ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[plasticup]

ok, everyone needs to check out s2k's newest feature courtesy of x-y-no's hard work as well as Chris's of tropicaltalantic.com
Go to this link to see an automatic update of recon data via google earth (if you don't have google earth- you just need to download the plug in) super easy peasy! Thanks to both these guys for what they have added here. Right now you can move the map to see recon for all storms in the atlantic, BOC and the gulf. Just move over to the area where recon is for each storm and voila!
thanks again guys!

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109425&p=2067391#p2067391

That is shockingly awesome. A+++

[brunota2003]

I'm thinking recon might find him a little weaker than the sat's think he is...we are about to find out just how accurate those estimates are!

mf --> I'm hoping the buoy survives the entire encounter, that would be incredible surface data! One could compare that data with the current recon flight as well.

[GoneBabyGone]

Have they ever thought of putting publicly accessible webcams on weather buoys? That'd be something.

[brunota2003]

Windspeed at Station 41044 is already up over 46 knots, pressure down to 989mb, wave height over 32 feet.

The latest update (11:50 am EDT) had a max 1 minute average of 51.7 knots, a gust of 64.1 knots, wave height of 35.8 foot, and a pressure of 29.06" (984 millibars).

[Aric Dunn]

recon... 130kt FL winds.. 98 SFMR

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, if nothing else comes in, I would set the intensity at 110 kt.

[plasticup]

Have they ever thought of putting publicly accessible webcams on weather buoys? That'd be something.

That would be a lot of data to transmit from the middle of the ocean. When the buoys were deployed that kind of bandwidth was complete fantasy without enormous transmitting equipment.

[bvigal]

Have they ever thought of putting publicly accessible webcams on weather buoys? That'd be something.

That would be a lot of data to transmit from the middle of the ocean. When the buoys were deployed that kind of bandwidth was complete fantasy without enormous transmitting equipment.

They would be encrusted with so much salt in a few days, nothing would be visible from the camera.

[GoneBabyGone]

Have they ever thought of putting publicly accessible webcams on weather buoys? That'd be something.

That would be a lot of data to transmit from the middle of the ocean. When the buoys were deployed that kind of bandwidth was complete fantasy without enormous transmitting equipment.

They would be encrusted with so much salt in a few days, nothing would be visible from the camera.

Good point. There has to be some solution to that, but the cost/benefit probably doesn't make sense.

[cyclonic chronic]

man oh man igor is huge. theyve flown an hour so far with pressures sub 1000mb! insane.

[cyclonic chronic]

ok now an hour and ten minutes under 1000 mb.

[brunota2003]

Hm...the reduction is 0.9 in the eyewall (flying at 700mb, or 3000 meters), so the 130 knots would reduce to 117 at the surface...yet SMFR has only gone up to 98 knots? Perhaps a dropsonde will tell us if the reduction has to be modified or not (like with Isabel). I remember flight level winds with her supported Cat 3, but when they released the dropsonde, they found out the reduction really was 70 or 75%.

[Gigsley]

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 16:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Igor (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
955mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 82 knots (94 mph)
952mb 85° (from the E) 84 knots (97 mph)
944mb 85° (from the E) 121 knots (139 mph)
943mb 85° (from the E) 123 knots (142 mph)
938mb 85° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
935mb 90° (from the E) 133 knots (153 mph)
933mb 90° (from the E) 136 knots (157 mph)
923mb 100° (from the E) 127 knots (146 mph)
912mb 100° (from the E) 130 knots (150 mph)
903mb 105° (from the ESE) 139 knots (160 mph)
869mb 115° (from the ESE) 137 knots (158 mph)
850mb 120° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
697mb 140° (from the SE) 126 knots (145 mph)

[brunota2003]

Looking at the dropsonde, the wind when it was first released was 126 knots (at the 697mb level), and it recorded winds of 82 knots at the surface (955mb). That is a reduction of 65% from the "flight level" winds to what it recorded at the surface (65% comes out to 81.9). Does that mean the reduction is 65%? No, but still some interesting data.

EDIT: Looking through the SMFR data and comparing it to the flight level winds, 65% or 70% does match up with a lot of them.

[KWT]

To be honest I suspect 110kts probably is the better call right now if only based on presentation alone, recon is going to give us a good image over the next hour or so...

[Gustywind]

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Actually to be fair the NW quadrant looks better then it did about a few hours ago so thats a good sign at least!

[hurricaneCW]

Looks to be going to the east of the forecast, movement close to 310 with 315-320 wobbles. I think it's possible that Igor could move just to the east of Bermuda, which would be great news.

[plasticup]

Definitely regaining symmetry. Good for Igor, bad for Bermuda.