ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2010


SAT-TUE...(PREVIOUS) QUIET AND DRY FORECAST IN STORE THROUGH FOR THE
EXTENDED AS REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST
COMPONENT WILL NOT FAVOR ANY NOTABLE PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COASTAL WIND SURGE IS
INDICATED LATER DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SPIT OUT A FEW LOW
TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS AS A BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND
WATERS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE ROUGH SURF AND INCREASING RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL STARTING ON FRIDAY AS HURRICANE IGOR RECURVES WELL
EAST OF FLORIDA (FURTHER EAST THAN EARL)...REACHING OUR LATITUDE
AROUND SATURDAY EVENING. COASTAL HAZARDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
IMPACT WEATHER UPDATES...BRAGAW

[Gustywind]

[Stormhunter27]

Hey, I'm headed out for the intercept and staying at the Grotto Bay Resort too!

We're on the direct flight from Toronto to Bermuda tomorrow morning. We'll be setting up and shooting likely from the resort itself and then getting around for wind measurements as best we can.

It's still a real question as to what part of the 'cane will hit Bermuda directly.

[Epsilon_Fan]

from the latest few frames of satellite it seems like this thing is getting bigger and filling in again with the eye shrinking. Could it ramp up one more time?

[cpdaman]

from the latest few frames of satellite it seems like this thing is getting bigger and filling in again with the eye shrinking. Could it ramp up one more time?

look at this loop that is more up to date ....thru 545pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

this thing is now becoming a monster.....look at the difference in size between the first image and the last image.

[BIGWIND]

Hey, I'm headed out for the intercept and staying at the Grotto Bay Resort too!

We're on the direct flight from Toronto to Bermuda tomorrow morning. We'll be setting up and shooting likely from the resort itself and then getting around for wind measurements as best we can.

It's still a real question as to what part of the 'cane will hit Bermuda directly.

Great. I hope you got the special they're running with rooms starting at $99.

[hurricaneCW]

The new gfs starts out a good deal west of Bermuda but then curves sharply to the NE just to the west of Bermuda. Bermuda would probably get hurricane force winds and possibly the eastern eye wall.

[Malcome]

Wow. I like that recurve. Looks like Nova Scotia will be safe from this one, but I'l lwait a few more days before I will breathe a big sigh of relief

[cpdaman]

would it be a understatment to say that conditions at this bouy will be going downhill? 21.6 n 58.6 w

seas already over 20 feet....swell building rapidly above 15 feet....should be interesting to watch overnite and in the early am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

[cpdaman]

latest image at 2215 says.....I'm backkkkkk

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

this is becoming a real large storm

[lostinthetriangle]

Hey, I'm headed out for the intercept and staying at the Grotto Bay Resort too!

We're on the direct flight from Toronto to Bermuda tomorrow morning. We'll be setting up and shooting likely from the resort itself and then getting around for wind measurements as best we can.

It's still a real question as to what part of the 'cane will hit Bermuda directly.

Have a nice flight down, if you need help with something pm me.

I have been lurking around here for the last week or so after i followed a link to this forum. Have found it and the members most informative. Have a nice flight over, the weather on Thursday should be fine.

If this storm is anything like Fabian..............................Well that's on the top of my list of hurricanes I would rather forget! Other than that went through my hurricane supplies today, also topped up the generator and ran it for half an hour.

The shoppers are going crazy already, at least they leave some bread n milk on the shelves here!

[KWT]

Hey, I'm headed out for the intercept and staying at the Grotto Bay Resort too!

We're on the direct flight from Toronto to Bermuda tomorrow morning. We'll be setting up and shooting likely from the resort itself and then getting around for wind measurements as best we can.

It's still a real question as to what part of the 'cane will hit Bermuda directly.

The only problem with Bermuda is the system could well end up west/east of where its expecteds to hit, the island doesn't lead to much in the way of chase chances really if your into that sort of thing...

[abajan]

The cirrostratus outflow from Igor gave us a beautiful sunset today. Lots of yellow in the west and red pretty much everywhere else.

[Macrocane]

I think it is intensifying again, the outer eyewall is contracting and the cloud tops are cooling again, this may be the last chancefor Igor to reach cat 5.

[hurricaneCW]

I think it is intensifying again, the outer eyewall is contracting and the cloud tops are cooling again, this may be the last chancefor Igor to reach cat 5.

It has very little chance of reaching Cat 5 even after the EWRC is complete. The most I can see is 150 mph. The reason it can't is because the energy that was focused within the inner core has completely spread out and it continuing to spread out. This is what is causing the TS winds to increase well beyond 200 miles, the spread of energy beyond the inner core.

[expat2carib]

FYI BDA runway is 12/30 only one heading either 120 or 300....long at 9700 feet but as I said it is the crosswind limits on various aircraft types that stop travel there more than visibility or anything else. Bumping 25kts and issues start...over 35 kts and pretty much done. They had another runway in the 60's and 70's but it was closed due to construction of a large former NATO hanger. FYI depending on the waves the causeway that connects the Airport and St George to the rest of Bermuda could close first due to wave height/surge which pretty much ends it anyway.

I didn't think of the causeway going down first but you are probably right on that. Igor is a very large storm pushing a LOT of water ahead of it. Now I'm thinking tomorrow is probably the only sure window to fly in. I guess I better go pack.

http://bernews.com/2010/09/government-warns-hurricane-on-path-to-hit/

The Emergency Measures Organisation (EMO) met today and has this evening urged the Island’s residents to begin hurricane preparations by securing their properties and stocking up on hurricane supplies as Hurricane Igor – a very big and intense storm – is expected to hit Bermuda over the weekend.

The Island can expect tropical storm force winds sometime around midnight Saturday and even worse conditions late Sunday around midnight when the current forecast is for a direct hit. Residents are advised to take the warnings seriously as the Island has not experienced such an intense storm since Hurricane Fabian hit Bermuda in 2003.

By 3p.m. on Sunday, 50 knot east to south east winds are expected and winds will continue to increase and reach sustained hurricane force by 6 p.m. Sunday and continue through the night. If the island sustains a direct hit as is the current forecast, it also means 90-knot sustained winds with gusts above 115 knots (132mph); coastline areas can expect storm surges of 5 – 7 feet above normal tide levels; seas inside the reef are expected to rise 9 – 12 feet and outside the reef, there will be waves of 20 – 30 feet. The hurricane is also expected to drop as much as five inches of rain on the Island. ”

The EMO confirmed that Government Ministries, the Bermuda Regiment, Bermuda Fire & Rescue Service and the Bermuda Police Service are all in a state of readiness for the hurricane. Scheduled airline flights to and from this Island over the weekend will be affected by the weather and airline passengers should check with their respective airlines.

Minister of Labour, Home Affairs and Housing, Senator the Hon. Lt. Col. David A. Burch, OBE (Mil), ED JP said the EMO is monitoring the weather conditions. Further advisories will be issued by the EMO. “The Bermuda Weather Service will provide updates as required and I strongly encourage everyone to prepare” the Minister said. “In fact you should be getting prepared now – if you wait until Saturday evening, it will be too late.”

Minister Burch stressed that the safety of everyone on the Island is the number one priority and he discouraged persons from passing on rumours of information that has not officially been released by the EMO. “The EMO is the official voice of the hurricane,” the Minister added. “If it didn’t come from the EMO, it is probably incorrect information.”

[KWT]

Yeah the EWRC is causing the spread of the outernwind radius, this probably will become a very large hurricane in the next 3-5 days as the system fully matures, this obviously could lead to Bermuda getting hurricane winds even if the system doesn't score a landfall/direct hit...

[Macrocane]

It has very little chance of reaching Cat 5 even after the EWRC is complete. The most I can see is 150 mph. The reason it can't is because the energy that was focused within the inner core has completely spread out and it continuing to spread out. This is what is causing the TS winds to increase well beyond 200 miles, the spread of energy beyond the inner core.

That's a good point, that's the reason why Ike never reached cat 3 in the GOM, anyways Igos still has 24 hours to intensify so let's see if it does or not.

[Squarethecircle]

Very good image of the EWRC.

[KWT]

Yeah that is indeed a very good image of the EWRC, the northern eyewall hanging on for dear life from the looks of things!