ATL: KARL - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

moving at 300 Deg now....

Yep, the graphic doesn't show it but the coordinates do...

[petit_bois]

bad news.... this CAN'T be a fish and I'm afraid it's gonna be a GOM'er

[ConvergenceZone]

bad news.... this CAN'T be a fish and I'm afraid it's gonna be a GOM'er

Yep, more than likely another storm for Mexico. Man those guys have been getting pounded this year....

[tolakram]

12Z Euro at 72 hours

[Vortex]

18Z Nam at H+42..Organizing



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[Vortex]

NAM H+66


Strengthening south of DR



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H+78 continues to organize and looks to be heading towards DR or Haiti.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z NAM Loop...stronger and weakness to the north turns "Julia" towards DR.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[barometerJane61]

H+78 continues to organize and looks to be heading towards DR or Haiti.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

Poor Haiti.They just ha d an earthquake not long ago. Its a gonner if it goes over DR.If it doesn't.GOM states are in trouble

[CourierPR]

bad news.... this CAN'T be a fish and I'm afraid it's gonna be a GOM'er

Yep, more than likely another storm for Mexico. Man those guys have been getting pounded this year....

Both of you might be wrong. The eventual track may be more to the north.

[petit_bois]

bad news.... this CAN'T be a fish and I'm afraid it's gonna be a GOM'er

Yep, more than likely another storm for Mexico. Man those guys have been getting pounded this year....

Both of you might be wrong. The eventual track may be more to the north.

I hope you're right... I'm a afraid if it stays week it will likely continue wnw and explode to the south of us.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z models should be rather interesting. PREDICT research mission data should be in the data ingest for the EC and GFS tonight.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL is on it again after not showing up at 12z. Runs ends in Yucatan.

548
WHXX04 KWBC 102349
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 60.6 300./ 5.0
6 13.8 61.8 309./15.0
12 14.3 62.6 299./ 9.2
18 14.9 64.1 291./15.0
24 15.8 65.9 298./20.3
30 15.8 67.1 267./11.5
36 16.2 68.2 289./11.4
42 16.4 69.8 280./14.7
48 16.7 71.4 278./16.0
54 16.7 72.7 274./12.0
60 16.7 73.7 268./ 9.6
66 17.1 75.1 285./14.2
72 17.1 76.2 268./10.7
78 17.3 77.5 281./12.3
84 17.3 78.7 271./11.6
90 17.6 79.9 280./12.0
96 17.8 81.3 279./13.5
102 18.1 82.7 281./13.4
108 18.4 84.2 282./14.6
114 18.8 85.7 284./14.9
120 19.1 87.1 285./13.4
126 19.5 88.4 284./13.3

[South Texas Storms]

The 00Z models should be rather interesting. PREDICT research mission data should be in the data ingest for the EC and GFS tonight.

yeah hopefully this will give us some more accurate model results. im looking forward to them.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Same thing here. At least we will have a better idea as to where 92l will go.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 110045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100911 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  0000   100911  1200   100912  0000   100912  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  61.1W   14.3N  62.7W   15.3N  64.3W   16.0N  66.3W
BAMD    13.4N  61.1W   14.2N  63.2W   14.9N  65.2W   15.7N  67.3W
BAMM    13.4N  61.1W   14.2N  63.0W   15.2N  65.0W   16.0N  67.1W
LBAR    13.4N  61.1W   14.1N  62.8W   15.2N  64.7W   16.2N  66.6W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  0000   100914  0000   100915  0000   100916  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  68.2W   17.9N  72.4W   18.8N  77.4W   19.3N  82.7W
BAMD    16.4N  69.4W   18.0N  73.2W   19.6N  77.0W   20.5N  80.4W
BAMM    16.9N  69.2W   18.6N  73.2W   20.0N  77.4W   20.8N  81.5W
LBAR    17.2N  68.6W   19.3N  72.1W   21.9N  74.8W   24.0N  76.1W
SHIP        58KTS          69KTS          76KTS          89KTS
DSHP        58KTS          65KTS          59KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.4N LONCUR =  61.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  60.0W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  59.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Bailey1777]

according to that gfdl graph 92 should start moving at a better clip soon...imo whatever this becomes will take a track between what is being shown and shoot the gap between the yucatan and w. cuba and then take a wnw heading

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL bombs to a cat 3 in the Western Caribbean before slamming into Yucatan.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Bailey1777]

bamd is close to what im thinking.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks like an Alex part 2 doesn't it?