WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 23.3N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 85NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 24.0N 122.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 191800UTC 23.8N 118.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 201800UTC 24.2N 114.1E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 23.3N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.9N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 24.1N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.2N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.2N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.2N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 126.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 15NM EYE AND A 171422Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
AN EYE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND AN
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATING MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. BY TAU 36, TY
FANAPI SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. AFTER TAU
48, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z
AND 182100Z.//
NNNN
015
TCNA21 RJTD 171800
CCAA 17180 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14233 11268 12234 250// 92809=
885
TCNA20 RJTD 172100
CCAA 17210 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14233 11264 122/4 2//// 92809=
TXPN27 KNES 172140
SIMWIR
A. 12W (FANAPI)
B. 17/2032Z
C. 23.4N
D. 126.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN ALMOST CLOUD FREE EYE AND
ORGANIZATION MORE SYMMETRIC. DT=5.5 BASED ON LG WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT OF
+0.5. FT BASED ON DT SINCE
LOOKS BETTER OVER 06HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/1705Z 23.4N 126.9E AMSU
...SWANSON
=
Recon also out flying.
