ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Flash-off of both Gaston moisture and 92L. See if d-max brings it back.

[Vortex]

This is an excellent sat loop which clearly shows the center towards the end at 315z...



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[ROCK]

This is an excellent sat loop which clearly shows the center towards the end at 315z...



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

11N and 59W is where I am eyeballing it......

[Vortex]

Circulation showing up very well on martinque radar now






http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[South Texas Storms]

why did this lose so much model support since the 12z runs today?

[Vortex]

00z canadian rolling in has system just north of PR at H+84. Identical to the NAM...

[Ivanhater]

Canadian is much stronger but gets completely picked up

[Wx_Warrior]

Ive,

CMC was suggesting that near the end of the 12z.

[canes101]

Animation Location - http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Vorticity strengthening...convection firing over the strongest vorticity as well. Looking alot better of a situation tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

im not buying the cmc right now.
heck i dont even know if this will develop into anything anymore. this morning i thought it was a for sure developer but not anymore.

[Vortex]

looking good on radar....circulation very evident and banding developing...

[Vortex]

While the cmc is possible I think its a bit to radical.....I don't say this often but i think the Nam at this point looks best...It's been very consistent and the track makes complete sense......

[ROCK]

well to me it doesnt look like its pulling up any....just moving slowly westward if I eyeballed the center correctly...south convection flare up on the south side of the circulation....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

weak steering attm....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[ROCK]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

so you are telling me there is a chance....

[Wx_Warrior]

ROFL.....Homerun ROCK...BRAVO!!!!

[ROCK]

Dumb and Dumber is a cult classic...

back on topic....

[Aric Dunn]

Very nice banding starting to develop...I see a lot of curvature and convection building.. clear evidence of a surface circ developing... should see something begin to take shape in the next 24 to 36 hours.. maybe sooner..

[ColinDelia]

Yeah Aric, Agreed. Of course I slept through the poofage last night (for once!)