ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

I've gotta admit I do think 85kts is too low as well, 90-95kts probably looks better right given the rate of strengthening that is occuring...will probably be a major today, maybe even close to a 4 by the time this day is out.

[Stephanie]

IMHO, when a hurricane is showing a solid eye like that, it's more than a Cat 1.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... small system

[expat2carib]

"Don't" worry it will become big.

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

IMHO, when a hurricane is showing a solid eye like that, it's more than a Cat 1.

Yep. Cycloneye confirmed on the previous page (around the middle) that it’s at least a Cat2 right now.

[cycloneye]

IMHO, when a hurricane is showing a solid eye like that, it's more than a Cat 1.

Yep. Cycloneye confirmed on the previous page (around the middle) that it’s at least a Cat2 right now.

Well,not me exactly ,but what I posted from the 12z Best Track.

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, September 12, 2010 920 am EDT/820 am CDT


Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Igor is strengthening at a pretty good clip and I suspect that it may be stronger than the 80 mph intensity posted by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am this morning. This reasoning is based on the satellite presentation as the overall cloud pattern is much more symmetrical and the hurricane has an eye.

Environmental conditions are favorable for further strengthening for at least the next few days as Igor will be tracking over steadily warmer sea surface temperatures and it will be in an area of low wind shear. I expect Igor to strengthen to Category 3 intensity by Monday night or Tuesday morning and then strengthen to at least a Category 4 hurricane by about Wednesday. So, it looks likely that Igor will be a very intense and large hurricane in the next couple of days.

Now comes the million dollar question, where will Igor eventually track?? As of this morning, Igor is tracking to the west at a forward speed of 17 to 18 mph underneath a ridge of high pressure to the north. This ridge of high pressure is expected to keep Igor on this westward track for at least the next 2 to 3 days. After about Tuesday, this ridge of high pressure is forecast to erode thanks to a trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic. This will cause Igor to turn more to the west-northwest and northwest starting on Wednesday.

Looking at the long term prospects for Igor, some of the model guidance like the European model have shifted much further west in its forecast track and show a track very similar to Hurricane Earl. Other guidance like the GFS model forecast a curve into the open Atlantic around 65 West Longitude or so. The shift westward forecast by the European model seems realistic. The reason why is because we are shifting into a weather pattern that features high pressure building over the northwest Atlantic. In addition, the overall weather pattern over the next week to 10 days features a polar vortex that will dive into Canada causing strong blocking over Alaska. This type of pattern tells me that we should have even stronger high pressure build over southeastern Canada and the northeast US.

So, I suspect and fear that we will see further west adjustments in the forecast track of Igor and the track could end up being very similar to that of Hurricane Earl with a curve north and northeast near or just west of 70 West Longitude. At the very least, Igor poses an eventual threat to Bermuda and maybe the US East Coast and Canadian Maritimes. It should be added that the latest Canadian model is similar to the European model and forecasts Igor to reach 70 West Longitude before curving out into the open Atlantic.

So, in conclusion, Igor will be a very large and very intense hurricane this week and we will have to continue to keep a very close eye on it.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[KWT]

No doubts in my mind at all this is heading for the 145-160mph sort of range given the conditions aloft and the fact its only heading towards warmer and warmer waters. Along with Earl this will likely be the big long tracker that stands out from the CV zone, like what Luis was in 1995, etc.

The question is does this have a shot at making 50 units of ACE?
If it really does explode and can keep it sustained for a long time then its gotta be a shot at it, Luis managed it and this one is strengthening at a similar location to Luis...

[hurricaneCW]

Igor is concentrating all of his energy within the immediate core so it's a tiny, but powerful system. Definitely going to be a major later today. As far as the size goes, it will expand once it begins its first EWRC which could be as early as tomorrow once the strengthening phase is over.

[cycloneye]

IMO, Igor will surpass by far the 27.7750 ACE units that Earl got.

[cheezyWXguy]

Doesnt it sorta remind you of isabel? The big eye and small structure seem similar to when it was starting to really get going, just as igor is now. Funny(not ha ha) thing is, it wouldnt surprise me to see it get that strong at some point either..

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 45.7W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

[plasticup]

IMO, Igor will surpass by far the 27.7750 ACE units that Earl got.

Hmmm, I don't know. Earl was large, moved slowly, and stayed at Cat 4 for several days, which is ideal for an ACE-machine. What Igor has going for it is that it is strengthening further east, which may let it track longer at high intensity.

[plasticup]

Doesnt it sorta remind you of isabel? The big eye and small structure seem similar to when it was starting to really get going, just as igor is now. Funny(not ha ha) thing is, it wouldnt surprise me to see it get that strong at some point either..

But whatever crown weather says, I can't see this being a threat to land other than Bermuda. The troughing is too strong and the models are in such good agreement. That's an important difference from Isabel!

[cycloneye]

[plasticup]

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IGOR IS GOING THROUGH
A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CLEARING EYE AND INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN SSMIS OVERPASS REVEAL AN
INTENSE FULLY-DEVELOPED INNER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW
HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONE WHERE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RESIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...A
UW-CIMSS ADT OF 107 KT...AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 86 KT...THAT
INCLUDES A BLEND OF AMSU MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.

90 knots!

[bvigal]

That's +20kt and -18mb from last advisory!

[Scorpion]

Wouldn't be surprised to just skip Cat 3 all together at 5 at the rate this is intensifying

[abajan]

... As far as the size goes, it will expand once it begins its first EWRC which could be as early as tomorrow once the strengthening phase is over.

It’s already expanding and to my knowledge, there has been no EWRC. At 5 AM hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds extended 25 miles and 115 miles respectively from the center. Now hurricane force winds extend 35 miles and tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles.