ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[RL3AO]

It doesn't quite have the eye of a cat 4 yet, but its getting there. Probably 100 to 105kt right now.

[Macrocane]

no reason for a special advisory its clearly in RI and why put out a special advisory just to raise the winds at 5 again. better wait till 5 and make it 115 or more.

I think it wouldn't be the first time they release a special advisory to tell that a hurricane has reached major hurricane status even if it is away from land. IMO this morning was already stronger than 90 kt at the time of the advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

no reason for a special advisory its clearly in RI and why put out a special advisory just to raise the winds at 5 again. better wait till 5 and make it 115 or more.

I think it wouldn't be the first time they release a special advisory to tell that a hurricane has reached major hurricane status even if it is away from land. IMO this morning was already stronger than 90 kt at the time of the advisory.

well they do it if its nearing land...

[hurricaneCW]

I'm very confident that Igor is a strong Cat 3/weak Cat 4. The presentation continues to get better and better. I recall Earl classified as a Cat 4 when he looked like a degenerating Cat 3, Igor looks much better than that.

[dixiebreeze]

Igor wobbling SW a bit: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what the BT for 1800Z will say. I would put it at 110 kt right now.

[brunota2003]

Wow...one frame the eye had all kinds of debris in it, two frames later it is clear! Yeesh...what do the ADT #s say? The others were at 4.5/4.5 (77 knots), despite the fact it is clearly way stronger.

[blazess556]

Its a cat 4 now with 135 mph winds.

[HurricaneBelle]

WTNT31 KNHC 121806
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

no surprise!

[brunota2003]

Aww...look at the mini male version of Isabel! They'd make such a cute couple =]

[Boriken]

Pics plssss I want to see that beast.

[HURAKAN]

release the Kraken!!!

[brunota2003]

Well, this ought to be an interesting discussion.

[Aric Dunn]

well alrighty .... i will eat my own words... lol figured they would wait..

[Vortex]

Spectacular! may have the stadium effect at sunset

[CrazyC83]

Cat 5 this evening I would think...

[hurricaneCW]

I could see this making a run at Cat 5 status, but I'm thinking it tops out at 155 mph, just shy of Cat 5 status. It's gradually getting larger as well but once the intensification period is over, Igor will probably go under an EWRC cycle and expand even further, weaken to a Cat 2-3, and then re-intensify back to a Cat 4.

[RL3AO]

Cat 5 this evening I would think...

Possibly, but it takes something special for them to upgrade to cat 5 without recon.

[CrazyC83]

Cat 5 this evening I would think...

Possibly, but it takes something special for them to upgrade to cat 5 without recon.

So true, you would need T7.0 across the board pretty much, or at least one agency having a T7.5. Isabel was the last storm upgraded to Cat 5 with no Recon in the Atlantic.