ATL: KARL - Models
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- cycloneye
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ATL: KARL - Models
All models here. First plots by BAMS shortly.
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00Z Canadian Southern Bahamas then west across Cuba
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif
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The CMC looks like a real strange solution, it lifts up real quickly then shoots it near due west. The broad pattern is the same as the GFS/ECM but its gains way more latitude in the early part of the run then those two models.
Interestingly Gustav got going in a region close to where 92L is right now as well, tracked WNW and then developed around 65W.
Interestingly Gustav got going in a region close to where 92L is right now as well, tracked WNW and then developed around 65W.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
The NAM solution would completely change the dynamics of what we could be dealing with. Actually if the NAM is right, then this disturbance would probably go out to sea after coming near Puerto Rico.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
First Tropical Model plots
Wow!! SHIP goes bunkers.
Wow!! SHIP goes bunkers.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 091230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC THU SEP 9 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100909 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100909 1200 100910 0000 100910 1200 100911 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 60.4W 12.4N 60.8W 12.5N 61.5W 12.8N 62.5W
BAMD 12.2N 60.4W 12.3N 61.2W 12.6N 62.5W 13.0N 64.2W
BAMM 12.2N 60.4W 12.3N 61.0W 12.3N 62.0W 12.5N 63.4W
LBAR 12.2N 60.4W 12.5N 61.2W 13.0N 62.5W 13.7N 64.0W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100911 1200 100912 1200 100913 1200 100914 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 63.7W 13.8N 66.9W 14.9N 70.4W 16.8N 74.1W
BAMD 13.4N 66.2W 13.9N 71.2W 14.0N 76.5W 13.6N 81.6W
BAMM 12.7N 65.1W 13.2N 68.9W 13.7N 72.7W 14.8N 76.3W
LBAR 14.4N 66.0W 16.2N 70.8W 17.7N 75.8W 19.2N 79.8W
SHIP 58KTS 76KTS 88KTS 101KTS
DSHP 58KTS 76KTS 88KTS 101KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 60.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re:
Scorpion wrote:When is the NAM ever right?? It is a completely worthless tropical model.
It sniffed out Hermine.
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Yeah to be fair to the NAM it did do a decent job with Hermine.
Those SHIPS sure look pretty worrying, they show a decent set-up aloft which is confirmed by the global models though they don't really get this going till the W.Caribbean.
The NAM/CMC solutions aren't that unrealistic by the way, but I do think those two models are a little on the northern side of whats likely.
Those SHIPS sure look pretty worrying, they show a decent set-up aloft which is confirmed by the global models though they don't really get this going till the W.Caribbean.
The NAM/CMC solutions aren't that unrealistic by the way, but I do think those two models are a little on the northern side of whats likely.
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SHIPS-LGEM model intensity forecast is slightly under the regular SHIPS model but still takes it to 94 knots at five days:
The forecast shear to be highest in around 4-5 days:
And sea-surface temps consistent over 29°C (84°F) all the way:
Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 34 46 58 68 76 82 88 94 101
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 34 46 58 68 76 82 88 94 101
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 49 59 71 81 89 94
The forecast shear to be highest in around 4-5 days:
Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 12 11 14 15 19 16 19 16 22 15
And sea-surface temps consistent over 29°C (84°F) all the way:
Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2
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Oh, and I missed out the SHIPS rapid intensification index - we could be looking at a fast developer...
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
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Yeah though its going to have to get itself going yet before any sort of decent development is likely to occur.
LGEM looks more realistic in terms of how long it takes to get going but once it gets going it shows decent conditions aloft thats for sure.
LGEM looks more realistic in terms of how long it takes to get going but once it gets going it shows decent conditions aloft thats for sure.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
12z NAM at 48 hours.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
12z NAM at 60 hours.
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Looks like its a little weaker on the 12z run so far...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
72 hours.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
The 12z NAM ends with a possible landfall in Puerto Rico,but a little weaker than the past runs.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Take a very close look at the model plots cycloneye posted, in particular the BAM runs. Note the 120-hr positions on the text output and then compare those 120hr points to the map below. I noticed this just today. The BAM models are now being run out to 168 hrs (7 days). The extra 2 days appear on the model plots but not in the text output.
I know that the NHC is experimenting with a 7-day forecast track internally this year (and for the next few years). I'll bet they are running the models out to 7 days to assist them in their internal 7-day tracks. No sign of the GFDL/HWRF being run 7 days yet, though.
I know that the NHC is experimenting with a 7-day forecast track internally this year (and for the next few years). I'll bet they are running the models out to 7 days to assist them in their internal 7-day tracks. No sign of the GFDL/HWRF being run 7 days yet, though.
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