ATL: IGOR - Models

[KWT]

Yeah BUT the 06z GFS was a good 300-500 miles east of *all* the other recent GFS runs, so really the shift is possibly only 300-400 miles west of the other runs from the 12z GFS...still keep that trend up and it may make a difference over a number of runs.

Look at the 18z last night for example, its exactly the same longitude as the 12z GFS today.

With regards to any possible upper blocking though over E.Canada, that needs to be wached closely, its the wildcard that could shunt this off a recurve pattern.

[Steve H.]

You can throw out anything beyond the 144 hour run on he GFS, as it traps him on holds onto to him until ridges and troughs go by to the north. The upper air pattern will be too difficult to nail down beyond 180 hours. A lot of possibilities, even weakening if he sits and spins. He is beginning to book west now with some easterly shear still. The more progress he can make under this ridge in the next 3 days is my biggest concern.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is almost the same as GFS.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFLTropics]

Any new updates from the Euro yet?

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

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369
WHXX01 KWBC 101857
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1857 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100910 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  1800   100911  0600   100911  1800   100912  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  32.3W   17.3N  34.5W   18.4N  37.1W   19.7N  40.1W
BAMD    16.6N  32.3W   17.0N  35.3W   17.6N  38.2W   18.3N  41.0W
BAMM    16.6N  32.3W   17.3N  35.0W   18.2N  37.9W   19.1N  41.2W
LBAR    16.6N  32.3W   17.1N  35.6W   17.9N  39.4W   18.5N  42.9W
SHIP        40KTS          50KTS          61KTS          71KTS
DSHP        40KTS          50KTS          61KTS          71KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  1800   100913  1800   100914  1800   100915  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.1N  44.0W   22.7N  52.2W   22.0N  59.5W   18.4N  64.3W
BAMD    18.9N  43.7W   20.0N  48.6W   21.1N  53.2W   21.7N  57.4W
BAMM    19.9N  44.6W   20.4N  51.4W   19.0N  56.7W   17.2N  57.2W
LBAR    19.2N  46.2W   19.8N  51.4W   19.3N  53.9W   19.9N  56.7W
SHIP        81KTS          93KTS          98KTS          95KTS
DSHP        81KTS          93KTS          98KTS          95KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.6N LONCUR =  32.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  15.9N LONM12 =  28.7W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  14.9N LONM24 =  26.3W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  40NM
 


[floridasun78]

i think it too early to say it going turn even nhc have move track more west it look like high going build more west that troughs wont strong turn i see met here say it for sure thing that will turn i think too early to say that nhc think it go more west let see next few days models run to see what their show

[Wx_Warrior]

Someone asked about EURO....

[KWT]

This one does need to be watched, esp for those further north and esp in SE Canada, because the pattern will not be condusive to a total recurve, just a straight lift northwards into the jet and that means if it gets to 60-65W it'll probably be a threat to not only Bermuda but also SE Canada/NE US.

Despite all I've been saying it'd be a little foolish at this stage to totally assume a recurve, pattern should lead to one but land threat is still possible...esp if the ridge builds stronger then expected.

[KWT]

A very interesting change has been showing up on at least the GFS but some other models as well in the last few runs...the upper trough that was meant to dig down and help to lift this out at say 50-55W is now forecasted to become a upper level low in its own right and what this means is it doesn't dig as deep and ends up undergoing a sort of Fujiwara around the bigger trough to its west...

Net result...this one probably gets further west before it starts to feel the effects of any weakness...and it makes things somewhat less clear cut as well.

[Aquawind]

What the heck are the BAMS and NOGAPS thinking..sheesh. Ceviche mmmmmm

[KWT]

GFS looks far from convincing with regards to a recurve this run out to at least 132hrs, the weakness is there but its flat and the system is still south of 20N by 55W. Trough axis is about at 65-70W so if it were to stick south of say 28-30N then a big threat to the east coast would be probable...but thats a long ole way down the line to be fair!

[cycloneye]

Much closer to the U.S East Coast than ever before.

[blazess556]

igor is definitely not an absolute certainty to recurve.

[x-y-no]

18z GFS run tracks for Igor and his younger sibling are starting to look very reminiscent of Earl and Fiona. Still to the right of their tracks but getting pretty close. It'll be very interesting to see if this trend continues.

[Aquawind]

igor is definitely not an absolute certainty to recurve.

Aboslute forecasts are rare in weather..even 24 hours out..

[KWT]

A track close to Earl but maybe a bit further east is certainly possible IF what the GFS does with the upper trough around 96-144hrs occurs and it develops its own upper circulation, thats the difference between a 55W recurve and possibly a close call for the east coast and esp SE Canada.

Will be interesting to see what the hurricane models make of it!

[hurricaneCW]

The lack of a strong weakness to curve this thing is becoming more evident. Like I said before, if Igor were traveling westward a bit further south right now, then there would be a strong possibility of it reaching the east coast. Right now that possibility is pretty low but it's there. I definitely agree that Bermuda and SE Canada could be under the gun. Note that the models are gradually shifting further west exactly like they did with Earl.

I think Igor will be a large, stronger version of Earl that a good deal further east than he did from both the islands and the East Coast just because of its current position and setup.

[MWatkins]

A track close to Earl but maybe a bit further east is certainly possible IF what the GFS does with the upper trough around 96-144hrs occurs and it develops its own upper circulation, thats the difference between a 55W recurve and possibly a close call for the east coast and esp SE Canada.

Will be interesting to see what the hurricane models make of it!

Also, I am watching VERY closely for a WSW jog. I think Igor's moving due west now and it just looks like a SW dive because the convection is rotating around SW of the center.

However, as long as Igor is lopsided and the convection stays SW of the center, it could tug the track WSW for a while here and there over the next few days, since the pressure on the system from the strong high will push down on the envelope.

That could make a huge difference, and the 18Z GFS is very Earl like in track.

I think we will be watching 20/60 very closely. If it passes south of there...lookout.

MW

[Typhoon_Willie]

Sounds like that could be trouble there Mike. Let's hope there will be no trouble.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 110032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100911 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100911  0000   100911  1200   100912  0000   100912  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  34.2W   17.8N  36.5W   19.0N  39.0W   20.4N  42.3W
BAMD    17.0N  34.2W   17.7N  36.9W   18.5N  39.3W   19.2N  41.7W
BAMM    17.0N  34.2W   17.8N  37.1W   18.7N  40.0W   19.4N  43.1W
LBAR    17.0N  34.2W   17.9N  37.4W   18.8N  40.7W   19.4N  43.9W
SHIP        45KTS          53KTS          62KTS          71KTS
DSHP        45KTS          53KTS          62KTS          71KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100913  0000   100914  0000   100915  0000   100916  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.7N  45.9W   23.1N  53.7W   22.8N  60.7W   19.5N  65.8W
BAMD    20.0N  43.9W   21.5N  48.1W   23.0N  52.8W   24.6N  57.8W
BAMM    20.0N  46.3W   19.8N  52.6W   18.0N  57.3W   17.0N  57.0W
LBAR    20.2N  46.9W   21.3N  51.9W   19.4N  54.8W   19.7N  57.9W
SHIP        80KTS          92KTS          92KTS          93KTS
DSHP        80KTS          92KTS          92KTS          93KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.0N LONCUR =  34.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  16.3N LONM12 =  30.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  15.3N LONM24 =  27.4W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  40NM