ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Migle]

Definitely see an eyewall developing there. Looks like it will be a Northern Mexico landfall, above where Alex was.

[Steve]

>>Guys...its not moving north. There are occasional jogs to 340...and right now there is a big jog over the last 30 minutes back to 315...

Agreed. All models I looked at except GFDL and UKMET, eventually turn it up through STX heading north than NE (post-landfall). I think all Texans from the Valley up through the Hill Country and east get something out of Hermine.

[South Texas Storms]

thanks for the long radar loop. really helps to see the movement better.

[South Texas Storms]

the gfs and nam show most of the heaviest rain falling east of the core with a maxima going from corpus to san antonio through the hill country.

[Aric Dunn]

here comes another wobble back NNW very shortly... got to love physics.. lol

[fasterdisaster]

Landfall looks like it will be about 30 miles south of the border at this point.

[South Texas Storms]

here comes another wobble back NNW very shortly... got to love physics.. lol

how do you know another NNW wobble is coming soon?

[Aric Dunn]

here comes another wobble back NNW very shortly... got to love physics.. lol

how do you know another NNW wobble is coming soon?

Its a physical process that occurs in fluids that are rotating. Rotational fluid dynamics and you see this sort of wobbling all the time.

[supercane]

Latest VDM shows pressure only a mb lower, but higher flight-level winds:

000
URNT12 KNHC 062148
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/21:20:20Z
B. 24 deg 36 min N
097 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1350 m
D. 50 kt
E. 180 deg 28 nm
F. 277 deg 38 kt
G. 180 deg 30 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0210A HERMINE OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 21:22:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

Definitely a leftward jog the last few hours, as well as on recent radar. Surprised this time that recon did not find a forming eyewall, as it has become quite distinct on radar.

[Florida1118]

Latest VDM shows pressure only a mb lower, but higher flight-level winds:

000
URNT12 KNHC 062148
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/21:20:20Z
B. 24 deg 36 min N
097 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1350 m
D. 50 kt
E. 180 deg 28 nm
F. 277 deg 38 kt
G. 180 deg 30 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0210A HERMINE OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 21:22:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

Definitely a leftward jog the last few hours, as well as on recent radar. Surprised this time that recon did not find a forming eyewall, as it has become quite distinct on radar.
BTW, agree with others against the mods on the name issue. More on topic (and easily resolved with fact) than wobble wars.

Well at least Hermine should make landfall later tonight so not much more strengthening should happen...Anyway, Maybe the Mod made a mistake or something. We all make mistakes. If it was on purpose then I dont know. Name is realted with Hermine...But not all that important so i dont know. Im not going to join in the battle.

[Air Force Met]

"I deleted your post. Watch the sarcastic tone. Not sure where you usually post...but we don't tolerate that sort of post around here."

Got this message from one of the moderators here. Give me a break. How is talking about the storm names even remotely close to off topic? This place seems like a club that is closed off to newbies. I'll find a better place. By the way your Twitter account is lame and hardly ever updated. It was useless during Earl. Forums are so 1990s. Twitter is the future and you have no followers.

Well, I agree the name of the storm was on topic, but there's a better way to do this. And yeah, what mod was it?

I deleted his post. Let him go tweet.

Amazing that he slams a forum...after joining it and then getting rejected. Some kind of failed logic in that.

Back to the show.

[bamajammer4eva]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062201Z - 062300Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES PRODUCED BY TS HERMINE IS MRGL NOW BUT FCST TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM S-N ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.

TIME SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL VWP HODOGRAPHS AT BRO SHOW STEADY TENDENCY
FOR ENLARGEMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH NOW IN 100-200 J/KG RANGE
DEPENDING ON INPUT CELL MOTION USED. THIS TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL CENTER GETS CLOSER TO ANY GIVEN
POINT...WHEREUPON INCREASING TREND IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
SHOULD BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF. MEANWHILE SIMILAR TREND IN HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER N TOWARD TX COASTAL BEND...BUT DELAYED BY
SEVERAL HOURS IN STEP WITH RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO HERMINE. MOST
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR OVER
MIDDLE-OUTER SECTOR FROM NNW-SE OF CENTER. MLCAPE CURRENTLY IN
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AWAY FROM THICK CLOUDS/HEAVY PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING INLAND...HOWEVER
WEAK CINH AND VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL THETAE SHOULD KEEP EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS SFC-BASED EXCEPT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LARGE PRECIP
CORES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SMALL AREA COVERED BY BEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND AT LEAST MRGL INSTABILITY. GIVEN NHC FCST
TRACK OF CENTER AND STRENGTH/RADII OF WIND FIELDS...FAVORABLE NNW-SE
SECTOR WILL SPREAD NNWWD/INLAND WITH SOME EXPANSION ALSO POSSIBLE IN
EVENT OF ANY INTENSIFICATION. RADAR SRM TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE
BRIEF/SPORADIC AND MAINLY WEAK SHEAR COUPLETS WITH CELLS OFFSHORE
AND OVER MEX...BUT WITHOUT SUSTAINED/WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES UP TO THIS POINT. STG-SVR TSTM GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MOST INTENSE OUTER CELLS AND BANDS...OUTSIDE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
AMBIENT/GRADIENT WINDS.

REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST GUIDANCE ON TS
HERMINE.

..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2010

[Ivanhater]

In case some have not noticed, posts are being deleted that are not on topic. This has already been addressed and there will not be anymore warnings. Next step is a 3 day vacation. BACK ON TOPIC.

[supercane]

Regional conditions:
000
ASUS44 KEWX 062210
RWRTX
SOUTH TEXAS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATED FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* - THESE STATIONS ARE NOT NWS OR FAA STATIONS...AND ARE NOT SUBJECT
TO NWS AND FAA QUALITY CONTROL.

<snip>

TXZ248>255-062300-
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE HVY RAIN 81 77 89 NE9 29.73F FOG
PORT ISABEL LGT RAIN 84 79 85 NE13 29.73F HX 96
*SOUTH PADRE N/A 81 79 94 NE15G22 29.73S
HARLINGEN RAIN 82 79 89 NE15 29.73F HX 93
*HEBBRONVILLE PTSUNNY 91 68 47 E10G18 29.77F HX 94
MCALLEN PTSUNNY 87 73 62 NE15 29.74S HX 94
*WESLACO CLOUDY 87 74 64 E16G22 29.73F HX 95
FALFURRIAS CLOUDY 88 72 59 E10 29.75F HX 95
EDINBURG CLOUDY 88 73 60 E14 29.74F HX 95
*ZAPATA CLOUDY 88 73 60 E16G24 29.73S HX 95
$$

TXZ213>215-236>238-242>244-246-247-251-254-255-062300-
CMAN STATIONS

STATION/POSITION TIME TEMP WIND PRES WAVE
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER
(UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S)
SABINE PASS 2200 82 86 150/ 15/ 16 1014.7
SEA RIM ST PARK 2200 83 140/ 10/ 12 1013.6
GALVESTON PIER 2200 84 85 130/ 16/ 18 N/A
EAGLE POINT 2200 84 84 130/ 16/ 18 1013.3
MORGANS POINT 2200 83 85 130/ 5/ 9 1011.9
MISSION/ARANSAS 2100 82 90/ 12 1010.0
PORT O`CONNOR 2100 85 100/ 10/ 11 N/A
PORT ARANSAS 2200 83 86 60/ 14/ 15 1008.8
MALAQUITE BEACH 2200 83 86 70/ 15/ 16 N/A
BAFFIN BAY 2100 40/ 13/ 16 N/A
PORT ISABEL 2200 82 86 60/ 14/ 20 1006.8
$$

GMZ080-GMZ150>470-062300-
OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS

STATION/POSITION TIME TEMP WIND PRES WAVE
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER
(UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S)
20 E GALVESTON 2200 83 85 140/ 17/ 21 1012.3 6/ 8
35 NE PT MANSFLD 2200 80 86 80/ 14/ 17 1007.8 6/ 8
200 E PT ISABEL 2200 85 VRB 23 N/A
$$


ASMX46 KSGX 062210
RWRMX
MEXICAN WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 PM PDT MON SEP 06 2010

<snip>

NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MATAMOROS HVY RAIN 79 79 100 N14G25 29.74F VSB 1/2
MONCLOVA PTSUNNY 95 64 36 N6 29.84F HX 97
MONTERREY PTSUNNY 91 68 46 NE7 29.74F HX 95
NUEVO LAREDO MOSUNNY 90 75 62 N7 29.75F HX 100
PIEDRAS NEGRAS MOSUNNY 95 68 41 CALM 29.76F HX 99
REYNOSA PTSUNNY 93 77 59 NE9G21 29.73F HX 107
SALTILLO MOSUNNY 81 64 57 NE23 30.00F
TORREON MOSUNNY 90 48 24 N3 29.89
VICTORIA N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A

<snip>

[supercane]

Latest VDM. Pressure steady at 991 mb.

URNT12 KNHC 062217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/22:06:50Z
B. 24 deg 39 min N
097 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1345 m
D. 49 kt
E. 036 deg 7 nm
F. 120 deg 47 kt
G. 036 deg 22 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 17 C / 1527 m
J. 21 C / 1520 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0210A HERMINE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 57 KT E QUAD 21:22:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

BTW, system appears to have slowed alot on radar.

[Air Force Met]

BTW, system appears to have slowed alot on radar.

I have noticed the same thing. Looks like she doesn't want to go inland. Almost no movement at all in the last 45 minutes.

[hurricaneCW]

On radar, this looks like a 70-75 mph strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane and it's getting more and more impressive every hour. Very rarely do 60 mph tropical storms looks that good on radar, but we do have recon and they don't tell us that it's more than what the NHC tells us it is.

[latitude_20]

Incredible convection on the IR signatures.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Folks in S texas, looks like you might be seeing a strong TS later. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

If the NHC track varifies, you might be seeing strong TS winds and Hurricane force gusts. Mainly in Brownsville. Texas will be seeing the worst when it crosses into it from Mexico. Then Brownsville, S padre Island, and eventually Corpus Cristi will be in the Western half. (For Corpus, the Extreme Western Half.)

[Aric Dunn]

BTW, system appears to have slowed alot on radar.

I have noticed the same thing. Looks like she doesn't want to go inland. Almost no movement at all in the last 45 minutes.

its just a consequence of Fluid Dynamics. its similar to a top rotating on a table but more complicated being that its a fluid and more complicated since its a pressure systems.. but none the less a wobble..