ATL: IGOR - Models

[Weatherfreak000]

It seems almost assured this season anything forming in the East Atlantic will recurve.

[BigB0882]

Why are the BAM models showing this taking such a southern dive, it appears no other models see this unless I am missing something. It seems the BAM models also call this for 92L. What is going on there? Makes me quick to throw them out unless someone can explain what they are seeing.

[sandyb]

Why are the BAM models showing this taking such a southern dive, it appears no other models see this unless I am missing something. It seems the BAM models also call this for 92L. What is going on there? Makes me quick to throw them out unless someone can explain what they are seeing.

the system behind is gonna make it go a little south

[jlauderdal]

It seems almost assured this season anything forming in the East Atlantic will recurve.

its getting late too so making it across becomes less likely, need something west of 50 to develop

[Scorpion]

Heh, that would be some nice waves for the East Coast if the Euro was correct.

[ColinDelia]

12z Euro. Does that say 905 mb? I think my vision is still blurry from the 90s.

[Scorpion]

Yea.. must be some kinda resolution issue. Still impressive, maybe Bermuda gets hit this time.

[Scorpion]

Hmmm...

[hurricaneCW]

The size is pretty spectacular on the Euro, that looks like a Pacific super typhoon. Bermuda may have to look out for this one, we'll see.

[Scorpion]

That would be an epic hit on New England

[Hurricaneman]

for me that would be too much to handle, but that is still 10 days away

[Scorpion]

Safe to say this will be a pretty hyperactive season if the Euro is correct, thats 2 more majors plus 92L has alot of potential to be one as well. 5 majors before October in a La Nina

[ColinDelia]

Why are the BAM models showing this taking such a southern dive, it appears no other models see this unless I am missing something. It seems the BAM models also call this for 92L. What is going on there? Makes me quick to throw them out unless someone can explain what they are seeing.

The BAMS are trajectory models. They don't have the same sophistication as the global models as far as the interaction with the atmosphere. I think the BAM gets the flow from the GFS output and them moves a TC along three different tracks with an adjustment for the coriolis effect.

BAMD = BAM-Deep for the strongest cyclones
BAMM = BAM-Medium
BAMS = BAM-SHallow

The BAMM average 5 day error last year was 367 nautical miles. Compare that to 240 n. miles for the GFSI or 217 for the ECMWF.

[hurricaneCW]

We'll probably get that super high ACE although to the public it would be considered generally a quiet season if the forecasts were correct. Basically, as of right now, the models show 92L becoming a storm, the wave after Igor becoming a storm, and maybe the wave after that one becoming a storm. So we could be talking about 4 systems, at least 3 at once in this month plus Gaston and Hermine. At least 3 if not all of them could be hurricanes, and at least 2 of them could be majors. Based on the models, Igor looks like a shoe-in major once it exits the current unfavorable environment.

I don't know what will happen with 92L, I think it'll at least become a tropical storm, maybe a hurricane. The Euro and the gfs strongly develop the wave after Igor, so that will probably become another hurricane, possibly another major cane. I think the ACE could easily exceed 120-130 this month if all goes according to the models.

[x-y-no]

18z GFS is left of the previous runs out to 114 hours.

[x-y-no]

12z GFS out to 138 hours, looks like it'll cross 20N at about 57W. That would still be comfortably away from the islands, but trend is in their direction.

[x-y-no]

12z GFS - 156 hours strengthening Igor at 20N 58W. Big deep-level weakness to the north.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS - 156 hours strengthening Igor at 20N 58W. Big deep-level weakness to the north.

That weakness has been there just about all season.

[Steve H.]

Like the forecasters have been saying, the tropics are now in full swing. Don't like the trend on the Models right now with the Atlantic systems they develop. They are trending left. I don't say recurve yet. Not for the islands or North America.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm,.... the trough is very flat at 172 hours.. ridge looks like its building back in..