ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch issued for S TX...

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 645
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     800 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
     
     TORNADO WATCH 645 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-
     489-071000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0645.100907T0100Z-100907T1000Z/
     
     TX
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ARANSAS              BEE                 BROOKS             
     CALHOUN              CAMERON             GOLIAD             
     HIDALGO              JIM WELLS           KENEDY             
     KLEBERG              LIVE OAK            NUECES             
     REFUGIO              SAN PATRICIO        VICTORIA           
     WILLACY             
     


[CrazyC83]

Based on the last Recon data and trends, 60 kt would be my guess for the intensity.

[jasons2k]

Shows the tornado watch:

[Tstormwatcher]

Latest radar out of Brownsville looks like it coming onshore south of brownsville.

[Wx_Warrior]

Nailed by several models, pro mets & NHC while others thought otherwise.

[fasterdisaster]

Nailed by several models, pro mets & NHC while others thought otherwise.

Mmm, I'd have to disagree. Most of the models consistently called this to come in much farther south than it is. Even the NHC was a bit too far south in their first few forecasts. The pro mets on this forum did however for the most part foresee a NNW motion.

[supercane]

8PM CDT obs:
TXZ248>255-070200-
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE RAIN 79 75 89 E16G25 29.69R FOG
PORT ISABEL CLOUDY 82 78 88 E15G26 29.71F HX 91
*SOUTH PADRE N/A 81 77 89 NE17G28 29.69F
HARLINGEN RAIN 78 76 93 NE9 29.70F
*HEBBRONVILLE CLOUDY 83 71 67 E15G21 29.80R
MCALLEN CLOUDY 82 75 79 NE17G24 29.72S
*WESLACO DRIZZLE 80 77 92 NE12 29.71F
FALFURRIAS CLOUDY 83 76 79 E10G16 29.77R HX 91
EDINBURG LGT RAIN 82 77 86 NE13G18 29.74S
*ZAPATA CLOUDY 79 74 84 E5 29.76R

[amawea]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

The menu tonight fasterdisaster is crow.

[tolakram]

40 frame saved radar loop. Making landfall.

[lester]

making landfall:

[fasterdisaster]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

The menu tonight fasterdisaster is crow.

I changed my mind on that same page. I was looking in the wrong area for an LLC.

[supercane]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010


...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Air Force Met]

Nailed by several models, pro mets & NHC while others thought otherwise.

Mmm, I'd have to disagree. Most of the models consistently called this to come in much farther south than it is. Even the NHC was a bit too far south in their first few forecasts. The pro mets on this forum did however for the most part foresee a NNW motion.

Not so sure about that. The models were a victim of bad initialization early on. The center was placed way to close to the coast and thus...they put it inland into central Mexico on the runs. However...the runs from today all had it going north of 25. It's going inland at 25.3

It was only the 1st NHC forecast that was too far south. That one had it coming inland at 24N. The next one was right on the money...then they moved it too far north...and at 4 they settled back to within 12 miles of where it is coming inland.

I'll be the first to admit it is coming inland a little north of where I though it would this morning (20 miles of my northern most point). That's what a freaky wobble to the north and then NNE will do...but...overall...not a bad forecast.

[CrazyC83]

Due to the well-defined eyewall, I would have at least brought it up to 60 kt at landfall, with some thought of 65 kt. My guess for the landfall pressure is 989mb.

[Migle]

Nailed by several models, pro mets & NHC while others thought otherwise.

Mmm, I'd have to disagree. Most of the models consistently called this to come in much farther south than it is. Even the NHC was a bit too far south in their first few forecasts. The pro mets on this forum did however for the most part foresee a NNW motion.

Not so sure about that. The models were a victim of bad initialization early on. The center was placed way to close to the coast and thus...they put it inland into central Mexico on the runs. However...the runs from today all had it going north of 25. It's going inland at 25.3

It was only the 1st NHC forecast that was too far south. That one had it coming inland at 24N. The next one was right on the money...then they moved it too far north...and at 4 they settled back to within 12 miles of where it is coming inland.

I'll be the first to admit it is coming inland a little north of where I though it would this morning (20 miles of my northern most point). That's what a freaky wobble to the north and then NNE will do...but...overall...not a bad forecast.

I think the models did a real good job here. The NHC nailed it with there track and AFM did good as well. Wxman57 said landfall north of Brownsville and as a Hurricane, which did not happen. So overall, I think the models and most of the mets did a good job on a system that snuck up on us

[supercane]

9PM CDT obs showing winds slowly picking up:
TXZ248>255-070300-
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE RAIN 81 75 83 E22G31 29.68S FOG
PORT ISABEL LGT RAIN 81 77 88 E8G22 29.71S
*SOUTH PADRE N/A 81 79 94 E29G36 29.69F
HARLINGEN RAIN 79 75 89 E23G30 29.72R FOG
*HEBBRONVILLE CLOUDY 81 73 75 E13G20 29.80S
MCALLEN CLOUDY 81 76 84 NE12G21 29.73R
*WESLACO RAIN 79 77 92 NE14G20 29.73R
FALFURRIAS CLOUDY 81 76 86 NE8G16 29.77R
EDINBURG LGT RAIN 80 77 90 NE9 29.74R
*ZAPATA CLOUDY 79 73 82 E9G18 29.76S

[Aric Dunn]

Seems it just was not enough to time to make it to hurricane strength .. still interesting system. would not be surprised if somewhere in brownsville had gust to hurricane force later tonight has the center looks like it may pass over the western half of the city.

[ravyrn]

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BEGIN IN
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

Hey can one of you promets chime in on this question for me please. Tomorrow or Wed I will be driving a '14 Uhaul rental moving from LC to just north of Dallas. I'd rather try to avoid any chance of bad weather as I was already nervous about driving that damned thing. I was gonna cut over to I-45 and head on up. Should that be far enough east to avoid the worst of Hermine's remnants? Or should I consider taking 69 up from Beaumont?

[supercane]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 070233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 97.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA
ALGODONES MEXICO.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 25.5N 97.5W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.1N 98.6W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/0000Z 34.7N 99.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0000Z 39.5N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

BTW, Hermine underwent rapid intensification with a gain in intensity of 25kt in 24 hours. Best track below:
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 200N, 955W, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 207N, 950W, 30, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 20, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, S,
AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 218N, 951W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE, M,
AL, 10, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 230N, 956W, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 30, 1008, 180, 40, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE, M, 12, NEQ, 60, 30, 0, 0
AL, 10, 2010090618, , BEST, 0, 241N, 966W, 50, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 20, 50, 1008, 150, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE, D, 12, NEQ, 150, 60, 0, 30
AL, 10, 2010090700, , BEST, 0, 249N, 972W, 55, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 10, 65, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HERMINE, M, 12, NEQ, 150, 90, 30, 45
AL, 10, 2010090702, , BEST, 0, 253N, 974W, 55, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 20, 30,

[South Texas Storms]

when should the rains pick up in earnest in San Antonio?