ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[cpdaman]

i would not be in that much shock to see igor more more westerly for the next 48 hours.....and then after fri pm....i would be only semi-shocked to see it continue to make more of a WNW ...giving the carolina's a close call.

The several models show a decent high building over the west-central atlantic along with the 588 dm contour staying NW of the system for the next two days......and the exception was yesterday's ....12z euro which sniffed out the ridge staying in place thru late sat....which would give him time to cozy up a few hundred miles SE of the carolina's...now i don't think the latter is likely but i do think it bears watching.

IMO...also with tropical storm force winds extending nearly 250 miles ...i think the closest pass to the "islands" will be the island of anegada which has a latiutude of 18.7N and could be within 250 miles by it looks like fri am..(unless he picks up speed)

[BIGWIND]

Anyone flying to Bermuda on Friday morning besides me for an intercept?

[Gustywind]

VIGOR IGOR MOVING AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES

[cpdaman]

the eye seems to have contracted....i am now awaiting igor's ramp up to a possible cat 5......just get rid of the semi dry air.

12z euro has igor at 31/ 66 on sunday morn then about 35.5 / 65.8 on mon am... so the highest winds past just W of bermuda per 12z euro verbatim.

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 11, 2010091518, , BEST, 0, 198N, 552W, 115, 942, HU

no change, 115 knots

[plasticup]

Anyone flying to Bermuda on Friday morning besides me for an intercept?

I was there two weeks ago for Fiona, which was a bust. My family is there this week though.

[Gustywind]

[BIGWIND]

Anyone flying to Bermuda on Friday morning besides me for an intercept?

I was there two weeks ago for Fiona, which was a bust. My family is there this week though.

I'll be staying at the Grotto Bay Beach Resort.
I wonder when the airport in Bermuda will close in advance of Igor. I was thinking Saturday.

I was also wondering when the airport would reopen if they have a direct hit from Igor.

[plasticup]

What a sight.

[plasticup]

Anyone flying to Bermuda on Friday morning besides me for an intercept?

I was there two weeks ago for Fiona, which was a bust. My family is there this week though.

I'll be staying at the Grotto Bay Beach Resort.
I wonder when the airport in Bermuda will close in advance of Igor. I was thinking Saturday.

I was also wondering when the airport would reopen if they have a direct hit from Igor.

A direct hit might recreate the chaos of Hurricane Fabian. The airport is low lying and built on landfill. During Fabian there were 5 foot waves rolling down the runway. An 8 foot boulder ended up in the main terminal. The Causeway, the only road to the airport, was washed into the ocean (killing 4 people - the storm's only fatalities). For some time, even after the airport reopened, the only passage to it was by boat.

Grotto Bay is probably a good place to be. It is on Castle Harbor (which is always well protected) but a short drive you get you to the south shore, which will be an awesome sight. Even if Igor misses the island by 200 miles it will be impressive on the south shore.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic!!

[TheBurn]

[cpdaman]

igor has crossed 20N

seems the last few jogs have been due NW

[BIGWIND]

Thanks for the info Plasticup. Any thoughts as to when they'll close the airport in Bermuda in advance of Igor?

My flight gets there about 3pm on Friday. I figured that should be soon enough, but I'm not sure.

[plasticup]

Thanks for the info Plasticup. Any thoughts as to when they'll close the airport in Bermuda in advance of Igor?

My flight gets there about 3pm on Friday. I figured that should be soon enough, but I'm not sure.

Typically the airlines make that decision, rather than the government. But if you are getting there on Friday you should be plenty early.

[BIGWIND]

Thanks for the info Plasticup. Any thoughts as to when they'll close the airport in Bermuda in advance of Igor?

My flight gets there about 3pm on Friday. I figured that should be soon enough, but I'm not sure.

Typically the airlines make that decision, rather than the government. But if you are getting there on Friday you should be plenty early.

Ok. Sounds good. I'll try to give this forum real time updates from Bermuda.

[hiflyer]

Anyone flying to Bermuda on Friday morning besides me for an intercept?

I'll be staying at the Grotto Bay Beach Resort.

Ahhh..fond memories of Grotto bay and walking up the hill to the Swizzle Inn...plus the ice cream shoppe...and Dark and Stormy. Was there in spring after the last one setting up service for a new carrier on the island. Airport took a flooding beating...lots of vegetation damage...causeway from airport to town went out from surge in the bay there....but houses overall pretty good. Bermudians claim it is due to the coral mixed into the concrete they build everything with...including roofs. Coming from SoFla quickly learned best place to be in a Cat3 was there...by far.

As far as closing the airport watch the winds...crosswinds over 25-30mph will start disrupting service...over 35 and its pretty much over as the only diversion for BDA is back to the states...Wilmington NC is a favorite spot...so they have to fuel round trip and can not loiter that long waiting on winds to sag....

[hiflyer]

FYI BDA runway is 12/30 only one heading either 120 or 300....long at 9700 feet but as I said it is the crosswind limits on various aircraft types that stop travel there more than visibility or anything else. Bumping 25kts and issues start...over 35 kts and pretty much done. They had another runway in the 60's and 70's but it was closed due to construction of a large former NATO hanger. FYI depending on the waves the causeway that connects the Airport and St George to the rest of Bermuda could close first due to wave height/surge which pretty much ends it anyway.

[BIGWIND]

Thanks for the great info hiflyer. Looks like the forecast winds for Friday afternoon at BDA at 3pm will be close, but ok.
Gusts to 22 knots. What do you think? See link to BDA wind chart. Forecast winds for Sunday at 3pm are 83 knots.

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/bermuda_airport

I'd hate to be late to another intercept like I was for my trip to Marsh Harbor in Abaco for Floyd back in 1999. My flight was cancelled just 2 hours before it was scheduled to go. The eye passed directly over Marsh Harbor as a Cat 4.

[BIGWIND]

FYI BDA runway is 12/30 only one heading either 120 or 300....long at 9700 feet but as I said it is the crosswind limits on various aircraft types that stop travel there more than visibility or anything else. Bumping 25kts and issues start...over 35 kts and pretty much done. They had another runway in the 60's and 70's but it was closed due to construction of a large former NATO hanger. FYI depending on the waves the causeway that connects the Airport and St George to the rest of Bermuda could close first due to wave height/surge which pretty much ends it anyway.

I didn't think of the causeway going down first but you are probably right on that. Igor is a very large storm pushing a LOT of water ahead of it. Now I'm thinking tomorrow is probably the only sure window to fly in. I guess I better go pack.