ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Another view of the eye-feature.

[brunota2003]

Three intensity estimates from CIMSS has it at:
ADT: 994 mb 55 kt (03:15Z)
AMSU: 994 mb 58 kt (20Z)
SATCON: 994 mb 57 kt (20Z)

And the ADT:

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 15:37:02 N Lon : 28:02:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -33.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Macrocane]

Perhaps Julia will become a hurricane sooner than expected.

[fasterdisaster]

I think they're underestimating her intensity by a LOT.

[HURAKAN]

quite a change!

[hurricaneCW]

I think they're underestimating her intensity by a LOT.

Absolutely, she looks like she's nearing hurricane status, I'd go with 65-70 for the next advisory.

[Florida1118]

Theres no reason for them to be conservative or wait for H status. Shes well on her way and at 5 we may see Hurricane Julia.

[lester]

Best Track has it at 60 kts *bump*

[Lori]

Welcome Hurricane Julia!

From the NHC:

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE FIFTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

[bob rulz]

Wow, straight to hurricane. Talk about quick intensification.

[WeatherGuesser]

Wow, straight to hurricane. Talk about quick intensification.

Huh?

It's been a TS for what, 36 hours?

[abajan]

Wow, straight to hurricane. Talk about quick intensification.

Huh?

It's been a TS for what, 36 hours?

I think bob rulz was talking about it going straight to a hurricane instead of just a stronger tropical storm from the 11 pm to 5 am updates. But I agree it’s a strange way to phrase it.

[bob rulz]

Sorry, yes, I did just mean straight to hurricane instead of a 70mph tropical storm for example. That's 50 to 75mph in 6 hours which isn't unheard of but is still pretty quick, especially for this part of the basin.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Not a bad looking system, not all that surprising it made it to hurricane status though it did manage it even earlier then expected, and interestingly managed it east of 30W as well.

[cyclonic chronic]

its not suprising at all. it was at 50kt at 5 p.m. yet looked better than that. she only needed 15 or so knots to be up-graded, probably could've called it at 11. they waited till vis came up. might even make it to cat 2 status in the next day or so. just goes to show how bad intensity forecasts are, just a guess really.

[KWT]

Yeah CC I thought it looked stronger then it was yesterday, its just that Dvorak caught up with the systems strengthening overnight it seems which has promoted the NHC to upgrade.

[bob rulz]

Julia, at 29W, is now the furthest east Cape Verde storm to develop into a hurricane since Jeanne in 1998, beating out Fred last year (30.6W) and Danielle in 2004 (30W), but falling fall short of Jeanne (26W). However, Vince in 2005 was much further east (18.6W), it just wasn't a Cape Verde hurricane. Still though, that's quite impressive. Conditions out there are ridiculously favorable this year.

EDIT: Frances in 1980 seems to hold the non-Vince record, becoming a hurricane at 25.6W. In addition to Ivan, also in 1980 (30.5W), these are the only hurricanes that have formed east of 32W in the modern era. As far as I can tell, Julia is the fourth-easternmost hurricane to develop in the Atlantic basin (this of course doesn't count storms that moved into these longitudes while they were already hurricanes).

[canes101]

Hello Julia Gulia! Looking good this morning

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite impressive