ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

There you go.

INITIAL 15/0300Z 16.7N 30.9W 90 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 90 KT

Sometimes the NHC is very predictable, let's see what Julia does tonight, I still think we could have the 4th major on the next advisory.

[ROCK]

Have we ever had 3 majors in the ALT basin at one time? that would be interesting to know...

[TheBurn]

[Florida1118]

Lookin good...I say 4th Major at 11am...

[bob rulz]

At this rate, 2010 may set a record for major hurricanes...even if it doesn't get other records...

Still a loooong way to go. Julia has to make it first, for one.

This CV season just keeps on giving doesn't it...biggest CV season since 1995 no doubts!

Well I don't know, 2004 was a pretty vicious Cape Verde season between Frances and Ivan (and you can also add Danielle, Karl, and even Lisa on top of that).

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2010 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 16:48:27 N Lon : 31:13:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 968.2mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

If Julia becomes a major where she is now, she would be one of VERY few hurricanes to reach Cat 3 or higher east of 35W and south of 25N in the satellite era.

[CrazyC83]

From another source:

2010SEP15 044500 4.4 982.8/ +2.2 / 74.6 4.4 4.7 6.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -4.19 -72.17 EYE -99 IR 16.91 31.11 FCST

I would say Cat 3 by 5 am.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2010 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 16:52:10 N Lon : 31:10:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 962.2mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.6 6.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Julia looks to be RI'ing early this morning. I would put out a Special Advisory around 2 am to upgrade - looks to be about 105 kt to me.

[Weatherfreak000]

I cannot wait for morning visibles of this storm! Unbelievable! I can't stop imagining what will happen in late sept in the caribbean

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS NOW A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 150532
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE
DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED
THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE
EYE. A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0530Z 16.9N 31.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[RL3AO]

At this rate, 2010 may set a record for major hurricanes...even if it doesn't get other records...

Not sure if we'll get to 9, but we could tie it.

[CrazyC83]

WOW, it seems Julia wants a piece of the spotlight as well. I sure called that...although 110 kt is quite a high estimate.

[CrazyC83]

I believe NO storm in the satellite era has ever been 110 kt or stronger east of 35W. Fred was 105 kt.

Of course, those are all guesses (I wish they had Recon out there!!!) and before satellites, who knows there could have been a Cat 5 out there.

[brunota2003]

That is incredible! Two storms back to back RI...now look at Karl, he has those gray/black cloud tops as well...a third trying to get going?

[Florida1118]

Well she just couldnt wait till 5 could she? 4 majors in 3.5 weeks...

[CrazyC83]

That is incredible! Two storms back to back RI...now look at Karl, he has those gray/black cloud tops as well...a third trying to get going?

It seems that anything and everything is trying to become big all of a sudden! What next, a major hurricane forming in the high latitudes? Hey Lisa, where are you?

[FLpanhandle91]

Julia is about to explode in intensity... When was the last time we had two cat 4s in the ATL basin?