ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

recon on the next pass should note a partial Eyewall forming..

[cwachal]

how has recon not found an eyewall yet... it is very apparent on radar

[Migle]

how has recon not found an eyewall yet... it is very apparent on radar

It wasn't really there the last time they past through I am guessing. It has really just started showing.

[South Texas Storms]

does anyone know why it has really slowed down in speed?

[cwachal]

does anyone know why it has really slowed down in speed?

not saying this for 100% surety but usually when a storm stalls it changes direction... the storm has not moved in at least a half hour if not more so lets see what happens

[Aric Dunn]

does anyone know why it has really slowed down in speed?

hehe.. guess no one believes me.. lol

[South Texas Storms]

aric so is it about to move more northerly?

[TexasF6]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a tornado watch go up at any moment....strong cells rotating in off the coast IMO....

[Aric Dunn]

aric so is it about to move more northerly?

well back on its average 6 hour NNW track ....

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a tornado watch go up at any moment....strong cells rotating in off the coast IMO....

there is a mesoscale discussion out for southern texas.

[TexasF6]

Aric she's just sitting there....what are the mechanisms behind this fluidity in storms you are speaking to? Sounds fascinating....

[Portastorm]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062201Z - 062300Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES PRODUCED BY TS HERMINE IS MRGL NOW BUT FCST TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM S-N ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.

TIME SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL VWP HODOGRAPHS AT BRO SHOW STEADY TENDENCY
FOR ENLARGEMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH NOW IN 100-200 J/KG RANGE
DEPENDING ON INPUT CELL MOTION USED. THIS TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL CENTER GETS CLOSER TO ANY GIVEN
POINT...WHEREUPON INCREASING TREND IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
SHOULD BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF. MEANWHILE SIMILAR TREND IN HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER N TOWARD TX COASTAL BEND...BUT DELAYED BY
SEVERAL HOURS IN STEP WITH RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO HERMINE. MOST
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR OVER
MIDDLE-OUTER SECTOR FROM NNW-SE OF CENTER. MLCAPE CURRENTLY IN
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AWAY FROM THICK CLOUDS/HEAVY PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING INLAND...HOWEVER
WEAK CINH AND VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL THETAE SHOULD KEEP EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS SFC-BASED EXCEPT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LARGE PRECIP
CORES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SMALL AREA COVERED BY BEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND AT LEAST MRGL INSTABILITY. GIVEN NHC FCST
TRACK OF CENTER AND STRENGTH/RADII OF WIND FIELDS...FAVORABLE NNW-SE
SECTOR WILL SPREAD NNWWD/INLAND WITH SOME EXPANSION ALSO POSSIBLE IN
EVENT OF ANY INTENSIFICATION. RADAR SRM TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE
BRIEF/SPORADIC AND MAINLY WEAK SHEAR COUPLETS WITH CELLS OFFSHORE
AND OVER MEX...BUT WITHOUT SUSTAINED/WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES UP TO THIS POINT. STG-SVR TSTM GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MOST INTENSE OUTER CELLS AND BANDS...OUTSIDE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
AMBIENT/GRADIENT WINDS.

REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST GUIDANCE ON TS
HERMINE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2010

[TexasF6]

there is a mesoscale discussion out for southern texas.[/quote]

Our local guy said tornadoes are not out of the realm of possibility for us in CENTEX. Not shocking. Isolated in nature of course.....

[cpdaman]

wow ....this thing spun up in a hurry....good thing it didn't have another day over water.

Aric are u really sure fluid dynamics that you are speaking about is causing this thing to slow down ....near land? any pro-mets chime in on this?

[tailgater]

Glad this BIG ole high wasn't in place 2 weeks ago.

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see how strong it can get in the final few hours before landfall, esp as the firctional effects really help to tighten up the system on the western side further.

[tolakram]

Saved Radar Loop, 40 frames. Looks like it stalled for now.

[Portastorm]

You beat me to it, KWT. We have to consider frictional rotation effects at this point which is no doubt helping to wind up Hermine even more. How many times have we seen this happen over the years, especially in the western Gulf.

[Stephanie]

Great radar tolakram!

[Swimdude]

That's a STRANGE radar loops--it practically looks like Hermine hit a brick wall. It's still moving, but juuuuuuuust barely. Weird.