ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[lrak]

Saved Radar Loop, 40 frames. Looks like it stalled for now.

thanks tolakram

[Aric Dunn]

wow ....this thing spun up in a hurry....good thing it didn't have another day over water.

Aric are u really sure fluid dynamics that you are speaking about is causing this thing to slow down ....near land? any pro-mets chime in on this?

yes for the most part little subtle wobbles are mostly do to a number of things. but much of it is still not understood well though it is modeled or dealt with under computational fluid dynamics. the atmosphere is more complex than a simple experimental model then when you throw land (friction) in the mix things become very complicated. but if you follow all tropical systems you will see them all wobble from weak depressions to cat 5 hurricanes. differences in the pressure field also can cause temporary wobbles. but all are involved with rotational fluid dynamics. Pm me if you want more info on it as i have taken a few classes on it and done some mathematical modeling of logarithmic spirals in fluids ...

[Steve]

Yeah, but system motion looks NW-NNW over time. Seems like there is some momentum for it to continue in that direction - to me anyway. I like the NHC's track at this point. But if it does stall out for a while, watch out for training all the way up the TX coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[CajunMama]

Listening to Rob Perillo, local tv met and he just mentioned the death of a 45 year old Galveston woman due to the riptide caused by Hermine.

[supercane]

Latest vis on Hermine as the sun begins to set:

[ROCK]

Listening to Rob Perillo, local tv met and he just mentioned the death of a 45 year old Galveston woman due to the riptide caused by Hermine.

yes, Jamiaca Beach on the west end of Galveston....was just there visiting parents...surf is incredible. No one should be going out in that...

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, but system motion looks NW-NNW over time. Seems like there is some momentum for it to continue in that direction - to me anyway. I like the NHC's track at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

yeah it should resume a NNW motion soon. in a sense the system must conserve angular momentum although its a little different when you involve fluids.

[Portastorm]

Very sad ... here is the official report:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM RIP CURRENTS JAMAICA BEACH 29.19N 94.98W
09/05/2010 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL *** A 44 YEAR OLD WOMAN DROWNED BECAUSE OF
RIP CURRENTS

[lrak]

Listening to Rob Perillo, local tv met and he just mentioned the death of a 45 year old Galveston woman due to the riptide caused by Hermine.

Next to those jetties without any flowtation and not a good swimmer is "bad news"

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42035

this buoy usually shows 2feet at 3seconds.

[Steve]

Thanks Aric.

One thing I'd like to throw out there is whether this might actually become a wetter storm than what NAM and GFS forecast? I don't know, but looks like Hermine is tapped into and bringing a giant surge of moisture into all of east Texas. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the rainfall prediction rates go up especially if the forward movement is a little slower than the models saw.

[supercane]

Latest area obs:

682
ASUS44 KEWX 062310
RWRTX
SOUTH TEXAS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATED FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY.

* - THESE STATIONS ARE NOT NWS OR FAA STATIONS...AND ARE NOT SUBJECT
TO NWS AND FAA QUALITY CONTROL.

<snip>

TXZ248>255-070000-
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE CLOUDY 81 77 88 NE10 29.71F
PORT ISABEL CLOUDY 80 76 87 NE12 29.72F
*SOUTH PADRE N/A 81 79 94 NE13 29.71F
HARLINGEN RAIN 81 79 94 NE13 29.72F
*HEBBRONVILLE CLOUDY 88 71 56 E17G24 29.76F HX 93
MCALLEN CLOUDY 86 73 65 NE17G23 29.73F HX 93
*WESLACO LGT RAIN 84 75 74 E10G18 29.73S HX 92
FALFURRIAS PTSUNNY 87 74 64 E13 29.75R HX 95
EDINBURG CLOUDY 88 74 63 E15 29.74S HX 96
*ZAPATA RAIN 79 74 85 CALM 29.74R

TXZ213>215-236>238-242>244-246-247-251-254-255-070000-
CMAN STATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME TEMP WIND PRES WAVE
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER
(UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S)
SABINE PASS 2300 84 86 150/ 10/ 15 1014.9
SEA RIM ST PARK 2300 83 140/ 9/ 12 1013.5
GALVESTON PIER 2300 81 84 120/ 22/ 25 N/A
EAGLE POINT 2300 77 81 150/ 17/ 23 1013.4
MORGANS POINT 2300 83 85 120/ 9/ 11 1011.9
MISSION/ARANSAS 2200 83 90/ 12 1009.0
PORT O'CONNOR 2200 85 90/ 13/ 15 N/A
PORT ARANSAS 2300 84 86 70/ 19/ 22 1008.7
MALAQUITE BEACH 2300 83 86 70/ 15/ 17 N/A
BAFFIN BAY 2200 50/ 17/ 18 N/A
PORT ISABEL 2300 78 86 20/ 6/ 7 1006.4


GMZ080-GMZ150>470-070000-
OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS

STATION/POSITION TIME TEMP WIND PRES WAVE
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER
(UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S)
20 E GALVESTON 2300 82 85 160/ 14/ 16 1012.3 5/ 8
35 NE PT MANSFLD 2300 80 85 80/ 14/ 16 1007.3 7/ 8
200 E PT ISABEL 2200 85 VRB 23 N/A

ASCA44 KEWX 062320
RWRMX

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATED FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

<snip>

NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHIHUAHUA MOSUNNY 90 48 24 E15 29.91F
MATAMOROS N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
MONCLOVA PTSUNNY 95 64 36 NE10 29.84S HX 97
MONTERREY PTSUNNY 90 66 45 NE3 29.74S HX 92
NUEVO LAREDO MOSUNNY 88 77 70 NE9 29.74F HX 100
PIEDRAS NEGRAS MOSUNNY 95 68 41 E6 29.74F HX 99
REYNOSA PTSUNNY 88 75 66 NE9G21 29.74R HX 97
SALTILLO MOSUNNY 79 63 57 NE17 29.98F
TORREON MOSUNNY 90 45 20 NE13 29.87F
CD. VICTORIA PTSUNNY 88 70 55 N9 29.74 HX 92

<snip>

[supercane]

Latest VDM shows little change:
000
URNT12 KNHC 062305
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/22:45:20Z
B. 24 deg 41 min N
097 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1347 m
D. 47 kt
E. 146 deg 15 nm
F. 218 deg 43 kt
G. 139 deg 31 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 17 C / 1528 m
J. 21 C / 1522 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0210A HERMINE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 21:22:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT NE QUAD 22:57:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Aric Dunn]

yeah I just calculated a direction of about 342 at like 8mph over the last 2.5 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

im also getting doppler velocity estimates of 56kts in the NE eyewall

[KatDaddy]

Hermine is just like his brother Humberto......close to shore with RI. The most difficult situations for tc preparations . We make many plans based on several days but what if you had 24 hours to prepare for a CAT 3-5? It does occur and Charley was a prime example

[Aric Dunn]

ok well the the center just moved NNE,.. according to recon on this pass.. likely just being pulled to the deeper convection to the east..

[CrazyC83]

High enough to go up to 60 kt given the fact the NW quad has not really been sampled due to proximity to land?

[South Texas Storms]

aric should the nnw movement continue soon?

[Aric Dunn]

aric should the nnw movement continue soon?

yeah it should very soon...

[lrak]

ok well the the center just moved NNE,.. according to recon on this pass.. likely just being pulled to the deeper convection to the east..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... o&loop=yes

this long range radar shows this