ATL: KARL - Models
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So difficult to say at this point where this may go...it almost seems crazy to even speculate...
MIMIC imagery is honestly not all too impressive...most vorticity is located slightly SW of the main convective blowup....which has been already dieing off today.
I need to see some more spin develop before I feel confident we even have development. 60% is classic professional work from the NHC.
MIMIC imagery is honestly not all too impressive...most vorticity is located slightly SW of the main convective blowup....which has been already dieing off today.
I need to see some more spin develop before I feel confident we even have development. 60% is classic professional work from the NHC.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
>>MIMIC imagery is honestly not all too impressive...most vorticity is located slightly SW of the main convective blowup....which has been already dieing off today.
Agreed. It took off in the middle of the night, peaked, and is waning now. But it does have a fairly large envelope. And is often the case in the Caribbean in September, one of these pulses could have staying power. It wasn't last night's, but possibly today or tomorrow as the evolution continues. KWT said he was sufficiently convinced the energy was there, and there is reasonable model support outside of the GFS to think that it may crank.
Oh and GFDL coming in much weaker at 12z
Agreed. It took off in the middle of the night, peaked, and is waning now. But it does have a fairly large envelope. And is often the case in the Caribbean in September, one of these pulses could have staying power. It wasn't last night's, but possibly today or tomorrow as the evolution continues. KWT said he was sufficiently convinced the energy was there, and there is reasonable model support outside of the GFS to think that it may crank.
Oh and GFDL coming in much weaker at 12z
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
18z Tropical Models Suite
Code: Select all
564
WHXX01 KWBC 111906
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1906 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100911 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100911 1800 100912 0600 100912 1800 100913 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 65.7W 15.3N 67.5W 15.9N 69.5W 16.5N 71.4W
BAMD 14.6N 65.7W 15.2N 68.0W 15.7N 70.3W 16.1N 72.6W
BAMM 14.6N 65.7W 15.2N 68.0W 15.8N 70.2W 16.3N 72.5W
LBAR 14.6N 65.7W 15.5N 68.1W 16.4N 70.5W 17.2N 72.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 53KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100913 1800 100914 1800 100915 1800 100916 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 73.4W 18.2N 77.8W 19.1N 82.6W 19.9N 87.3W
BAMD 16.7N 74.6W 17.8N 79.0W 18.8N 84.5W 19.7N 89.6W
BAMM 16.9N 74.7W 18.0N 79.5W 19.0N 85.1W 19.7N 90.5W
LBAR 18.4N 74.8W 20.7N 78.3W 23.1N 81.3W 23.7N 82.3W
SHIP 67KTS 81KTS 92KTS 109KTS
DSHP 67KTS 81KTS 92KTS 46KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 65.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 62.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
A bit more spread with the latest (18z) model runs...a few more tracks north of Jamaica
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:The lbar and clp5 that track north of Jamaica are not exactly good models. Just throw them out.
After I first read the labels Lbar and Clipper I lol'ed and then saw the HWRF and CMC too! So I laughed again, because they are in good company.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
How accurate are model runs when they are initiated based on an estimated low level center that has...to my knowledge...not been identified yet?
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
jinftl wrote:A bit more spread with the latest (18z) model runs...a few more tracks north of Jamaica
The consensus is south of Jamaica besides the CMC and HWRF those models tracking north of Jamaica should not be used for forecasting guidance. The CMC and HWRF have some strange tracks and as WXMAN pointed out in the discussion thread the steering flow will be east to west over the W Caribbean Sea and Gulf..so it would be hard for the northern tracks to verify.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
00z Tropical Models Suite
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WHXX01 KWBC 120036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100912 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100912 0000 100912 1200 100913 0000 100913 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 67.5W 16.1N 69.6W 17.1N 71.8W 17.8N 74.0W
BAMD 15.2N 67.5W 15.9N 69.7W 16.5N 71.8W 17.1N 73.8W
BAMM 15.2N 67.5W 16.0N 69.8W 16.6N 72.1W 17.2N 74.4W
LBAR 15.2N 67.5W 16.4N 70.2W 17.5N 72.8W 18.7N 75.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100914 0000 100915 0000 100916 0000 100917 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 76.2W 19.7N 81.4W 20.9N 86.8W 22.1N 91.4W
BAMD 17.8N 75.7W 19.1N 80.2W 20.3N 85.3W 21.7N 89.7W
BAMM 17.9N 76.5W 19.0N 81.7W 20.2N 87.4W 21.5N 92.2W
LBAR 19.9N 77.1W 22.2N 80.1W 24.2N 82.1W 25.4N 81.9W
SHIP 65KTS 79KTS 92KTS 105KTS
DSHP 56KTS 65KTS 68KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 64.1W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Wx_Warrior wrote:GFS 0z nada
I think the gfs dropped this system a couple of days ago. Remember it did the same thing for gaston though other models insisted on development. The gfs certainly seems to have the synoptics right in this part of the basin.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
really it all depends where a LLC sets up shop (if it does develop) for any of these runs to verify.....GFS withstanding....
oz NAM sees it.....
oz NAM sees it.....
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
ROCK wrote:really it all depends where a LLC sets up shop (if it does develop) for any of these runs to verify.....GFS withstanding....
oz NAM sees it.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Wx_Warrior wrote:0z CMC nada
yep....0z NOGAPS nada.....weird the NHC kept it at 60% given the models are dropping like flys...
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
ROCK wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:0z CMC nada
yep....0z NOGAPS nada.....weird the NHC kept it at 60% given the models are dropping like flys...
Convection is on the rise...
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
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