ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Is this going to be another Gaston where we get upgrades, then downgrades, then upgrades?

The models didn't do anything with Gaston but they show a large and powerful hurricane with Igor. I doubt Igor degenerates further especially since the environment will become much more favorable in a day or so.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting HPC discussion...

12Z/09 DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THESE WRN
NOAM DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 THAT HAD BEGUN TO SHOW UP IN THEIR
00Z RUNS. THE NEW CANADIAN SEEMS TO LOWER HEIGHTS TOO QUICKLY OVER
THE WRN CONUS BY DAY 6. THE NEW 12Z GFS/CANADIAN BRING
SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES INTO THE W COAST STATES MON AND
WED. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE NEW 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A SOMEWHAT
RETROGRESSIVE LOOK TO IT DAYS 6-7 AS IT AMPLIFIES A STRONG SYS
NEAR 45N/145W. IN THIS REGARD...IT IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z/09
RUN AND FINDS SUPPORT EVEN FROM THE OTHERWISE ERRATIC CANADIAN
MODEL.

A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE WIND? PERHAPS. A DEVELOPING DOMINANT
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 45M/145W SUPPORTS A WRN NOAM RIDGE
AND TROF ALONG 80W. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE
CORRESPONDING GFS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE ERN PACIFIC TROF DAYS
6-7. THAT BEING SAID..THE NEW ECMWF HAS MUDDIED THE WATERS FARTHER
E...KEEPING MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE E COAST STATES DAYS 5-7.
IT SEEMS TO BE GOING TO THE OPPOSITE EXTREME OF THE 00Z GFS. IT IS
IN OPPOSITION TO TELECONNECTIONS ON THE ERN PACIFIC TROF. FOR NOW
WE REJECT THE NEW ECMWF OVER THE ERN CONUS DAYS 5-7. WE FAVOR OF
KEEPING SOME KIND OF BROAD NOT TOO DEEP TROF OVER THE NERN CONUS
DAYS 5-7. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING AS MUCH TROF OVER THE E
COAST STATES DAYS 6-7 AS ITS 00Z RUN AND HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS
THE 00Z/09 CORRESPONDING ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OUR FINAL
GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH OUR A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/09
GEFS AND ECENS MEANS FOR THE WHOLE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE COMPARATIVELY QUIET ...WITH MOST OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE DAY 3-4 TIME FRAME ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST REGIONS. BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK ...WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW HURCN IGOR MIGHT AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OR GULF COAST
REGIONS. STAY TUNED.

[hurricaneCW]

So exactly what does the discussion indicate. Less western Atlantic troughing?

[CrazyC83]

What role could 92L play in all of this, especially if that becomes the monster we suspect it might?

[Migle]

Look at the convection that Igor has now o__o

Looks like a TS at least for sure now.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthFLTropics]

Talk about a good blow up of cold tops...The monster may be rearing it's ugly head...

IT'S ALIVE...

Sorry, I couldn't help the Frankenstein reference...

SFT

[alienstorm]

Can anyone say center relocation

[hurricaneCW]

The center would be all the way on the east side of the convective burst but given that it's a developing storm, we could see a center relocation.

[cycloneye]

Judging by the appeareance, it has to be a tropical storm again at 11 PM. Also,expect the floater very soon.

[hurricaneCW]

Don't think dry air will be too much of a problem with this one, it already has a nice moisture envelope around it. The huge convective blowup also is a tell tale sign that once the shear decrease, Igor will go bonkers.

[Tstormwatcher]

Interesting HPC discussion...

12Z/09 DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THESE WRN
NOAM DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 THAT HAD BEGUN TO SHOW UP IN THEIR
00Z RUNS. THE NEW CANADIAN SEEMS TO LOWER HEIGHTS TOO QUICKLY OVER
THE WRN CONUS BY DAY 6. THE NEW 12Z GFS/CANADIAN BRING
SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES INTO THE W COAST STATES MON AND
WED. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE NEW 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A SOMEWHAT
RETROGRESSIVE LOOK TO IT DAYS 6-7 AS IT AMPLIFIES A STRONG SYS
NEAR 45N/145W. IN THIS REGARD...IT IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z/09
RUN AND FINDS SUPPORT EVEN FROM THE OTHERWISE ERRATIC CANADIAN
MODEL.

A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE WIND? PERHAPS. A DEVELOPING DOMINANT
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 45M/145W SUPPORTS A WRN NOAM RIDGE
AND TROF ALONG 80W. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE
CORRESPONDING GFS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE ERN PACIFIC TROF DAYS
6-7. THAT BEING SAID..THE NEW ECMWF HAS MUDDIED THE WATERS FARTHER
E...KEEPING MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE E COAST STATES DAYS 5-7.
IT SEEMS TO BE GOING TO THE OPPOSITE EXTREME OF THE 00Z GFS. IT IS
IN OPPOSITION TO TELECONNECTIONS ON THE ERN PACIFIC TROF. FOR NOW
WE REJECT THE NEW ECMWF OVER THE ERN CONUS DAYS 5-7. WE FAVOR OF
KEEPING SOME KIND OF BROAD NOT TOO DEEP TROF OVER THE NERN CONUS
DAYS 5-7. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING AS MUCH TROF OVER THE E
COAST STATES DAYS 6-7 AS ITS 00Z RUN AND HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS
THE 00Z/09 CORRESPONDING ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OUR FINAL
GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH OUR A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/09
GEFS AND ECENS MEANS FOR THE WHOLE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE COMPARATIVELY QUIET ...WITH MOST OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE DAY 3-4 TIME FRAME ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST REGIONS. BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK ...WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW HURCN IGOR MIGHT AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OR GULF COAST
REGIONS. STAY TUNED.

Ivan or someone else, could you kinda explain that in plain english for us amatuers. Thanks

[jlauderdal]

Interesting HPC discussion...

12Z/09 DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OF THESE WRN
NOAM DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 THAT HAD BEGUN TO SHOW UP IN THEIR
00Z RUNS. THE NEW CANADIAN SEEMS TO LOWER HEIGHTS TOO QUICKLY OVER
THE WRN CONUS BY DAY 6. THE NEW 12Z GFS/CANADIAN BRING
SUCCESSIVELY STRONGER SHORTWAVES INTO THE W COAST STATES MON AND
WED. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE NEW 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A SOMEWHAT
RETROGRESSIVE LOOK TO IT DAYS 6-7 AS IT AMPLIFIES A STRONG SYS
NEAR 45N/145W. IN THIS REGARD...IT IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z/09
RUN AND FINDS SUPPORT EVEN FROM THE OTHERWISE ERRATIC CANADIAN
MODEL.

A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE WIND? PERHAPS. A DEVELOPING DOMINANT
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 45M/145W SUPPORTS A WRN NOAM RIDGE
AND TROF ALONG 80W. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE
CORRESPONDING GFS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE ERN PACIFIC TROF DAYS
6-7. THAT BEING SAID..THE NEW ECMWF HAS MUDDIED THE WATERS FARTHER
E...KEEPING MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE E COAST STATES DAYS 5-7.
IT SEEMS TO BE GOING TO THE OPPOSITE EXTREME OF THE 00Z GFS. IT IS
IN OPPOSITION TO TELECONNECTIONS ON THE ERN PACIFIC TROF. FOR NOW
WE REJECT THE NEW ECMWF OVER THE ERN CONUS DAYS 5-7. WE FAVOR OF
KEEPING SOME KIND OF BROAD NOT TOO DEEP TROF OVER THE NERN CONUS
DAYS 5-7. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING AS MUCH TROF OVER THE E
COAST STATES DAYS 6-7 AS ITS 00Z RUN AND HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS
THE 00Z/09 CORRESPONDING ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. OUR FINAL
GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH OUR A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/09
GEFS AND ECENS MEANS FOR THE WHOLE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE COMPARATIVELY QUIET ...WITH MOST OF IT
OCCURRING IN THE DAY 3-4 TIME FRAME ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST REGIONS. BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK ...WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW HURCN IGOR MIGHT AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OR GULF COAST
REGIONS. STAY TUNED.

Ivan or someone else, could you kinda explain that in plain english for us amatuers. Thanks

they see less troughinesss thus more of a chance for it to move west but moving west doesn't mean a strike on the United States as far as that discussion is concerned at this time

[KWT]

Big ole blow up of convection there thats for sure...this is pretty far north this far east to be a threat down the line esp if this does strengthen.

If the NHC track is anywhere near the mark its going to be hard still for this one to get close to the states, esp as by then we'll be in mid September and troughing becomes that bit stronger which makes it even tougher.

That being said just a few hints from the models that upper ridging will try to develop back, SE Canada IMO probably need to watch closely.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 11, 2010090918, , BEST, 0, 145N, 263W, 35, 1004, TD

35 knots and TD doesn't make sense!

[HURAKAN]

AL, 11, 2010091000, , BEST, 0, 152N, 273W, 30, 1004, TD

remains a TD at 00z

[CrazyC83]

I'd hold off bumping it back up for a bit though. It might just be DMAX producing the deep convection.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, the 92L and Igor threads seem pretty dead over the last several hours....

[SouthFLTropics]

Let me get this straight...lowly looking Fiona was still classed at a TS when she looked her worst but Igor is still being shown as a TD. I know appearances can be deceiving but I think Igor isn't getting a fair shake. Is the NHC trying to tick him off or something...

SFT

[weatherSnoop]

Wow, the 92L and Igor threads seem pretty dead over the last several hours....

Saints are on!!!!!!!