ATL: IGOR - Models

[alan1961]

Regardless of track the models are all keen on this becoming quite a powerful hurricane, and if it does become strong its going to be very unlikely it avoids the weakness out at 60W...

I prefer the "R" word kw...sounds so much better than the "weakness"

[thetruesms]

In general, the "synoptic" runs, initialized at 00 and 12 UTC, are more accurate than their 06Z and 18Z counterparts because they contain more upper-air sounding observations in the initial conditions. By convention, these are launched twice a day all over the world near 00 and 12 UTC. Contrary to popular belief, though, the 6Z and 18Z runs still contain plenty of data, including upper air data (satellite derived observations, aircraft obs, etc.), just not the usual upper air balloon soundings.

IIRC, there are studies that show that the the 0Z and 12Z runs are overall the best, but I don't know any off the top of my head; I could go look them up.

Can we just go ahead and have this reposted in every model thread from here on out? I'm fairly certain every one in the past has contained the misconception that the 6Z and 18Z periods are just reruns with nothing new added.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 081402
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC WED SEP 8 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100908 1200 100909 0000 100909 1200 100910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 23.3W 13.6N 24.8W 13.4N 26.5W 13.6N 28.3W
BAMD 13.7N 23.3W 13.8N 25.8W 13.7N 28.4W 13.7N 30.8W
BAMM 13.7N 23.3W 13.8N 25.0W 14.0N 26.9W 14.5N 28.9W
LBAR 13.7N 23.3W 14.0N 25.1W 14.5N 27.7W 15.4N 30.7W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100910 1200 100911 1200 100912 1200 100913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 30.0W 17.7N 33.8W 20.4N 38.4W 22.7N 44.0W
BAMD 13.9N 33.2W 14.3N 37.6W 15.5N 41.3W 17.1N 43.6W
BAMM 15.4N 30.9W 17.4N 35.8W 18.9N 41.2W 19.5N 46.0W
LBAR 16.2N 34.1W 17.3N 40.7W 17.2N 45.5W 18.2N 45.8W
SHIP 59KTS 70KTS 72KTS 73KTS
DSHP 59KTS 70KTS 72KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 23.3W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 21.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 20.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 30NM

[/b]

[pepeavilenho]

Is it a tropical storm?

[HURAKAN]

Is it a tropical storm?

yes

[AussieMark]

where is the wave that develops future Julia is that still over Africia?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Regardless of track the models are all keen on this becoming quite a powerful hurricane, and if it does become strong its going to be very unlikely it avoids the weakness out at 60W...

I think it would be the opposite i.e. generally a stronger storm will move poleward in the absence of steering. There is a lot of variance as to how much ridging there will be at 60W this far out. 2 big factors or features that look highly likely to be in place at 60W are the sub-tropical ridge, which to me does not look like it will be strong enough in and of itself to prevent a recurve, rather the additional high pressure over the eastern US and the weakness over the NE US that could either be there or or affected by the larger low over the GL area rolling to the SW. The net effect would be the weakness pulling out and the ridge builds back strong enough to trap the system. The other thing coming into play is A possible juliet far enough behind to enhance the ridge. Going to be interesting (they all are really) to see how this develops. I don't really want to think about a 140+ kt hurricane named Igor trapped under a strong ridge at 60W and beyond....and for now I don't have to

[CrazyC83]

If this doesn't recurve, the islands could be in SERIOUS danger here.

[ConvergenceZone]

hopefully some of the long term model runs will post soon...

[Comanche]

Anyone going to post the 12z gfs?

[SFLcane]

[ColinDelia]

12z GFS. 144 hours

[ColinDelia]

156 hours

[caneseddy]

Anyone going to post the 12z gfs?

I don't have the ability to post images here at work but I can give you a quick summary of what Igor does

At 180 hours, looks like GFS curves it east of the islands right at 55 degress longitude

[BigB0882]

I'm thinking this could be a recurve but enough reliable models are showing otherwise. GFS has done quite well this year so it has my attention. I'm very curious about the two BAM models which show a turn back to the W and eventually a big dip back SW. That kind of track is really scary as it gives it more time over water to strengthen as opposed to taking a faster track to wherever it will strike first.

[ColinDelia]

180 hours

[ROCK]

hes curving out at 50-55W...on this run....

[SFLcane]

hes curving out at 50-55W...on this run....

What else is new... everything recurves this season especially something forming that far east.

[Riptide]

hes curving out at 50-55W...on this run....

That isn't exactly the most reliable weakness. I'd watch out.

[ColinDelia]