ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Frank2]

The good news is that it's about 12 hours to landfall if it remains on a NW heading - the bad news is that it's about 12 hours before landfall if it strengthens quickly...

[lester]

Wow. This thing formed outta nowhere LOL.

The Gulf is back to making nothing into something!

[breaking wind]

Hermine is about out of time
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/windFi ... rm=Hermine

[Aric Dunn]

well its a little left of the track so it probably wont make it to the 11pm advisory before landfall.. unless it starts wobbling more N than NNW

[Blown Away]

Conditions always seem favorable for development in the western BOC.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 10, 2010090618, , BEST, 0, 241N, 966W, 50, 995, TS

[jinftl]

Visible loop certainly suggests a motion more along the lines of northwest...it appears to have taken a bit of a left hook towards Mexico. Looking more organized with each frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[South Texas Storms]

what can i expect here in san antonio from this?

[Aric Dunn]

what can i expect here in san antonio from this?

same as before ...

[Aric Dunn]

once the inner core gets a little more organized it could quickly ramp up to a hurricane.

[artist]

what can i expect here in san antonio from this?

this is from your NWS -

WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ATASCOSA...
BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DEWITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...MEDINA...
TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* EXPECT NUMEROUS BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD RAINS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

* THE CUMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR RIVER RISES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 8.5054&e=1

[CrazyC83]

With background pressures so high and extrapolation from 1003mb last night, I would not be shocked if Recon found Hurricane Hermine...

[fasterdisaster]

She's already looking a lot like a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

there is probably some 65 to may be 70mph out there the eyewall just does not seem organized enough..

[South Texas Storms]

is she still on the projected path? she looks a little to the left of it to me.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Air Force Met]

well its a little left of the track so it probably wont make it to the 11pm advisory before landfall.. unless it starts wobbling more N than NNW

It's a lot more west of the track.

First of all, the intermediate advisory located the center too far to the east. Second...the movement is closer to 310 instead of 335.

As I mentioned a couple of pages back...I think this goes at least 70 miles south of the border...probably closer to 100...well south of the current NHC track. It would have to move at 350 to make the NHC track and its just not going to do that. The 12Z 500mb showed a small ridge located north of Hermine...over central TX. It's not going through that ridge. There isn't enough time for this to get strong enough to get steered by the upper levels...and gain more latitude.

[South Texas Storms]

well its a little left of the track so it probably wont make it to the 11pm advisory before landfall.. unless it starts wobbling more N than NNW

It's a lot more west of the track.

First of all, the intermediate advisory located the center too far to the east. Second...the movement is closer to 310 instead of 335.

As I mentioned a couple of pages back...I think this goes at least 70 miles south of the border...probably closer to 100...well south of the current NHC track. It would have to move at 350 to make the NHC track and its just not going to do that. The 12Z 500mb showed a small ridge located north of Hermine...over central TX. It's not going through that ridge. There isn't enough time for this to get strong enough to get steered by the upper levels...and gain more latitude.

so does this mean less rain for us in central texas?

[Air Force Met]

so does this mean less rain for us in central texas?

You will still get the moisture feed...but it will be less organized...if that makes sense.