM CHST SUN SEP 19 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST OF GUAM. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
IS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N FROM 150E TO 160E. ELSEWHERE A TRADE- WIND
TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST AND NORTH OF YAP.
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100
MILES OF A LINE FROM 1.5N 137E TO 10N 157E.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS IS
DEFINITELY THE 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE FORECAST ROOM TONIGHT. IT
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. SINCE IT IS JUST BEGINNING TO PULL
ITSELF TOGETHER...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...WITH RAIN BEING
THE BIG STORY. THE NEXT FEW HOURS DO NOT LOOK SO BAD...SO WENT
WITH SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE CONVECTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AT THE MOMENT
BUT WILL ATTRIBUTE THAT TO CYCLING...A COMMON PHENOMENON WITH
NASCENT TROPICAL CYCLONES. EXPECT IT TO PICK UP AGAIN IN A FEW
HOURS. THIS ALSO AGREES WELL WITH THE GENERAL DIURNAL CYCLE SO
FOR ALL THOSE REASONS AFTER MIDNIGHT SEEMED TO BE THE BEST BET.
JUST COULD NOT FIND ANY WIND GRIDS THAT DEFINITELY SEEMED BETTER
THAN THE CURRENT GRIDS SO DID NOT CHANGE THE WINDS AT ALL. IN
FACT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE SEEMS GOOD BASED ON THE ASCAT OF 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE LATITUDES OF THE MARIANAS WATERS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY DOWN BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN THIS YEAR...VIRTUALLY ALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC AREAS BETWEEN THE CELLS OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
000
WWMY80 PGUM 191845
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
445 AM CHST MON SEP 20 2010
GUZ001>004-200800-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
445 AM CHST MON SEP 20 2010
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS REMAINS
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. AT 4 AM THE CENTER WAS ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE TO BE NEAR 17N AND 148E...ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GUAM AND 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANA
ISLANDS...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
SINCE THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN ITS BEGINNING STAGE...STRONG WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS OF FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS SUCH
AS PAGAN AND AGRIHAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Still pretty disorganized on IR:
Dvorak's 1.5 from PGTW (JTWC) and 1.0 from KNES.
TPPN11 PGTW 191809
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (EAST OF GUAM)
B. 19/1732Z
C. 16.8N
D. 148.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .30 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1237Z 16.5N 148.5E TRMM
GATES
TXPN28 KNES 191517
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 19/1432Z
C. 15.1N
D. 150.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...NO CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION (IF THERE IS EVEN A LLC).
CONVECTION IS DECENT BUT NOT MUCH BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
AREA...DISTANT BAND TO THE EAST IS .2 BUT DT IS 0.0 FOR NO CURVATURE OF
MAIN CLUSTER. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 0. FT BASED ON MET. SWIR AND MI DO NOT
HINT AT CIRCULATION BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT...AND WILL NOT WEAKEN SYSTEM
IN FIRST 24HRS OVERNIGHT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=
Not convincing on ASCAT:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (ITOP 022)
This one should be heading more northwards then NE. It's cool for me that these model runs know when a system will form and what direction it will take.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ITOP still likes this system. From the latest ITOP weather summary:
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:
Forecast for ITOP 22: Based on low level vorticiity fields for
24-36 hours. Low evel circulation evident on models afetr that.
JTWC issued Formation Alert at 19/0230Z
TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: ITOP022 Name: ITOP022
Issued at: 2228 UTC 19/09/2010
Data at: 1600 UTC 19 September 2010
TECHNICAL REMARKS
** Working track only - for information **
2 x ECMWF and1 x UK Track of vorticity only first 24-36 hours.
Circulation evident in low level wind fields after that time.
Latitude: 15.6N
Longitude: 148.8E
Location Accuracy: within 100 nm (185 km)
Movement Towards: west (261 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h)
Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 265 nm (490 km) east northeast
At +12: 245 nm (450 km) north northeast
At +24: 280 nm (520 km) north
At +36: 300 nm (560 km) north
At +48: 310 nm (580 km) north northwest
At +60: 340 nm (630 km) north northwest
At +72: 380 nm (710 km) north northwest
FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 19/1600 : 15.6N 148.8E : 100 : 020 : : 1010 :
+6 : 19/2200 : 16.5N 147.5E : 115 : 020 : 040 : 1008 :
+12 : 20/0400 : 17.2N 146.5E : 130 : 020 : 040 : 1005 :
+18 : 20/1000 : 17.8N 145.7E : 145 : 025 : 045 : 1003 :
+24 : 20/1600 : 18.1N 145.2E : 160 : 030 : 045 : 1000 :
+36 : 21/0400 : 18.5N 144.5E : 190 : 035 : 050 : 995 :
+48 : 21/1600 : 18.6N 143.5E : 220 : 040 : 055 : 985 :
+60 : 22/0400 : 18.7N 142.5E : 270 : 055 : 080 : 980 :
+72 : 22/1600 : 19.1N 141.8E : 320 : 070 : 100 : 970 :
+84 : 23/0400 : 20.2N 140.9E : 320 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+96 : 23/1600 : 21.4N 140.5E : 320 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+108 : 24/0400 : 23.5N 140.6E : 320 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+120 : 24/1600 : : : : : :
+132 : 25/0400 : : : : : :
+144 : 25/1600 : : : : : :
*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1
minute mean wind***
DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:
ITOP22 has been a weak feature but has remained identifiable as
a vorticity cluster on models. Satellite imagery suggests a
little better organization over last 24 hours. Models (UK and EC
highly consistent on track. NOGAPS/GFS not so much. The concept
of recurvature NW of Guam has been a consistent feature for last
24 hours.
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:
Forecast for ITOP 22: Based on low level vorticiity fields for
24-36 hours. Low evel circulation evident on models afetr that.
JTWC issued Formation Alert at 19/0230Z
TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: ITOP022 Name: ITOP022
Issued at: 2228 UTC 19/09/2010
Data at: 1600 UTC 19 September 2010
TECHNICAL REMARKS
** Working track only - for information **
2 x ECMWF and1 x UK Track of vorticity only first 24-36 hours.
Circulation evident in low level wind fields after that time.
Latitude: 15.6N
Longitude: 148.8E
Location Accuracy: within 100 nm (185 km)
Movement Towards: west (261 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h)
Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 265 nm (490 km) east northeast
At +12: 245 nm (450 km) north northeast
At +24: 280 nm (520 km) north
At +36: 300 nm (560 km) north
At +48: 310 nm (580 km) north northwest
At +60: 340 nm (630 km) north northwest
At +72: 380 nm (710 km) north northwest
FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 19/1600 : 15.6N 148.8E : 100 : 020 : : 1010 :
+6 : 19/2200 : 16.5N 147.5E : 115 : 020 : 040 : 1008 :
+12 : 20/0400 : 17.2N 146.5E : 130 : 020 : 040 : 1005 :
+18 : 20/1000 : 17.8N 145.7E : 145 : 025 : 045 : 1003 :
+24 : 20/1600 : 18.1N 145.2E : 160 : 030 : 045 : 1000 :
+36 : 21/0400 : 18.5N 144.5E : 190 : 035 : 050 : 995 :
+48 : 21/1600 : 18.6N 143.5E : 220 : 040 : 055 : 985 :
+60 : 22/0400 : 18.7N 142.5E : 270 : 055 : 080 : 980 :
+72 : 22/1600 : 19.1N 141.8E : 320 : 070 : 100 : 970 :
+84 : 23/0400 : 20.2N 140.9E : 320 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+96 : 23/1600 : 21.4N 140.5E : 320 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+108 : 24/0400 : 23.5N 140.6E : 320 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+120 : 24/1600 : : : : : :
+132 : 25/0400 : : : : : :
+144 : 25/1600 : : : : : :
*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1
minute mean wind***
DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:
ITOP22 has been a weak feature but has remained identifiable as
a vorticity cluster on models. Satellite imagery suggests a
little better organization over last 24 hours. Models (UK and EC
highly consistent on track. NOGAPS/GFS not so much. The concept
of recurvature NW of Guam has been a consistent feature for last
24 hours.
Last edited by supercane on Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JTWC re-issued TCFA:
WTPN22 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZSEP2010//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 147.0E TO 21.3N 143.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE TUTT SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, REDUCING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
WTPN22 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZSEP2010//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 147.0E TO 21.3N 143.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE TUTT SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, REDUCING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
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00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 16N 147E WNW 10 KT.
Latest vis:
Latest IR:
Latest ASCAT:
Latest sat fix (no Dvorak given):
TPPN11 PGTW 200322
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 18.6N
D. 146.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/2201Z 18.3N 147.5E SSMS
BRANDON
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 16N 147E WNW 10 KT.
Latest vis:
Latest IR:
Latest ASCAT:
Latest sat fix (no Dvorak given):
TPPN11 PGTW 200322
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NE OF GUAM)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 18.6N
D. 146.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/2201Z 18.3N 147.5E SSMS
BRANDON
Last edited by supercane on Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Well, climatologic intensification is 1 T number a day. Current T number from KNES is 1.5, so in 2 1/2 days T number would be around 4.0 (1.5+(1*2.5)=4.0) corresponding to an intensity of 65kt. Not too far off from ITOP, except their winds are 10-min sustained, so have to add another 10% or so for 1-min sustained winds of 77-80kt, which is a larger difference. Agree that current environment does not appear to be so much more favorable than average to get up to that forecast. The circulation does look more established on ASCAT, so perhaps this is finally a go.
Latest Dvorak:
TXPN28 KNES 200330
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 18.6N
D. 146.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .25 BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=
Latest Dvorak:
TXPN28 KNES 200330
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 20/0232Z
C. 18.6N
D. 146.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .25 BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
=
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- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Not really suprised JT re-issued the warning on this, overall wind flow does look like this should move N then NE with the trough coming off of honshu. Only land that looks to be effected is IWO TO and theres about a total of 4 buildings on that island, not to worried...
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