ATL: KARL - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Further north into Mexicon on 0z EURO run. Ridge not as strong, neither is the cyclone.
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ECM still likes this area in about 48hrs and has been pretty keen on developing this region for days, will be interesting to see if it actually happens.
Nothing too strong but it probably does develop a TS into the Yucatan.
Nothing too strong but it probably does develop a TS into the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
12z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 121249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100912 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100912 1200 100913 0000 100913 1200 100914 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 70.7W 16.5N 73.1W 16.9N 75.4W 17.5N 77.8W
BAMD 15.7N 70.7W 16.2N 73.2W 16.7N 75.6W 17.2N 78.0W
BAMM 15.7N 70.7W 16.3N 73.2W 16.8N 75.7W 17.3N 78.2W
LBAR 15.7N 70.7W 16.6N 73.4W 17.6N 76.0W 18.6N 78.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100914 1200 100915 1200 100916 1200 100917 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 80.4W 18.8N 85.8W 19.6N 91.0W 20.0N 95.1W
BAMD 17.7N 80.4W 18.4N 86.0W 19.2N 91.5W 19.6N 95.8W
BAMM 17.7N 80.8W 18.4N 86.6W 19.2N 92.1W 19.6N 96.4W
LBAR 19.6N 80.4W 21.6N 84.5W 23.4N 88.0W 24.9N 89.3W
SHIP 64KTS 80KTS 95KTS 107KTS
DSHP 64KTS 80KTS 50KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 70.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.2N LONM12 = 67.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
I guess extrapolation is not a bad "model" this time
Seriously, IF it develops it bears watching even if it is just a TS or cat 1 hurricane, Stan was only a cat 1 and caused serious flooding and mudslides in the region so I'm watching carefully this system.
Seriously, IF it develops it bears watching even if it is just a TS or cat 1 hurricane, Stan was only a cat 1 and caused serious flooding and mudslides in the region so I'm watching carefully this system.
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Yeah exactly and remember Hermine dropped alot of rain in this area as well recently so if the ECM came off then flooding would possibly be a big issue I'd have thought.
ECM still keen on development, hard to go against it when its that presistant on development.
ECM still keen on development, hard to go against it when its that presistant on development.
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ECM makes it a moderate TS hitting the Central Yucatan and then into the BoC with very favourable conditions and rapidly drops 20mbs, probably would be a decent 1/2 into Mexico on this run.
Not unrealistic solution IMO either given La Nina.
Not unrealistic solution IMO either given La Nina.
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Landfall looks to be in a similar place to where Hermine hit, which would also enance the flooding threat even if this ends up only weakly developing...
ECM ensembles are actually quite agressive with this FWIW developing this into a decent system...
GFDL loses it but it is trackable, HWRF develops it and then *totally* loses the plot, take a look!
ECM ensembles are actually quite agressive with this FWIW developing this into a decent system...
GFDL loses it but it is trackable, HWRF develops it and then *totally* loses the plot, take a look!
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Re: ATL: 92L - Models
[quote="Wx_Warrior"]
not taking the image tag off Mods... so sorry....just need to make a point about this ECM run at 168hr...
where is the ridge and why is 92 not gaining lat? it obvious if a LLC sets up shop say above Jam then this run can go into the garbage.....blinders back on....
not taking the image tag off Mods... so sorry....just need to make a point about this ECM run at 168hr...
where is the ridge and why is 92 not gaining lat? it obvious if a LLC sets up shop say above Jam then this run can go into the garbage.....blinders back on....
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Rock, there is a upper ridge in place, a slight weakness does develop but the system is just too far south to really get any impacts from it, so it just skips it by like we've seen with countless other storms.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA096.gif
96hrs out, notice all the oranges and the 588 colouring...there is your upper high...its not actually that strong but its enough to take a system that far south into Mexico quite deep down...
I actually think though the ECM maybe a touch too far south but we will see!
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA096.gif
96hrs out, notice all the oranges and the 588 colouring...there is your upper high...its not actually that strong but its enough to take a system that far south into Mexico quite deep down...
I actually think though the ECM maybe a touch too far south but we will see!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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