ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

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Florida1118

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#1001 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:38 pm

RL3AO wrote:Anyone else find it funny that there are no tropical storm warnings for the Yucatan which has a tropical storm crossing over it right now? The Western coast of the Yucatan is under a watch.

I assume the Mexican government didn't expect him to still be a TS, or the NHC just hasnt updated the Warnings Issued. (which will update in a few min...)
Last edited by Florida1118 on Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1002 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:38 pm

HURAKAN,

As in final destination Florida?
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1003 Postby atomic7732 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:44 pm

It appears to have an eye... Odd...
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#1004 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:22 pm

Image

Latest
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Re:

#1005 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:23 pm

RL3AO wrote:Anyone else find it funny that there are no tropical storm warnings for the Yucatan which has a tropical storm crossing over it right now? The Western coast of the Yucatan is under a watch.


While it may be still classified a tropical storm, considering it's so weak there's likely no tropical storm force winds sustained over land. Gusts, sure. They may upgrade if it intensifies rapidly just coming offshore and lashes the coast on the way out...
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1006 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:28 pm

Quick crossing and one of the best maintaining of form for a land crosser I've ever seen. With an eye even. One has to assume this will ramp back up quickly, right?
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#1007 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:31 pm

Shheeesh! The deep convection continues to refire and the organization looks impressive as it exits the coast. This should be interesting..bummer for Mexico again..
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1008 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:32 pm

Look out Tampico!


When it maintains like that it is telling you it was well on its way at landfall.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1009 Postby emeraldislencguy » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:46 pm

i agree it has been an amazing journey throigh the yucatan--it looks so weel organized will be interesting to see how fast it regains its strength
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#1010 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:47 pm

Image

boom boom pow
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#1011 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:58 pm

Image

Karl remained incredibly organized as it tracked across the peninsula
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1012 Postby cyberantonio » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:19 pm

watching Karl since yesterday, greetings from Tampico, Mexico!!!



Sanibel wrote:Look out Tampico!


When it maintains like that it is telling you it was well on its way at landfall.
Sanibel wrote:Look out Tampico!


When it maintains like that it is telling you it was well on its way at landfall.
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#1013 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:19 pm

Yes, this is Karl...according to the ADT...Special Advisory at about 11:30 to 12:00 perhaps?

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:53 N Lon : 90:44:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.3mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#1014 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:24 pm

ADT fail.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1015 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:25 pm

No way is that strong right now.
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#1016 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:26 pm

yeah no observations to support anything more than a minimal TS
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#1017 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:36 pm

Wow...what happened to the ADT? That'd be insane, RI over land...not happening.
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#1018 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:36 pm

Agreed that is an extremely high estimate, but it might be stronger than 35 kt for sure. Hopefully we get Recon out there soon.
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Re:

#1019 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:39 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed that is an extremely high estimate, but it might be stronger than 35 kt for sure. Hopefully we get Recon out there soon.


Tommorow morning will be the mission that departs at 4.45 AM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 16/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0313A KARL
C. 16/0845Z
D. 20.1N 91.7W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
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#1020 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:39 pm

Maybe they took one of those photo shopped photos of Igor and ran the ADT on it for grins and giggles :lol:
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