ATL: IGOR - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

It's not over yet though, it's way to early to say that we've lucked out.

That's why I said "so far"

[hurricaneCW]

I was just making a broad statement because many people feel that we will come out of this season without a scratch. In all honesty, we have no idea what could happen within the next 2-4 weeks. For all we know, we could be talking about a catastrophic hurricane that cost billions and killed dozens or even hundreds of people. I strongly hope that's not the case but I'm sure that in 1992, 1-2 weeks before Andrew hit, that people probably thought they would be spared that season. After all, 1992 was a very quiet season. The same goes with other destructive hurricanes, especially years where everything seems calm.

I hope the shield stays up and we're spared but this is the kind of season where anything is possible.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess we will have to see how Igor develops. How fast it develops will play a big role in its eventual track.

[ColinDelia]

I was just making a broad statement because many people feel that we will come out of this season without a scratch.

Alex killed over 30 people and caused nearly $2 billion in damage. Earl killed 2 and added a few hundred million more in damage. Hermine killed a few in Texas. I might have missed some. Of course, you mean CONUS but even there Hermine caused some damage and deaths in the CONUS through flooding.

[gatorcane]

Models are screaming recurve yet again which seems the best forecast at this point.

Not the year for Cape Verde Systems getting to the U.S it seems or even Cape Verde systems making into the Caribbean for that matter. We will need to watch the WCAR later in the season or some systems that get going in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas.

Which models would that be? Have you looked at the Euro? I'll post it

Trapped under the ridge that is building on top. Could it change? sure, but models screaming recurve? Nope

What run are you looking at? You can clearly see a persistent trough hanging along the Eastern Seaboard for just about the entire run out through 240 hours. There is a day or so where the trough eases up some, then another deeper trough digs down about 10 days from now. I grant you it is far out there and things can change but we seem to be stuck in a pattern of 500MB troughiness in the Western Atlantic with no sign of a pattern change.

[gatorcane]

A large trough awaits Igor. With this type of setup, it can't get that far west. That's about 150 hours out, so not unrealistic that is what Igor will find:

[Ivanhater]

Models are screaming recurve yet again which seems the best forecast at this point.

Not the year for Cape Verde Systems getting to the U.S it seems or even Cape Verde systems making into the Caribbean for that matter. We will need to watch the WCAR later in the season or some systems that get going in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas.

Which models would that be? Have you looked at the Euro? I'll post it

Trapped under the ridge that is building on top. Could it change? sure, but models screaming recurve? Nope

What run are you looking at? You can clearly see a persistent trough hanging along the Eastern Seaboard for just about the entire run out through 240 hours. There is a day or so where the trough eases up some, then another deeper trough digs down about 10 days from now. I grant you it is far out there and things can change but we seem to be stuck in a pattern of 500MB troughiness in the Western Atlantic with no sign of a pattern change.

The 00z Euro. If you take the time to go back and look at the run, you see the Ridge building over Igor pushing him westward. There is no trough waiting to pick Igor up on that run, just more ridging building on top. This post was in response to your "models screaming recurve" post from this morning that was simply untrue, whether or not this does indeed recurve later.

[KWT]

I'd suspect if you were taking the 00z ECM for what it was, you'd be looking at the NW track keeping up, so it'd probably suggest something like maybe Bill from last year...its far enough out if that were to happen that it'd a threat...

However the models now latching onto a strong system earlier which means in all likelyhood it will catch the upper trough as Gatorcane has been suggesting, no way a cat 1/2 misses the weakness progged by the models...now a weaker TS would be a different story...esp if it tracked south of forecasted.

[Ptarmigan]

The model updates are here. http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

The graphics of the models are here. http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... plots.html

The ATCF site for Best Track is here. ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Thanks. It is now Igor. It could be a big one.

[Ptarmigan]

WX warrior...looks like Igor and Julian are going to crash into each other....I hope they have insurance...

Really good insurance. More like Lloyd's of London.

[hurricaneCW]

The troughing depicted by the gfs is like fort knox security. The entire run represents exactly what this season is about right now, it shows systems around the Yucatan than head into Mexico, just south of the U.S. border and than recurves all Cape Verde systems. This is not to say that things will stay the same, but the gfs gives a strong representation of what we've seen so far.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 090056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC THU SEP 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100909 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100909  0000   100909  1200   100910  0000   100910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  24.3W   14.2N  25.5W   15.1N  27.2W   16.5N  29.5W
BAMD    13.8N  24.3W   14.2N  26.5W   14.7N  28.7W   15.6N  31.0W
BAMM    13.8N  24.3W   14.5N  25.8W   15.6N  27.7W   17.0N  30.2W
LBAR    13.8N  24.3W   14.2N  26.1W   15.2N  28.7W   16.1N  31.5W
SHIP        40KTS          44KTS          49KTS          57KTS
DSHP        40KTS          44KTS          49KTS          57KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100911  0000   100912  0000   100913  0000   100914  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  32.3W   20.7N  39.0W   22.3N  46.5W   20.5N  52.5W
BAMD    16.4N  33.5W   18.5N  38.7W   21.1N  42.8W   23.9N  46.1W
BAMM    18.2N  33.3W   20.2N  39.9W   21.2N  46.1W   20.3N  50.2W
LBAR    17.0N  34.5W   18.5N  41.2W   19.4N  46.0W   20.7N  48.6W
SHIP        63KTS          77KTS          85KTS          89KTS
DSHP        63KTS          77KTS          85KTS          89KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.8N LONCUR =  24.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 =  23.3W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  21.9W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  30NM


[BensonTCwatcher]

We'll just go back in a week or so and what happens. I am sticking with 60/40 favoring a recurve. Wxman may be in the 50/50 camp. runs are not screaming anything really deterministic. they never do. 2 days from now we should see enough of a trend showing up. in this game we just sat down with a bag of popcorn, 8 innings to play still

[FogbowBlue]

It seems like most storms this season either went to Mexico or recurved. With Igor and PAST HISTORY as I posted, and the models seem to follow... it would seem
Igor will follow history and recurve. So, not gonna worry ...yet

I like to think Texas has given to the cause this season and it's over...I hope

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 144hrs

[Wx_Warrior]

[KWT]

Yeah pattern has been very stubborn this year just like some of us expected it'd be once it became clear it weren't shifting out of the way.

Models look like taking a track somewhat similar to Danielle but starting off with a slower motion and further east.

[USTropics]

Although not a certainty, pretty good model agreement on the 00z runs of the trough picking this one up. If the model runs verify, this will potentially be the third major to recurve, making those of us living on the east coast extremely fortunate so far. A little bit OT, but the models continue to develop the wave behind Igor as well, and it appears (according to the long range GFS, which I understand is unreliable) to stall out in the central Atlantic after Igor moves out until the next trough comes through and also lifts it north. As stated above, this is all 240-300 hours out and we'll have to watch how things evolve, but the models this year have been pretty good at sniffing these troughs out. One last note, the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at development in the western Caribbean/GOM in 6-7 days, and with all these troughs digging down, this could be the area where we see a U.S. threat.

[barometerJane61]

I was just making a broad statement because many people feel that we will come out of this season without a scratch. In all honesty, we have no idea what could happen within the next 2-4 weeks. For all we know, we could be talking about a catastrophic hurricane that cost billions and killed dozens or even hundreds of people. I strongly hope that's not the case but I'm sure that in 1992, 1-2 weeks before Andrew hit, that people probably thought they would be spared that season. After all, 1992 was a very quiet season. The same goes with other destructive hurricanes, especially years where everything seems calm.

I hope the shield stays up and we're spared but this is the kind of season where anything is possible.

Many people tend to focus on hurricanes as being the most deadly.Already Hermine's remnents have casued alot of damage throughout Texas. Two people died,many had to be rescued from flooded homes just around the Dallas/Arlington/Ft.Worth area.A couple of tornadoes were spawned late yesterday and did damage around Dallas

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows another recurve this time....and the systems behind it should recurve as well with this pattern....