HWRF and Canadian had it tracking north of the DR and Cuba on Friday. As for the NAM, it's hard to imagine a worse tropical model (maybe NOGAPS). There isn't really much to track now. If there is any LLC, it's very broad and weak. I'm becoming more doubtful that this system is going to develop. Fair chance, but not a guarantee. Maybe we can get a little moisture out of it here in Texas when it moves inland to our south.
Here's the model plot from last Thursday. Canadian, NOGAPS and HWRF way too far north:
![Image](http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal92_2010090918_track_early.png)
On Friday, HWRF was way too far north, still. And note the consensus model TVCN over Cuba.
![Image](http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal92_2010091012_track_early.png)
HWRF continues to do terribly on Saturday. It's the right outlier with LBAR and Climo:
![Image](http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal92_2010091112_track_early.png)
92L has been following along quite well with the bulk of model guidance, taking it very near Jamaica then toward the central to southern Yucatan. I still don't see anything in the current or predicted mid to upper-level flow pattern to bring a storm to Texas this week. Interesting long-range GFS, though.